Введение

1. Источники архивных данных для расчета соотношения цена/производительность всех машин, упомянутых в этой книге, перечислены в приложении.

2. William D. Nordhaus, “Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing”, Journal of Economic History 67, no. 1 (March 2007): 128–59, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050707000058.

Глава 1. На какой из шести стадий мы находимся?

1. Alan M. Turing, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence”, Mind 59, no. 236 (October 1, 1950): 435, https://doi.org/10.1093/mind/LIX.236.433.

Глава 2. Изобретая разум заново

1. Alan M. Turing, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence”, Mind 59, no. 236 (October 1, 1950): 435, https://doi.org/10.1093/mind/LIX.236.433.

2. Alex Shashkevich, “Stanford Researcher Examines Earliest Concepts of Artificial Intelligence, Robots in Ancient Myths”, Stanford News, February 28, 2019, https://news.stanford.edu/2019/02/28/ancient-myths-reveal-early-fantasies-artificial-life.

3. John McCarthy et al., “A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence”, conference proposal, August 31, 1955, http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/history/dartmouth/dartmouth.html.

4. McCarthy et al., “Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project”.

5. Martin Childs, “John McCarthy: Computer Scientist Known as the Father of AI”, The Independent, November 1, 2011, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/john-mc carthy-computer-scientist-known-as-the-father-of-ai-6255307.html; Nello Christianini, “The Road to Artificial Intelligence: A Case of Data Over Theory,” New Scientist, October 26, 2016, https://institutions.newscientist.com/article/mg23230971-200-the-irresistible-rise-of-artificial-intelligence.

6. James Vincent, “Tencent Says There Are Only 300,000 AI Engineers Worldwide, but Millions Are Needed”, The Verge, December 5, 2017, https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/5/16737224/global-ai-talent-shortfall-tencent-report.

7. Jean-Francois Gagne, Grace Kiser, and Yoan Mantha, Global AI Talent Report 2019, Element AI, April 2019, https://jfgagne.ai/talent-2019.

8. Daniel Zhang et al., The AI Index 2022 Annual Report, AI Index Steering Committee, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford University, March 2022, 36, https://aiin dex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-AI–Index-Report_Master.pdf; Nestor Maslej et al., The AI Index 2023 Annual Report, AI Index Steering Committee, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford University, April 2023, 24, https://aiin dex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HAI_AI–Index-Report_2023.pdf.

9. Снижение корпоративных затрат на разработку ИИ в 2022 году по сравнению с 2021-м составило 26,7 %, но, скорее всего, было связано с макроэкономическими циклами, а не разворотом долгосрочной тенденции делать все большую ставку на ИИ. См. Maslej et al., AI Index 2023 Annual Report, 171, 184.

10. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (New York: Penguin, 2000; первое издание: Viking, 1999), 313; Dale Jacquette, “Who’s Afraid of the Turing Test?”, Behavior and Philosophy 20/21 (1993): 72, https://www.jstor.org/stable/27759284.

11. Katja Grace et al., “Viewpoint: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts”, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 62 (July 2018): 729–54, https:// doi.org /10.1613/jair.1.11222.

12. Чтобы узнать подробнее, на чем основывается мой прогноз и как он соотносится со взглядами других экспертов в области ИИ, см. Ray Kurzweil, “A Wager on the Turing Test: Why I Think I Will Win”, KurzweilAI.net, April 9, 2002, https://www.kurzweilai.net/a-wager-on-the-turing-test-why-i-think-i-will-win; Vincent C. Muller and Nick Bostrom, “Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion”, in Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence, ed. Vincent C. Müller (Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2016), 553–71, https://philpapers.org/archive/MLLFPI.pdf; Anthony Aguirre, “Date Weakly General AI Is Publicly Known”, Metaculus, последняя проверка доступности 26 апреля 2023 года, https://www.metaculus.com /questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised.

13. Aguirre, “Date Weakly General AI Is Publicly Known”.

14. Raffi Khatchadourian, “The Doomsday Invention”, New Yorker, November 23, 2015, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom.

15. Newell, J. C. Shaw, and H. A. Simon, “Report on a General Problem-Solving Program”, RAND P-1584, RAND Corporation, February 9, 1959, http://bitsavers.informatik.uni-stuttgart.de/pdf/rand/ipl/P-1584_Report_On_A_General_Problem-Solving_Pro gram_Feb59.pdf. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

16. Digital Equipment Corporation, PDP-1 Handbook (Maynard, MA: Digital Equipment Corporation, 1963), 10, http://s3data.computerhistory.org/pdp-1/DEC.pdp_1.1963.10263 6240.pdf.

17. Amin Vahdat and Mark Lohmeyer, “Enabling Next-Generation AI Workloads: Announcing TPU v5p and AI Hypercomputer”, Google Cloud, December 6, 2023, https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-learning/introducing-cloud-tpu-v5p-and-ai-hy percomputer.

18. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

19. V. L. Yu et al., “Antimicrobial Selection by a Computer: A Blinded Evaluation by Infectious Diseases Experts”, Journal of the American Medical Association 242, no. 12 (September 21, 1979): 1279–82, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/366606.

20. Bruce G. Buchanan and Edward Hance Shortliffe, eds., Rule-Based Expert Systems: The MYCIN Experiments of the Stanford Heuristic Programming Project (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1984); Edward Edelson, “Programmed to Think”, MOSAIC 11, no. 5 (September/ October 1980): 22, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=PU79ZK2tXeAC.

21. T. Grandon Gill, “Early Expert Systems: Where Are They Now?”, MIS Quarterly 19, no. 1 (March 1995): 51–81, https://www.jstor.org/stable/249711.

22. Краткое объяснение простым языком, каким именно образом машинное обучение снижает остроту проблемы потолка сложности, приведено в Deepanker Saxena, “Machine Learning vs. Rules Based Systems”, Socure, August 6, 2018, https://www.socure.com/blog/machine-learning-vs-rule-based-systems.

23. Cade Metz, “One Genius’ Lonely Crusade to Teach a Computer Common Sense”, Wired, March 24, 2016, https://www.wired.com/2016/03/doug-lenat-artificial-intelligence-com mon-sense-engine; “Frequently Asked Questions”, Cycorp, последняя проверка доступности 20 ноября 2021 года, https://cyc.com/faq.

24. Больше информации о проблеме «черного ящика» и непрозрачности ИИ содержится в Will Knight, “The Dark Secret at the Heart of AI”, MIT Technology Review, April 11, 2017, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai; “AI Detectives Are Cracking Open the Black Box of Deep Learning”, Science Magazine, YouTube video, July 6, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB_-LabED68; Paul Voosen, “How AI Detectives Are Cracking Open the Black Box of Deep Learning”, Science, July 6, 2017, https://doi.org /10.1126/science.aan7059; Harry Shum, “Explaining AI”, a16z, YouTube video, January 16, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI_L95qnVkM; Future of Life Institute, “Neel Nanda on What Is Going On Inside Neural Networks”, YouTube video, February 9, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUhO6st6M_0.

25. Отличный обзор по механистической интерпретируемости приведен в: Neel Nanda, Future of Life Institute, “Neel Nanda on What Is Going On Inside Neural Networks”.

26. Более подробно о методиках машинного обучения при неполных данных см. в Xander Steenbrugge, “An Introduction to Reinforcement Learning”, Arxiv Insights, YouTube video, April 2, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgvyzIkgxF0; Alan Joseph Bekker and Jacob Goldberger, “Training Deep Neural-Networks Based on Unreliable Labels”, 2016 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (Shanghai, 2016), 2682–86, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICASSP.2016.7472164; Nagarajan Natarajan et al., “Learning with Noisy Labels”, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26 (2013), https://papers.nips.cc/paper/5073-learning-with-noisy-labels; David Rolnick et al., “Deep Learning Is Robust to Massive Label Noise”, arXiv:1705.10694v3 [cs.LG], February 26, 2018, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.10694.pdf.

27. Больше информации о перцептроне, присущих ему ограничениях и о том, как некоторые виды нейросетей могут их обойти, см. Marvin L. Minsky and Seymour A. Papert, Perceptrons: An Introduction to Computational Geometry (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990; reissue of 1988 expanded edition); Melanie Lefkowitz, “Professor’s Perceptron Paved the Way for AI—60 Years Too Soon”, Cornell Chronicle, September 25, 2019, https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2019/09/professors-perceptron-paved-way-ai-60-years-too-soon; John Durkin, “Tools and Applications”, in Expert Systems: The Technology of Knowledge Management and Decision Making for the 21st Century, ed. Cornelius T. Leondes (San Diego: Academic Press, 2002), 45, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5kSam KhS56 °C; “Marvin Minsky: The Problem with Perceptrons (121/151)”, Web of Stories – Life Stories of Remarkable People, YouTube video, October 17, 2016, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=QW_srPO-LrI; Heinz Mühlenbein, “Limitations of Multi-Layer Perceptron Networks: Steps Towards Genetic Neural Networks”, Parallel Computing 14, no. 3 (August 1990): 249–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-8191(90)90079-O; Aniruddha Karajgi, “How Neural Networks Solve the XOR Problem”, Towards Data Science, November 4, 2020, https://towardsdatascience.com/how-neural-networks-solve-the-xor-problem-59763136bdd7.

28. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

29. Tim Fryer, “Da Vinci Drawings Brought to Life”, Engineering & Technology 14, no. 5 (May 21, 2019): 18, https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/05/da-vinci-drawings-brought-to-life.

30. Хронология возникновения жизни на Земле и более подробные научные сведения содержатся в: Michael Marshall, “Timeline: The Evolution of Life”, New Scientist, July 14, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17453; Dyani Lewis, “Where Did We Come From? A Primer on Early Human Evolution”, Cosmos, June 9, 2016, https://cosmos magazine.com/palaeontology/where-did-we-come-from-a-primer-on-early-human-evolution; John Hawks, “How Has the Human Brain Evolved?”, Scientific American, July 1, 2013, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-has-human-brain-evolved; Laura Freberg, Discovering Behavioral Neuroscience: An Introduction to Biological Psychology, 4th ed. (Boston: Cengage Learning, 2018), 62–63, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=HhBED wAAQBAJ; Jon H. Kaas, “Evolution of the Neocortex”, Current Biology 16, no. 21 (2006): R910–R914, https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(06)02290-1.pdf; R. Glenn Northcutt, “Evolution of Centralized Nervous Systems: Two Schools of Evolutionary Thought”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, suppl. 1 (June 22, 2012): 10626–33, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1201889109.

31. Marshall, “Timeline: The Evolution of Life”; Holly C. Betts et al., “Integrated Genomic and Fossil Evidence Illuminates Life’s Early Evolution and Eukaryote Origin”, Nature Ecology & Evolution 2 (August 20, 2018): 1556–62, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0644-x; Elizabeth Pennisi, “Life May Have Originated on Earth 4 Billion Years Ago, Study of Controversial Fossils Suggests”, Science, December 18, 2017, https://www.sciencemag.org /news/2017/12/life-may-have-originated-earth-4-billion-years-ago-study-controversial-fossils-suggests.

32. Ethan Siegel, “Ask Ethan: How Do We Know the Universe Is 13.8 Billion Years Old?”, Big Think, October 22, 2021, https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/universe-13-8-billion-years; Mike Wall, “The Big Bang: What Really Happened at Our Universe’s Birth?”, Space.com, October 21, 2011, https://www.space.com/13347-big-bang-origins-universe-birth.html; Nola Taylor Reed, “How Old Is Earth?”, Space.com, February 7, 2019, https:// www.space.com/24854-how-old-is-earth.html.

33. Marshall, “Timeline: The Evolution of Life”.

34. Marshall, “Timeline: The Evolution of Life”.

35. Freberg, Discovering Behavioral Neuroscience, 62–63; Kaas, “Evolution of the Neocortex”; R. Northcutt, “Evolution of Centralized Nervous Systems”; Frank Hirth, “On the Origin and Evolution of the Tripartite Brain”, Brain, Behavior and Evolution 76, no. 1 (October 2010): 3–10, https://doi.org/10.1159/000320218.

36. Kaas, “Evolution of the Neocortex”.

37. Два захватывающих видео о том, как работает естественный отбор: Hank Green, “Natural Selection: Crash Course Biology #14”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, April 30, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTftyFboC_M; Primer, “Simulating Natural Selection”, YouTube video, November 14, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZGbIK d0XrM.

38. Suzana Herculano-Houzel, “Coordinated Scaling of Cortical and Cerebellar Numbers of Neurons”, Frontiers in Neuroanatomy 4, no. 12 (March 10, 2010), https://doi.org/10.3389 /fnana.2010.00012.

39. Объяснение этого феномена см. в: Ainslie Johnstone, “The Amazing Phenomenon of Muscle Memory”, Medium, Oxford University, December 14, 2017, https:// medium.com/oxford-university/the-amazing-phenomenon-of-muscle-memory-fb1cc4c4726; Sara Chodosh, “Muscle Memory Is Real, But It’s Probably Not What You Think”, Popular Science, January 25, 2019, https://www.popsci.com/what-is-muscle-memory; Merim Bilalić, The Neuroscience of Expertise (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2017), 171–72, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=QILTDQAAQBAJ; The Brain from Top to Bottom, “The Motor Cortex”, McGill University, accessed November 20, 2021, https://thebrain.mcgill.ca/flash/i/i_06/i_06_cr/i_06_cr_mou/i_06_cr_mou.html.

40. Материалы по базисным функциям в контексте машинного обучения: “Lecture 17: Basis Functions”, Open Data Science Initiative, YouTube video, November 28, 2011, https://youtu.be/OOpfU3CvUkM?t=151; Yaser Abu-Mostafa, “Lecture 16: Radial Basis Functions”, Caltech, YouTube video, May 29, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= O8CfrnOPtLc.

41. Mayo Clinic, “Ataxia”, Mayo Clinic, последняя проверка доступности 20 ноября 2021 года, https://www.mayo clinic.org/diseases-conditions/ataxia/symptoms-causes/syc-20355652; Helen Thomson, “Woman of 24 Found to Have No Cerebellum in Her Brain”, New Scientist, September 10, 2014, https://institutions.newscientist.com/article/mg22329861-900-woman-of-24-found-to-have-no-cerebellum-in-her-brain; R. N. Lemon and S. A. Edgley, “Life Without a Cerebellum”, Brain 133, no. 3 (March 18, 2010): 652–54, https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awq030.

42. Подробнее о том, как в ходе спортивных тренировок происходит переход к неосознанной компетентности см. в: Bo Hanson, “Conscious Competence Learning Matrix”, Athlete Assessments, последняя проверка доступности 22 ноября 2021 года, https://athleteassessments.com/conscious-competence-learning-matrix.

43. Suzana Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers: A Linearly Scaled-Up Primate Brain”, Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 3, no. 31 (November 9, 2009), https://doi.org/10.3389/neuro.09.031.2009.

44. Herculano-Houzel, “Human Brain in Numbers”; Richard Apps, “Cerebellar Modules and Their Role as Operational Cerebellar Processing Units”, Cerebellum 17, no. 5 (June 6, 2018): 654–82, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12311-018-0952-3; Jan Voogd, “What We Do Not Know About Cerebellar Systems Neuroscience”, Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience 8, no. 227 (December 18, 2014), https://doi.org/10.3389/fnsys.2014.00227; Rhoshel K. Lenroot and Jay N. Giedd, “The Changing Impact of Genes and Environment on Brain Development During Childhood and Adolescence: Initial Findings from a Neuroimaging Study of Pediatric Twins”, Development and Psychopathology 20, no. 4 (Fall 2008): 1161–75, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954579408000552; Salvador Martinez et al., “Cellular and Molecular Basis of Cerebellar Development”, Frontiers in Neuroanatomy 7, no. 18 (June 26, 2013), https://doi.org/10.3389/fnana.2013.00018.

45. Fumiaki Sugahara et al., “Evidence from Cyclostomes for Complex Regionalization of the Ancestral Vertebrate Brain”, Nature 531, no. 7592 (February 15, 2016): 97–100, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16518; Leonard F. Koziol, “Consensus Paper: The Cerebellum’s Role in Movement and Cognition”, Cerebellum 13, no. 1 (February 2014): 151–77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12311-013-0511-x; Robert A. Barton and Chris Venditti, “Rapid Evolution of the Cerebellum in Humans and Other Great Apes”, Current Biology 24, no. 20 (October 20, 2014): 2440–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2014.08.056.

46. Более подробная информация на тему врожденных повадок животных содержится в: Jesse N. Weber, Brant K. Peterson, and Hopi E. Hoekstra, “Discrete Genetic Modules Are Responsible for Complex Burrow Evolution in Peromyscus Mice”, Nature 493, no. 7432 (January 17, 2013): 402–5, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature11816; Nicole L. Bedford and Hopi E. Hoekstra, “Peromyscus Mice as a Model for Studying Natural Variation”, eLife 4: e06813 (June 17, 2015), https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.06813; Do-Hyoung Kim et al., “Rescheduling Behavioral Subunits of a Fixed Action Pattern by Genetic Manipulation of Peptidergic Signaling”, PLoS Genetics 11, no. 9: e1005513 (September 24, 2015), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1005513.

47. Интересный доклад с объяснением концепции эволюционного моделирования: Keith Downing, “Evolutionary Computation: Keith Downing at TEDxTrondheim”, TEDx Talks, YouTube video, November 4, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3zUmfDd79s.

48. Больше информации о развитии и функционировании новой коры: Kaas, “Evolution of the Neocortex”; Jeff Hawkins and Sandra Blakeslee, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain Will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines (New York: Macmillan, 2007), 97–101, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Qg2dmntfxmQC; Clay Reid, “Lecture 3: The Structure of the Neocortex”, Allen Institute, YouTube video, September 6, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhdcYNmW0zY; Joan Stiles et al., Neural Plasticity and Cognitive Development: Insights from Children with Perinatal Brain Injury (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012), 41–45, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=QiN pAgAAQBAJ.

49. Brian K. Hall and Benedikt Hallgrimsson, Strickberger’s Evolution, 4th ed. (Sudbury, MA: Jones & Bartlett Learning, 2011), 533; Kaas, “Evolution of the Neocortex”; Jon H. Kaas, “The Evolution of Brains from Early Mammals to Humans, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Cognitive Science 4, no. 1 (November 8, 2012): 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcs.1206.

50. Больше информации о мел-палеогеновом вымирании: Michael Greshko and National Geographic Staff, “What Are Mass Extinctions, and What Causes Them?”, National Geographic, September 26, 2019, https:// www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/mass-extinction; Victoria Jaggard, “Why Did the Dinosaurs Go Extinct?”, National Geographic, July 31, 2019, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/dinosaur-extinction; Emily Singer, “How Dinosaurs Shrank and Became Birds”, Quanta, June 2, 2015, https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-birds-evolved-from-dinosaurs-20150602.

51. Yasuhiro Itoh, Alexandros Poulopoulos, and Jeffrey D. Macklis, “Unfolding the Folding Problem of the Cerebral Cortex: Movin’ and Groovin’”, Developmental Cell 41, no. 4 (May 22, 2017): 332–34, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1534580717303933; Jeff Hawkins, “What Intelligent Machines Need to Learn from the Neocortex”, IEEE Spectrum, June 2, 2017, https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/what-intelligent-machines-need-to-learn-from-the-neocortex.

52. Jean-Didier Vincent and Pierre-Marie Lledo, The Custom-Made Brain: Cerebral Plasticity, Regeneration, and Enhancement, trans. Laurence Garey (New York: Columbia University Press, 2014), 152.

53. Учебная лекция о неокортексе и его колонках без лишних технических деталей: Brains Explained, “The Neocortex”, YouTube video, September 16, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2mYTaJPVnc; Clay Reid, “Lecture 3: The Structure of the Neocortex”.

54. V. B. Mountcastle, “The Columnar Organization of the Neocortex”, Brain 120, no. 4 (April 1997): 701–22, https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/120.4.701; Olaf Sporns, Giulio Tononi, and Rolf Kötter, “The Human Connectome: A Structural Description of the Human Brain”, PLoS Computational Biology 1, no. 4: e42 (September 30, 2005), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0010042; David J. Heeger, “Theory of Cortical Function”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 8 (February 6, 2017): 1773–82, https://doi.org /10.1073/pnas.1619788114.

55. Это несколько ниже, чем оценка на базе моих прошлых исследований, которая была приведена в книге «Эволюция разума». Однако, учитывая, что данные, на которых строятся эти выводы, все равно неточны, можно считать, что обе величины более-менее сопоставимы. Заметим, что это число может отличаться от человека к человеку.

56. Jeff Hawkins, Subutai Ahmad, and Yuwei Cui, “A Theory of How Columns in the Neocortex Enable Learning the Structure of the World”, Frontiers in Neural Circuits 11, no. 81 (October 25, 2017), https://doi.org/10.3389/fncir.2017.00081; Jeff Hawkins, A Thousand Brains: A New Theory of Intelligence (New York: Basic Books, 2021).

57. Mountcastle, “Columnar Organization of the Neocortex”; Sporns, Tononi, and Kötter, “The Human Connectome”; Heeger, “Theory of Cortical Function”.

58. Malcolm W. Browne, “Who Needs Jokes? Brain Has a Ticklish Spot”, New York Times, March 10, 1998, https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/10/science/who-needs-jokes-brain-has-a-ticklish-spot.html; Itzhak Fried et al., “Electric Current Stimulates Laughter”, Scientific Correspondence 391, no. 650 (February 12, 1998), https://doi.org/10.1038/35536.

59. Доступное объяснение механизма восприятия боли мозгом дано в: Kristin Muench, “Pain in the Brain”, NeuWrite West, November 10, 2015, www.neuwritewest.org/blog/pain-in-the-brain.

60. Browne, “Who Needs Jokes?”

61. Robert Wright, “Scientists Find Brain’s Irony-Detection Center!” Atlantic, August 5, 2012, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/08/scientists-find-brains-irony-detection-center/260728.

62. “Bigger Brains: Complex Brains for a Complex World”, Smithsonian Institution, January 16, 2019, http://humanorigins.si.edu/human-characteristics/brains; David Robson, “A Brief History of the Brain”, New Scientist, September 21, 2011, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128311-800.

63. Stephanie Musgrave et al., “Tool Transfers Are a Form of Teaching Among Chimpanzees”, Scientific Reports 6, article 34783 (October 11, 2016), https://doi.org/10.1038 /srep34783.

64. Hanoch Ben-Yami, “Can Animals Acquire Language?”, Scientific American, March 1, 2017, https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/can-animals-acquire-language; Klaus Zuberbühler, “Syntax and Compositionality in Animal Communication”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 375, article 20190062 (November 18, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0062.

65. Доступное объяснение процесса появления большого пальца и его роли в ходе эволюции дано в: “Where Do Our Opposable Thumbs Come From?”, HHMI BioInteractive, YouTube video, April 24, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDSkmb4UTlo.

66. Ryan V. Raut et al., “Hierarchical Dynamics as a Macroscopic Organizing Principle of the Human Brain”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 35 (August 12, 2020): 20890–97, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1201889109.

67. Herculano-Houzel, “Human Brain in Numbers”; Sporns, Tononi, and Kötter, “The Human Connectome”; Ji Yeoun Lee, “Normal and Disordered Formation of the Cerebral Cortex: Normal Embryology, Related Molecules, Types of Migration, Migration Disorders”, Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society 62, no. 3 (May 1, 2019): 265–71, https://doi.org/10.3340/jkns.2019.0098; Christopher Johansson and Anders Lansner, “Towards Cortex Sized Artificial Neural Systems”, Neural Networks 20, no. 1 (January 2007): 48–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neunet.2006.05.029.

68. Более глубокие сведения о неокортексе и нашем понимании мозговых структур, обеспечивающих работу мышления, см. Matthew Barry Jensen, “Cerebral Cortex”, Khan Academy, accessed November 20, 2021, https://www.khanacademy.org/science/health-and-medicine/human-anatomy-and-physiology/nervous-system-introduction/v/cerebral-cortex; Hawkins, Ahmad, and Cui, “Theory of How Columns in the Neocortex Enable Learning”; Jeff Hawkins et al., “A Framework for Intelligence and Cortical Function Based on Grid Cells in the Neocortex”, Frontiers in Neural Circuits 12, no. 121 (January 11, 2019), https://doi.org/10.3389/fncir.2018.00121; Baoguo Shi et al., “Different Brain Structures Associated with Artistic and Scientific Creativity: A Voxel-Based Morphometry Study”, Scientific Reports 7, no. 42911 (February 21, 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/srep42911; Barbara L. Finlay and Kexin Huang, “Developmental Duration as an Organizer of the Evolving Mammalian Brain: Scaling, Adaptations, and Exceptions”, Evolution and Development 22, nos. 1–2 (December 3, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1111/ede.12329.

69. Общий обзор и детальная лекция об ассоциативной природе памяти: Shelly Fan, “How the Brain Makes Memories: Scientists Tap Memory’s Neural Code”, SingularityHub, July 10, 2015, https://singularityhub.com/2015/07/10/how-the-brain-makes-memories-scientists-tap-memorys-neural-code; Christos Papadimitriou, “Formation and Association of Symbolic Memories in the Brain”, Simons Institute, YouTube video, March 31, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZtYKApSTto.

70. О переходе от креационизма к теории эволюции путем естественного отбора: Phillip Sloan, “Evolutionary Thought Before Darwin”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2019), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/evolution-before-darwin; Christoph Marty, “Darwin on a Godless Creation: ‘It’s Like Confessing to a Murder’”, Scientific American, February 12, 2009, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/charles-darwin-confessions.

71. Более подробно об исследованиях Чарлза Лайеля и их влиянии на Дарвина см. Richard A. Fortey, “Charles Lyell and Deep Time”, Geoscience 21, no. 9 (October 2011), https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/October-2011/Charles-Lyell-and-deep-time; Gary Stix, “Darwin’s Living Legacy”, Scientific American 300, no. 1 (January 2009): 38–43, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26001418; Charles Darwin, On the Origin of Species, 6th ed. (London: John Murray, 1859; Project Gutenberg, 2013), https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2009/2009-h/2009-h.htm.

72. Walter F. Cannon, “The Uniformitarian-Catastrophist Debate”, Isis 51, no. 1 (March 1960): 38–55, https://www.jstor.org/stable/227604; Jim Morrison, “The Blasphemous Geologist Who Rocked Our Understanding of Earth’s Age”, Smithsonian, August 29, 2016, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/father-modern-geology-youve-never-heard-180960203.

73. Charles Darwin and James T. Costa, The Annotated Origin: A Facsimile of the First Edition of On the Origin of Species (Cambridge, MA, and London: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2009), 95, https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Annotated_i_Origin_i/C0E03ilhSz4C.

74. Gordon Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”, Electronics 38, no. 8 (April 19, 1965), https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/2017/03 /102770822-05-01-acc.pdf; Computer History Museum, “1965: ‘Moore’s Law’ Predicts the Future of Integrated Circuits”, Computer History Museum, accessed October 12, 2021, https://www.computerhistory.org/siliconengine/moores-law-predicts-the-future-of-in tegrated-circuits; Fernando J. Corbató et al., The Compatible Time-Sharing System: A Programmer’s Guide (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990), http://www.bitsavers.org/pdf/mit/ctss /CTSS_ProgrammersGuide.pdf.

75. Никто пока не знает, какой будет следующая компьютерная парадигма. Обзор перспективных исследований в этом направлении можно найти в: Jeff Hecht, “Nanomaterials Pave the Way for the Next Computing Generation”, Nature 608, S2–S3 (2022), https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02147-3; Peng Lin et al., “Three-Dimensional Memristor Circuits as Complex Neural Networks”, Nature Electronics 3, no. 4 (April 13, 2020): 225–32, https://doi.org/10.1038 /s41928-020-0397-9; Zhihong Chen, “Gate-All-Around Nanosheet Transistors Go 2D”, Nature Electronics 5, no. 12 (December 12, 2022): 830–31, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41928-022-00899-4.

76. Первой машиной для выполнения больших объемов подсчетов стал статистический табулятор Холлерита. Тенденция к экспоненциальному улучшению соотношения цена/производительность держится с тех пор и до наших дней. См. See Emile Cheysson, The Electric Tabulating Machine, trans. Arthur W. Fergusson (New York: C. C. Shelley, 1892), 2, https://books.google.com/books?id=rJgsAAAAYAAJ; Robert Sobel, Thomas Watson, Sr.: IBM and the Computer Revolution (Washington, DC: BeardBooks, 2000; originally published as I.B.M., Colossus in Transition by Times Books in 1981), 17, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Thomas_Watson_Sr/H8EFNMBGpY4C; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 12, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL; Marguerite Zientara, “Herman Hollerith: Punched Cards Come of Age”, Computerworld 15, no. 36 (September 7, 1981): 35, https://books.google.com/books?id=tk74jLc6HggC&pg=PA35&lpg=PA35; Frank da Cruz, “Hollerith 189 °Census Tabulator”, Columbia University Computing History, April 17, 2021, http://www.columbia.edu/cu/computinghistory/census-tabulator.html.

77. Nick Bostrom, “Nick Bostrom The Intelligence Explosion Hypothesis eDay 2012”, eAcast55, YouTube video, August 9, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFE-96XA92w.

78. DeepMind, “AlphaGo ”, DeepMind, последняя проверка доступности 20 ноября 2021 года, https://deepmind.com /research/case-studies/alphago-the-story-so-far.

79. DeepMind, “AlphaGo ”.

80. Захватывающий обзор матча Г. Каспарова с Deep Blue и то, какое значение он оказал на отрасль ИИ, можно прочесть в: Mark Robert Anderson, “Twenty Years On from Deep Blue vs. Kasparov: How a Chess Match Started the Big Data Revolution”, The Conversation, May 11, 2017, https://theconversation.com/twenty-years-on-from-deep-blue-vs-kasparov-how-a-chess-match-started-the-big-data-revolution-76882.

81. DeepMind, “AlphaGo Zero: Starting from Scratch”, DeepMind, October 18, 2017, https:// deepmind.com/blog/article/alphago-zero-starting-scratch; DeepMind, “AlphaGo”; Tom Simonite, “This More Powerful Version of AlphaGo Learns on Its Own”, Wired, October 18, 2017, https://www.wired.com/story/this-more-powerful-version-of-alphago-learns-on-its-own; David Silver et al., “Mastering the Game of Go with Deep Neural Networks and Tree Search”, Nature 529, no. 7587 (January 27, 2016): 484–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16961.

82. Carl Engelking, “The AI That Dominated Humans in Go Is Already Obsolete”, Discover, October 18, 2017, https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/the-ai-that-dominated-humans-in-go-is-already-obsolete; DeepMind, “AlphaGo China”, DeepMind, последняя проверка доступности 20 ноября 2021 года, https://deepmind.com/alphago-china; DeepMind, “AlphaGo Zero: Starting from Scratch”.

83. DeepMind, “AlphaGo Zero: Starting from Scratch”.

84. David Silver et al., “AlphaZero: Shedding New Light on Chess, Shogi, and Go”, DeepMind, December 6, 2018, https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphazero-shedding-new-light-grand-games-chess-shogi-and-go.

85. Julian Schrittwiese et al., “MuZero: Mastering Go, Chess, Shogi and Atari Without Rules”, DeepMind, December 23, 2020, https://deepmind.com/blog/article/muzero-mastering-go-chess-shogi-and-atari-without-rules.

86. AlphaStar Team, “AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II ”, DeepMind, January 24, 2019, https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii; Noam Brown and Tuomas Sandholm, “Superhuman AI for Heads-Up No-Limit Poker: Libratus Beats Top Professionals”, Science 359, no. 6374 (January 26, 2018): 418–24, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao1733; Cade Metz, “Inside Libratus, the Poker AI That Out-Bluffed the Best Humans”, Wired, February 1, 2017, https://www.wired.com/2017/02/libratus.

87. Подробная информация об игре «Дипломатия»: “Diplomacy: Running the Game #40, Politics #3”, Matthew Colville, YouTube video, July 15, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= HWt0AQWjhPg; Ben Harsh, “Harsh Rules: Let’s Learn to Play Diplomacy”, Harsh Rules, YouTube video, August 9, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-sSWsBdbNI; Blake Eskin, “World Domination: The Game”, Washington Post, November 14, 2004, https:// www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/magazine/2004/11/14/world-domination-the-game/b65c9d9f-71c7-4846-961f-6dcdd1891e01; David Hill, “The Board Game of the Alpha Nerds”, Grantland, June 18, 2014, https://grantland.com/features/diplomacy-the-board-game-of-the-alpha-nerds.

88. Matthew Hutson, “AI Learns the Art of Diplomacy”, Science, November 22, 2022, https:// www.science.org/content/article/ai-learns-art-diplomacy-game; Yoram Bachrach and János Kramár, “AI for the Board Game Diplomacy”, DeepMind, December 6, 2022, https://www.deepmind.com/blog/ai-for-the-board-game-diplomacy.

89. Ira Boudway and Joshua Brustein, “Waymo ’s Long-Term Commitment to Safety Drivers in Autonomous Cars”, Bloomberg, January 13, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti cles/2020-01-13/waymo-s-long-term-commitment-to-safety-drivers-in-autonomous-cars.

90. Aaron Pressman, “Google ’s Waymo Reaches 20 Million Miles of Autonomous Driving”, Fortune, January 7, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/googles-waymo-reaches-20-million-miles-of-autonomous-driving.

91. Darrell Etherington, “Waymo Has Now Driven 10 Billion Autonomous Miles in Simulation”, TechCrunch, July 10, 2019, https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/10/waymo-has-now-driven-10-billion-autonomous-miles-in-simulation.

92. Gabriel Goh et al., “Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks”, Distill, March 4, 2021, https://distill.pub/2021/multimodal-neurons.

93. Больше информации о USE: Yinfei Yang and Amin Ahmad, “Multilingual Universal Sentence Encoder for Semantic Retrieval”, Google Research, July 12, 2019, https://ai.googleblog.com/2019/07/multilingual-universal-sentence-encoder.html; Yinfei Yang and Chris Tar, “Advances in Semantic Textual Similarity”, Google Research, May 17, 2018, https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/05/advances-in-semantic-textual-similarity.html; Daniel Cer et al., “Universal Sentence Encoder”, arXiv:1803.11175v2 [cs.CL], April 12, 2018, https:// arxiv.org/abs/1803.11175.

94. Rachel Syme, “Gmail Smart Replies and the Ever-Growing Pressure to E-Mail Like a Machine”, New Yorker, November 28, 2018, https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/gmail-smart-replies-and-the-ever-growing-pressure-to-e-mail-like-a-machine.

95. Подробнее о том, как работают трансформеры, а также оригинальная научная статья: Giuliano Giacaglia, “How Transformers Work”, Towards Data Science, March 10, 2019, https://towardsdatascience.com/transformers-141e32e69591; Ashish Vaswani et al., “Attention Is All You Need”, arXiv:1706.03762v5 [cs.CL], December 6, 2017, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.03762.pdf.

96. Irene Solaiman et al., “GPT-2: 1.5B Release”, OpenAI, November 5, 2019, https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release.

97. Tom B. Brown et al., “Language Models Are Few-Shot Learners”, arXiv:2005.14165 [cs.CL], July 22, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165.

98. Jack Ray et al., “Language Modelling at Scale: Gopher, Ethical Considerations, and Retrieval”, DeepMind, December 8, 2021, https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval.

99. Pandu Nayak, “Understanding Searches Better Than Ever Before”, Google, October 25, 2019, https://blog.google/products/search/search-language-understanding-bert; William Fedus et al., “Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity”, arXiv:2101.03961 [cs.LG], January 11, 2021, https://arxiv.org/abs /2101.03961.

100. Подробная информация о GPT-3: Greg Brockman et al., “OpenAI API”, Open-AI, June 11, 2020, https://openai.com/blog/openai-api; Brown et al., “Language Models Are Few-Shot Learners”; Kelsey Piper, “GPT-3, Explained: This New Language AI Is Uncanny, Funny – and a Big Deal”, Vox, August 13, 2020, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21355768/gpt-3-ai-openai-turing-test-language; “GPT-3 Demo: New AI Algorithm Changes How We Interact with Technology”, Disruption Theory, YouTube video, August 28, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8V20HkoiNtc.

101. David Cole, “The Chinese Room Argument”, in The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2020), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2020/entries /chinese-room; Amanda Askell (@amandaaskell), “GPT-3 ’s completion of the Chinese room argument from Searle’s ‘Minds, Brains, and Programs’ (original text is in bold)”, Twitter, July 17, 2020, https://twitter.com/AmandaAskell/status/1284186919606251521; David J. Chalmers, The Conscious Mind: In Search of a Fundamental Theory (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 327.

102. Cade Metz, “Meet GPT-3. It Has Learned to Code (and Blog and Argue)”, New York Times, November 24, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/science/artificial-intelligence-ai-gpt3.html.

103. Больше информации о LaMDA и примеры разговоров, в которых она притворяется карликовой планетой Плутон или бумажным самолетиком: Eli Collins and Zoubin Ghahramani, “LaMDA: Our Breakthrough Conversation Technology”, Google, May 18, 2021, https:// blog.google/technology/ai/lamda; “Watch Google’s AI LaMDA Program Talk to Itself at Length (Full Conversation)”, CNET Highlights, YouTube video, May 18, 2021, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUSSfo5nCdM.

104. Jeff Dean, “Google Research: Themes from 2021 and Beyond”, Google Research, January 11, 2022, https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/01/google-research-themes-from-2021-and.html.

105. Примеры удивительно креативных изображений, созданных нейросетью DALL-E: Aditya Ramesh et al., “Dall-E: Creating Images from Text”, OpenAI, January 5, 2021, https://openai.com/research/dall-e.

106. “Dall-E 2”, OpenAI, accessed June 30, 2022, https://openai.com/dall-e-2.

107. Chitwan Saharia et al., “Imagen”, Google Research, Brain Team, Google, accessed June 30, 2022, https://imagen.research.google.

108. Saharia et al., “Imagen”.

109. Scott Reed et al., “A Generalist Agent”, DeepMind, May 12, 2022, https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent.

110. Wojciech Zaremba et al., “OpenAI Codex ”, OpenAI, August 10, 2021, https://openai.com/blog/openai-codex.

111. AlphaCode Team, “Competitive Programming with AlphaCode”, DeepMind, December 8, 2022, https://www.deepmind.com/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode; Yujia Li et al., “Competition-Level Code Generation with AlphaCode”, arXiv:2203.07814v1 [cs.PL], February 8, 2022, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.07814.pdf.

112. Aakanksha Chowdhery, “PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways”, arXiv:2204.02311v3 [cs.CL], April 19, 2022, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.02311.pdf; Sharan Narang et al., “Pathways Language Model (PaLM): Scaling to 540 Billion Parameters for Breakthrough Performance”, Google AI Blog, April 4, 2022, https://ai.googleblog.com/2022 /04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html.

113. Chowdhery, “PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways”.

114. Chowdhery, “PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways”.

115. Chowdhery, “PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways”.

116. OpenAI, “Introducing ChatGPT”, OpenAI, November 30, 2022, https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt#OpenAI.

117. Krystal Hu, “ChatGPT Sets Record for Fastest-Growing User Base – Analyst Note”, Reuters, February 2, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01.

118. Kalley Huang, “Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach”, New York Times, January 16, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/technol ogy/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-universities.html; Emma Bowman, “A College Student Created an App That Can Tell Whether AI Wrote an Essay”, NPR, January 9, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/01/09/1147549845/gptzero-ai-chatgpt-edward-tian-plagiarism; Patrick Wood and Mary Louise Kelly, “‘Everybody Is Cheating’: Why This Teacher Has Adopted an Open ChatGPT Policy”, NPR, January 26, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023 /01/26/1151499213/chatgpt-ai-education-cheating-classroom-wharton-school; Matt O’Brien and Jocelyn Gecker, “Cheaters Beware: ChatGPT Maker Releases AI Detection Tool”, Associated Press, January 31, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/technology-education-col leges-and-universities-france-a0ab654549de387316404a7be019116b; Geoffrey A. Fowler, “We Tested a New ChatGPT-Detector for Teachers. It Flagged an Innocent Student”, Washington Post, April 3, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/01 /chatgpt-cheating-detection-turnitin.

119. OpenAI, “GPT-4 ”, OpenAI, March 14, 2023, https://openai.com/research/gpt-4; OpenAI, “GPT-4 Technical Report”, arXiv:2303.08774v3 [cs.CL], March 27, 2023, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf; OpenAI, “GPT-4 System Card”, OpenAI, March 23, 2023, https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf.

120. OpenAI, “Introducing GPT-4 ”, YouTube video, March 15, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-khbXchTeE.

121. Daniel Feldman (@d_feldman), «Слева ответ GPT-3.5. Справа – GPT-4. Если вам показалось, что ответ слева говорит о том, что у GPT-3.5 нет внутренней модели мира, вам придется согласиться, что ответ справа означает, что у GPT-4 она есть», Twitter, March 17, 2023, https://twitter.com/d_feldman/status/1636955260680847361.

122. Danny Driess and Pete Florence, “PaLM – E: An Embodied Multimodal Language Model”, Google Research, March 10, 2023, https://ai.googleblog.com/2023/03/palm-e-embodied-multimodal-language.html; Danny Driess et al., “PaLM-E: An Embodied Multimodal Language Model”, arXiv:2303.03378v1 [cs.LG], March 6, 2023, https://arxiv.org/pdf /2303.03378.pdf.

123. Sundar Pichai and Demis Hassabis, “Introducing Gemini: Our Largest and Most Capable AI Model”, Google, December 6, 2023, https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai; Sundar Pichai, “An Important Next Step on Our AI Journey”, Google, February 6, 2023, https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates; Sarah Fielding, “Google Bard Is Switching to a More ‘Capable’ Language Model, CEO Confirms”, Engadget, March 31, 2023, https://www.engadget.com/google-bard-is-switching-to-a-more-capable-language-model-ceo-confirms-133028933.html; Yusuf Mehdi, “Confirmed: The New Bing Runs on OpenAI ’s GPT-4 ”, Microsoft Bing Blogs, March 14, 2023, https://blogs.bing.com/search/march_2023/Confirmed-the-new-Bing-runs-on-OpenAI%E2%80 %99s-GPT-4; Tom Warren, “Hands-on with the New Bing: Microsoft’s Step Beyond ChatGPT”, The Verge, February 8, 2023, https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/8/23590873 /microsoft-new-bing-chatgpt-ai-hands-on.

124. Johanna Voolich Wright, “A New Era for AI and Google Workspace”, Google, March 14, 2023, https://workspace.google.com/blog/product-announcements/generative-ai; Jared Spataro, “Introducing Microsoft 365 Copilot – Your Copilot for Work”, Official Microsoft Blog, March 16, 2023, https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/03/16/introducing-microsoft-365-copilot-your-copilot-for-work.

125. Markus Anderljung et al., “Compute Funds and Pre-Trained Models”, Centre for the Governance of AI, April 11, 2022, https://www.governance.ai/post/compute-funds-and-pre-trained-models; Jaime Sevilla et al., “Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning”, arXiv:2202.05924v2 [cs.LG], March 9, 2022, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.05924.pdf; Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, “AI and Compute”, OpenAI, May 16, 2018, https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute.

126. Jacob Stern, “GPT-4 Has the Memory of a Goldfish”, Atlantic, March 17, 2023, https:// www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/03/gpt-4-has-memory-context-window/673426.

127. Экстраполируя долгосрочную тенденцию, которая характеризуется удвоением за 1,34 года с 1983-го. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

128. Во время подготовки этой книги прогресс в скорости обучения ИИ, согласно данным тестов MLPerf, идет в пять раз быстрее, чем было бы за счет только увеличения плотности расположения транзисторов. Основную роль играют в совокупности оптимизация алгоритмов и модернизация чипов. См. Samuel K. Moore, “AI Training Is Outpacing Moore’s Law”, IEEE Spectrum, December 2, 2021, https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-training-mlperf.

129. Во время написания этой книги цена на GPT-3.5 API составляла 1 доллар за 500 000 токенов (примерно 370 000 слов). Когда книга появится на полках, цена, скорее всего, будет еще ниже. См. Ben Dickson, “OpenAI Is Reducing the Price of the GPT-3 API – Here’s Why It Matters”, VentureBeat, August 25, 2022, https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-is-reducing-the-price-of-the-gpt-3-api-heres-why-it-matters; OpenAI, “Introducing ChatGPT and Whisper APIs”, OpenAI, March 1, 2023, https://openai.com/blog/introducing-chatgpt-and-whisper-apis; OpenAI, “What Are Tokens and How to Count Them?”, OpenAI, последняя проверка доступности 30 апреля 2023 года, https://help.openai.com/en/articles/4936856-what-are-tokens-and-how-to-count-them.

130. Stephen Nellis, “Nvidia Shows New Research on Using AI to Improve Chip Designs”, Reuters, March 27, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-shows-new-research-using-ai-improve-chip-designs-2023-03-28.

131. Blaise Aguera y Arcas, “Do Large Language Models Understand Us?”, Medium, December 16, 2021, https://medium.com/@blaisea/do-large-language-models-understand-us-6f881d6d8e75.

132. Более совершенные алгоритмы снижают количество вычислений, необходимых для достижения определенного уровня обученности нейросети. Большое количество исследований подтверждают, что для многих задач развитие алгоритмов столь же важно, как и рост возможностей аппаратного обеспечения. Согласно статье 2022 года, улучшенные алгоритмы снижали требования к вычислительной мощности для решения одних и тех же задач в два раза каждые 9 месяцев в период 2012–2021 годов. See Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu, “Algorithmic Progress in Computer Vision”, arXiv:2212.05153v4 [cs.CV] August 24, 2023, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.05153.pdf; Katja Grace, Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains, Machine Intelligence Research Institute technical report 2013-3, December 9, 2013, https://intelligence.org/files/AlgorithmicProgress.pdf.

133. Anderljung et al., “Compute Funds and Pre-Trained Models”.

134. Sevilla et al., “Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning”; Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

135. Anderljung et al., “Compute Funds and Pre-Trained Models”; Sevilla et al., “Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning”; Amodei and Hernandez, “AI and Compute”.

136. “Dallas Fed Energy Survey”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, March 27, 2019, https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2019/1901.aspx#tab-questions.

137. Отличное видео для знакомства с технологиями обработки больших объемов данных: Rebecca Tickle “What Is Big Data?”, Computerphile, YouTube video, May 15, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4bf_uuMC-g.

138. Для более глубокого погружения в концепцию взрывного роста интеллекта см. Nick Bostrom, “The Intelligence Explosion Hypothesis – eDay 2012”, EMERCE, YouTube video, November 19, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3FMpn321zs; Luke Muehlhauser and Anna Salamon, “Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import”, in Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment, ed. Amnon Eden et al. (Berlin: Springer, 2013), https://intelligence.org/files/IE-EI.pdf; Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Recursive Self-Improvement”, LessWrong.com, December 1, 2008, https://www.lesswrong.com /posts/JBadX7rwdcRFzGuju/recursive-self-improvement; Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Hard Takeoff”, LessWrong.com, December 2, 2008, https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tjH8XPxAn r6JRbh7k/hard-takeoff; Eliezer Yudkowsky, Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics, Machine Intelligence Research Institute technical report 2013-1, September 13, 2013, https://intelli gence.org/files/IEM.pdf; I. J. Good, “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine”, Advances in Computers 6 (1966): 31–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2458(08) 60418-0; Ephrat Livni, “The Mirror Test for Animal Self-Awareness Reflects the Limits of Human Cognition”, Quartz, December 19, 2018, https://qz.com/1501318/the-mirror-test-for-animals-reflects-the-limits-of-human-cognition; Darold A. Treffert, “The Savant Syndrome: An Extraordinary Condition. A Synopsis: Past, Present, Future”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364, no. 1522 (May 27, 2009): 1351–57, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2008.0326.

139. Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky, The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, 2013, https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf.

140. Hanson and Yudkowsky, Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate.

141. Jon Brodkin, “1.1 Quintillion Operations per Second: US Has World’s Fastest Supercomputer”, Ars Technica, May 31, 2022, https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022 /05/1-1-quintillion-operations-per-second-us-has-worlds-fastest-supercomputer; “November 2022”, Top500.org, последняя проверка доступности 14 ноября 2023 года, https://www.top500.org/lists/top500 /2022/11.

142. Отличное исследование темы эмуляции мозга с разных точек зрения и сводка оценок, полученных разными методами: Joseph Carlsmith, How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?, Open Philanthropy, September 11, 2020, https://www.open philanthropy.org/brain-computation-report; “Brain Performance in FLOPS”, AI Impacts, July 26, 2015, https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-flops.

143. Herculano-Houzel, “Human Brain in Numbers”; David A. Drachman, “Do We Have Brain to Spare?”, Neurology 64, no. 12 (June 27, 2005), https://doi.org/10.1212 /01.WNL.0000166914.38327.BB; Ernest L. Abel, Behavioral Teratogenesis and Behavioral Mutagenesis: A Primer in Abnormal Development (New York: Plenum Press, 1989), 113, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=gV0rBgAAQBAJ.

144. “Neuron Firing Rates in Humans”, AI Impacts, April 14, 2015, https://aiimpacts.org/rate-of-neuron-firing; Peter Steinmetz et al., “Firing Behavior and Network Activity of Single Neurons in Human Epileptic Hypothalamic Hamartoma”, Frontiers in Neurology 2, no. 210 (December 27, 2013), https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2013.00210.

145. “Neuron Firing Rates in Humans”, AI Impacts.

146. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Viking, 2005), 125; Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA; Harvard University Press, 1988), 59, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=56mb7XuSx3QC.

147. Preeti Raghavan, “Stroke Recovery Timeline”, Johns Hopkins Medicine, accessed April 27, 2023, https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/stroke/stroke-recovery-timeline; Apoorva Mandavilli, “The Brain That Wasn’t Supposed to Heal”, Atlantic, April 7, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/04/brain-injuries/477300.

148. По состоянию на начало 2023 года затраты на аренду системы Google Cloud’s TPU v5e в размере 1000 долларов за час обеспечивают быстродействие в 328 квадриллионов операций в секунду, то есть порядка 10¹⁷. Доступность аренды облачных мощностей значительно снизила расходы для многих пользователей, но напрямую сравнивать эффективность этих вычислительных мощностей с оборудованием прошлых поколений стало затруднительно, поскольку ранее этот параметр рассчитывался исходя из цены покупки процессоров. Срок аренды – это не то же самое, что время использования купленного компьютера, но приблизительно можно считать покупку эквивалентной 4000 часам работы в аренде (если пренебречь рядом деталей типа зарплат персонала, стоимости электроэнергии, амортизации). С этой точки зрения TPU v5e показывает результат больше 130 триллионов операций в секунду (то есть 10¹⁴) за 1000 долларов. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

149. Экстраполируя долгосрочную тенденцию, которая характеризуется удвоением за 1,34 года с 1983-го. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

150. Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap, technical report 2008-3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University (2008), 80–81, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf.

151. Sandberg and Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation.

152. Mitch Kapor and Ray Kurzweil, “A Wager on the Turing Test: The Rules”, KurzweilAI.net, April 9, 2002, http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-wager-on-the-turing-test-the-rules.

153. Edward Moore Geist, “It’s Already Too Late to Stop the AI Arms Race – We Must Manage It Instead”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 72, no. 5 (August 15, 2016): 318–21, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2016.1216672.

154. Хороший пример приводит научный журналист Джон Хорган: John Horgan, “Smarter than Us? Who’s Us?”, New York Times, May 4, 1997, https://www.nytimes.com/1997/05/04/opinion/smarter-than-us-who-s-us.html.

155. См., например, Hubert L. Dreyfus, “Why We Do Not Have to Worry About Speaking the Language of the Computer”, Information Technology & People 11, no. 4 (December 1998): 281–89, https://personal.lse.ac.uk/whitley/allpubs/heideggerspecialissue/heidegger01.pdf; Selmer Bringsjord, “Chess Is Too Easy”, MIT Technology Review, March 1, 1998, https://www.technologyreview.com/1998/03/01/237087/chess-is-too-easy.

156. Одним из аспирантов, разработавших Proverb – первую систему ИИ, которая научилась разгадывать кроссворды лучше большинства людей, – был Ноам Шазир. Он продолжил работу в компании Google и был ведущим автором статьи «Все, что нужно – это внимание», которая положила начало архитектуре трансформеров, ознаменовав революцию в сфере ИИ. См. Duke University, “Duke Researchers Pit Computer Against Human Crossword Puzzle Players”, ScienceDaily, April 20, 1999, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/04/990420064821.htm; Vaswani et al., “Attention Is All You Need”.

157. Нарезка из игр с участием Watson и его анализ в сравнении с соперниками: O’Reilly, “Jeopardy! IBM Challenge Day 3 (HD) Ken Jennings vs. WATSON vs. Brad Rutter (02-16-11)”, Vimeo video, June 19, 2017, https://vimeo.com/222234104; Sam Gustin, “Behind IBM’s Plan to Beat Humans at Their Own Game”, Wired, February 14, 2011, https://www.wired.com/2011/02/watson-jeopardy; John Markoff, “Computer Wins on ‘Jeopardy!’: Trivial, It’s Not”, New York Times, February 16, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/science/17jeopardy-watson.html.

158. “Show #6088—Wednesday, February 16, 2011”, J! Archive, последняя проверка доступности 30 апреля 2023 года, https://j-archive.com/showgame.php?game_id=3577.

159. “Show #6088—Wednesday, February 16, 2011”, J! Archive.

160. Jeffrey Grubb, “Google Duplex: A.I. Assistant Calls Local Businesses to Make Appointments”, Jeff Grubb’s Game Mess, YouTube video, May 8, 2018, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=D5VN56jQMWM; Georgina Torbet, “Google Duplex Begins International Rollout with a New Zealand pilot”, Engadget, October 22, 2019, https://www.engadget.com/2019-10-22-google-duplex-pilot-new-zealand.html; IBM, “Man vs. Machine: Highlights from the Debate Between IBM’s Project Debater and Harish Natarajan”, Business-WorldTV, YouTube video, February 13, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJXc FtY9cW Y.

161. Больше информации о проблеме галлюцинаций больших языковых моделей: Tom Simonite, “AI Has a Hallucination Problem That’s Proving Tough to Fix”, Wired, March 9, 2018, https://www.wired.com/story/ai-has-a-hallucination-problem-thats-proving-tough-to-fix; Craig S. Smith, “Hallucinations Could Blunt ChatGPT’s Success”, IEEE Spectrum, March 13, 2023, https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-hallucination; Cade Metz, “What Makes A.I. Chatbots Go Wrong?”, New York Times, March 29, 2023 (updated April 4, 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-chatbots-hallucinations.html; Ziwei Ji et al., “Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generation”, ACM Computing Surveys 55, no. 12, article 248 (March 3, 2023): 1–38, https://doi.org/10.1145/3571730.

162. Jonathan Cohen, “Right on Track: NVIDIA Open-Source Software Helps Developers Add Guardrails to AI Chatbots”, NVIDIA, April 25, 2023, https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2023 /04/25/ai-chatbot-guardrails-nemo.

163. Turing, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence”.

164. Turing, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence”.

165. Например, в 2014 году чат-бот, представлявшийся Евгением Густманом, незаслуженно попал в заголовки как прошедший тест Тьюринга. Он имитировал 13-летнего украинского мальчика, плохо говорившего по-английски. See Doug Aamoth “Interview with Eugene Goostman, the Fake Kid Who Passed the Turing Test”, Time, June 9, 2014, https://time.com/2847900/eugene-goostman-turing-test.

166. Больше информации о том, как работал сервис Talk to Books, от нашей команды в Google; и моя беседа с Крисом Андерсоном для подкаста TED: Google AI, “Talk to Books”, Experiments with Google, September 2018, https://experiments.withgoogle.com/talk-to-books; Chris Anderson, “Ray Kurzweil on What the Future Holds Next”, in The Ted Interview podcast, December 2018, https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_ray_kurzweil_on_what_the _future_holds_next/transcript.

167. О том, как работает технология ФМРТ: Mark Stokes, “What Does fMRI Measure?”, Scitable, May 16, 2015, https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/brain-metrics/what_does_fmri_measure.

168. Sriranga Kashyap et al., “Resolving Laminar Activation in Human V1 Using Ultra-High Spatial Resolution fMRI at 7T”, Scientific Reports 8, article 17–63 (November 20, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35333-3; Jozien Goense, Yvette Bohraus, and Nikos K. Logothetis, “fMRI at High Spatial Resolution: Implications for BOLD-Models”, Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience 10, no. 66 (June 28, 2016), https://doi.org/10.3389/fncom.2016.00066.

169. Существуют методы, позволяющие добиться шага по времени в 100 миллисекунд, но пространственное разрешение при этом будет весьма низким, 5–6 мм. См. Benjamin Zahneisen et al., “Three-Dimensional MR-Encephalography: Fast Volumetric Brain Imaging Using Rosette Trajectories”, Magnetic Resonance in Medicine 65, no. 5 (May 2011): 1260–68, https://doi.org/10.1002/mrm.22711; David A. Feinberg et al., “Multiplexed Echo Planar Imaging for Sub-Second Whole Brain FMRI and Fast Diffusion Imaging.”, PloS ONE 5, no. 12: e15710 (December 20, 2010), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0015710.

170. Alexandra List et al., “Pattern Classification of EEG Signals Reveals Perceptual and Attentional States”, PLoS ONE 12, no. 4: e0176349 (April 26, 2017), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176349; Boris Burle et al., “Spatial and Temporal Resolutions of EEG: Is It Really Black and White? A Scalp Current Density View”, International Journal of Psychophysiology 97, no. 3 (September 2015): 210–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpsycho.2015.05.004.

171. Yahya Aghakhani et al., “Co-Localization Between the BOLD Response and Epileptiform Discharges Recorded by Simultaneous Intracranial EEG-fMRI at 3 T”, NeuroImage: Clinical 7 (2015): 755–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nicl.2015.03.002; Brigitte Stemmer and Frank A. Rodden, “Functional Brain Imaging of Language Processes”, in International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, ed. James D. Wright, 2nd ed. (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 2015), 476–513, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.54009-4; Burle et al., “Spatial and Temporal Resolutions of EEG); Claudio Babiloni et al., “Fundamentals of Electroencefalography, Magnetoencefalography, and Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging”, in Brain Machine Interfaces for Space Applications: Enhancing Astronaut Capabilities, ed. Luca Rossini, Dario Izzo, and Leopold Summerer (New York: Academic Press, 2009), 73, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=l5Q1bul_ZbEC.

172. Видео системы BrainGate в действии: BrainGate Collaboration, “Thought Control of Robotic Arms Using the BrainGate System”, NIHNINDS, YouTube video, May 16, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRt8QCx3BCo.

175. Длинное, но очень доступное для восприятия объяснение концепции интерфейсов мозг-компьютер компании Neuralink, а также статья, описывающая технологию в деталях: Tim Urban, “Neuralink and the Brain’s Magical Future (G-Rated Version)”, Wait But Why, April 20, 2017, https://waitbutwhy.com/2017/04/neuralink-cleanversion.html; Elon Musk and Neuralink, “An Integrated Brain-Machine Interface Platform with Thousands of Channels”, Neuralink working paper, July 17, 2019, bioRxiv 703801, https://doi.org /10.1101/703801.

176. John Markoff, “Elon Musk’s Neuralink Wants ‘Sewing Machine-Like’ Robots to Wire Brains to the Internet”, New York Times, July 16, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07 /16/technology/neuralink-elon-musk.html.

177. Видео играющей обезьяны: “Monkey MindPong”, Neuralink, YouTube video, April 8, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsCul1sp4hQ.

178. Kelsey Ables, “Musk’s Neuralink Implants Brain Chip in its First Human Subject”, Washington Post, January 30, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/30/neu ralink-musk-first-human-brain-chip; Neuralink, “Neuralink Clinical Trial”, Neuralink, accessed February 6, 2024, https://neuralink.com/pdfs/PRIME-Study-Brochure.pdf; Rachael Levy and Hyunjoo Jin, “Musk Expects Brain Chip Start-up Neuralink to Implant ‘First Case’ This Year”, Reuters, June 20, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-expects-brain-chip-start-up-neuralink-implant-first-case-this-year-2023-06-16; Rachael Levy and Marisa Taylor, “U.S. Regulators Rejected Elon Musk’s Bid to Test Brain Chips in Humans, Citing Safety Risks”, Reuters, March 2, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/inves tigates/special-report/neuralink-musk-fda; Mary Beth Griggs, “Elon Musk Claims Neuralink Is About ‘Six Months’ Away from First Human Trial”, The Verge, November 30, 2022, https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/30/23487307/neuralink-elon-musk-show-and-tell-2022.

179. Andrew Tarantola, “DARPA Is Helping Six Groups Create Neural Interfaces for Our Brains”, Engadget, July 10, 2017, https://www.engadget.com/2017-07-10-darpa-taps-five-organizations-to-develop-neural-interface-tech.html.

180. “Brown to Receive up to $19M to Engineer Next-Generation Brain-Computer Interface”, Brown University, July 10, 2017, https://www.brown.edu/news/2017-07-10/neurograins; Jihun Lee et al., “Wireless Ensembles of Sub-mm Microimplants Communicating as a Network near 1 GHz in a Neural Application”, bioRxiv 2020.09.11.293829 (preprint), September 13, 2020, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.293829v1.

181. Более подробно об иерархической структуре новой коры: Stewart Shipp, “Structure and Function of the Cerebral Cortex”, Current Biology 17, no. 12 (June 19, 2007): R443–R449, https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(07)01148-7.pdf; Claus C. Hilgetag and Alexandros Goulas, “‘Hierarchy’ in the Organization of Brain Networks”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, February 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0319; Jeff Hawkins et al., “A Theory of How Columns in the Neocortex Enable Learning the Structure of the World”, Frontiers in Neural Circuits, October 25, 2017, https:// doi.org/10.3389/fncir.2017.00081.

182. Говоря «напрямую», я имею в виду, что биологические и цифровые нейроны будут поддерживать функциональную связь друг с другом в смысле логических и вычислительных цепочек. Физически сигналы будут пересылаться в облако и обратно посредством сравнительно небольшого количества передатчиков, имплантированных или в виде внешних устройств.

183. О разнице между способностями к освоению языка у животных и людей см. Ben-Yami, “Can Animals Acquire Language?”

Глава 3. Что такое «Я»?

1. Samuel Butler, Erewhon: Or, Over the Range, 2nd ed. (London: Trübner & Co, 1872), 190, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/1906/1906-h/1906-h.htm.

2. Butler, Erewhon, vi.

3. Подробнее о том, что именно наука и философия говорят нам о наличии сознания у животных: Colin Allen and Michael Trestman, “Animal Consciousness”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2017), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness-animal; “Just How Smart Are Dolphins?”, BBC Earth, YouTube video, October 19, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M92OA-_5-Y; John Green, “Non-Human Animals”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, January 16, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3-BX-jN_Ac; Joe Rogan and Roger Penrose, “Are Animals Conscious Like We Are?”, JRE Clips, YouTube video, December 18, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlzY _KvGSZ4.

4. Подробнее о сознании грызунов: Alla Katnelson, “What the Rat Brain Tells Us About Yours”, Nautilus, April 13, 2017, http://nautil.us/issue/47/consciousness/what-the-rat-brain-tells-us-about-yours; Jessica Hamzelou, “Zoned-Out Rats May Give Clue to Consciousness”, New Scientist, October 5, 2011, https://www.newscientist.com/article /mg21128333-700; Cyriel Pennartz et al., “Indicators and Criteria of Consciousness in Animals and Intelligent Machines: An Inside-Out Approach”, Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience 13, no. 25 (July 16, 2019), https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnsys.2019.00025/full; “Scientists Manipulate Consciousness in Rats”, National Institutes of Health, December 18, 2015, https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/scientists-manipulate-consciousness-rats.

5. Douglas Fox, “Consciousness in a Cockroach”, Discover, January 10, 2007, http://discover magazine.com/2007/jan/cockroach-consciousness-neuron-similarity; Suzana Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers: A Linearly Scaled-Up Primate Brain”, Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 3, no. 31 (August 5, 2009), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti cles/PMC2776484.

6. Colin Barras, “Smart Amoebas Reveal Origins of Primitive Intelligence”, New Scientist, October 29, 2008, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn15068; Yuriv V. Pershin et al., “Memristive Model of Amoeba’s Learning”, Physical Review E: Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics 80, 021926 (July 27, 2009), https://arxiv.org/pdf /0810.4179.pdf.

7. Подробнее о сравнительно развитом сознании у животных: Philip Low et al., “The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness”, Francis Crick Memorial Conference 2012: Consciousness in Animals, University of Cambridge, July 7, 2012, http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf; Virginia Morell, “Monkeys Master a Key Sign of Self-Awareness: Recognizing Their Reflections”, Science, February 13, 2017, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/monkeys-master-key-sign-self-awareness-recognizing-their-reflections; Melanie Boly et al., “Consciousness in Humans and Nonhuman Animals: Recent Advances and Future Directions”, Frontiers in Psychology 4, no. 625 (October 31, 2013), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3814086; Marc Bekoff, “Animals Are Conscious and Should be Treated as Such”, New Scientist, September 19, 2012, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528836-200; Elizabeth Pennisi, “Are Our Primate Cousins ‘Conscious’?”, Science 284, no. 5423 (June 25, 1999): 2073–76.

8. Low et al., “Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness”.

9. Danielle S. Bassett and Michael S. Gazzaniga, “Understanding Complexity in the Human Brain”, Trends in Cognitive Science 15, no. 5 (May 2011): 200–209, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3170818; Xerxes D. Arsiwalla and Paul Verschure, “Measuring the Complexity of Consciousness”, Frontiers in Neuroscience 12, no. 424 (June 27, 2018), https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2018.00424.

10. Интересное и не слишком сложное видео на тему квалиа, а также более глубокое научное рассмотрение феномена: Michael Stevens, “Is Your Red the Same as My Red?”, Vsauce, YouTube video, February 17, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evQsOFQju08; Michael Tye, “Qualia”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Summer 2018), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qualia.

11. Подробнее о концепции зомби Дэвида Чалмерса и мысленном эксперименте «китайская комната», с помощью которого Джон Сёрл демонстрирует, что наличие субъективного опыта нельзя установить по поведению: John Green, “Where Does Your Mind Reside?”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, August 1, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SJROTXnmus; John Green, “Artificial Intelligence & Personhood”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, August 8, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39EdqUbj92U; Marcus Du Sautoy, “The Chinese Room Experiment: The Hunt for AI”, BBC Studios, YouTube video, September 17, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0MD4sRHj1M; Robert Kirk, “Zombies”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Spring 2019), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/zombies; David Cole, “The Chinese Room Argument”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Spring 2019), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chi nese-room.

12. Более подробно о взглядах Чалмерса на легкую и трудную проблемы сознания: David Chalmers, “Hard Problem of Consciousness”, Serious Science, YouTube video, July 5, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5DfnIjZPGw; David Chalmers, “The Meta Problem of Consciousness”, Talks at Google, YouTube video, April 2, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsYUWtLQBS0; David Chalmers, “Facing Up to the Problem of Consciousness”, Journal of Consciousness Studies 2, no. 3 (1995): 200–219, http://consc.net /papers/facing.html.

13. Подробно о взглядах Чалмерса на проблему зомби, панпротопсихизм и философских зомби: David J. Chalmers, “Panpsychism and Panprotopsychism”, in Panpsychism, ed. Godehard Bruntrup and Ludwig Jaskolla (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), http:// consc.net/papers/panpsychism.pdf; David Chalmers, “Panpsychism and Explaining Consciousness,” Oppositum, TED Talk, YouTube video, January 18, 2016, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=SiYfN7-gaLk; David Chalmers, “How Does Panpsychism Fit in Between Dualism and Materialism?”, Loyola Productions Munich, YouTube video, November 8, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSmfhc_8gew.

14. Лауреат Нобелевской премии по физике сэр Роджер Пенроуз вместе с физиологом Стюартом Хамероффом разработали интересную теорию под названием «организованная объективная редукция» (Orch OR), которая объясняет возникновение сознания квантовыми процессами в микротрубочках (белковых полимерах) внутри нейронов. Теория пока не нашла признания в научном сообществе. Физики, в частности Макс Тегмарк, отмечают, что декогеренция не позволит квантовым явлениям играть значимую роль в макроскопических процессах в мозге и влиять на поведение. Хотя теория весьма захватывающая, убедительного подтверждения, что возникновение сознания необходимо объяснять с помощью квантовой физики, пока не получено. См. Steve Paulson, “Roger Penrose on Why Consciousness Does Not Compute”, Nautilus, April 27, 2017, https://nautil.us/roger-penrose-on-why-consci ousness-does-not-compute-236591; Max Tegmark, “The Importance of Quantum Decoherence in Brain Processes”, Physical Review E: Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics 61 (May 2000): 4194–206, https://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph /9907009.pdf; Stuart Hameroff, “How Quantum Brain Biology Can Rescue Conscious Free Will”, Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience 6, article 93 (October 12, 2012), https://doi.org/10.3389/fnint.2012.00093.

15. Более подробно о конкурирующих учениях в философии и политике по вопросу свободы воли: John Green, “Determinism vs. Free Will”, Crash Course, YouTube video, August 15, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCGtkDzELAI; M. S., “Free Will and Politics,” Economist, January 12, 2012, https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america /2012/01/12/free-will-and-politics; Timothy O’Connor and Christopher Franklin, “Free Will,” in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Summer 2019), https:// plato.stanford.edu/entries/freewill; Randolph Clarke and Justin Capes, “Incompatibilist (Nondeterministic) Theories of Free Will,” in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Spring 2017), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/incompatibilism-theories; Michael McKenna and Justin D. Coates, “Compatibilism,” in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2018), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/compatibilism.

16. Ряд интересных подходов к вопросу свободы воли и предопределенности: Shaun Nichols, “Free Will Versus the Programmed Brain”, Scientific American, August 19, 2008, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/free-will-vs-programmed-brain; Bill Nye, “Hey Bill Nye, Do Humans Have Free Will?”, Big Think, YouTube video, January 19, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITdMa2bCaVc; Michio Kaku, “Why Physics Ends the Free Will Debate”, Big Think, YouTube video, May 20, 2011, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=Jint5kjoy6I; Stephen Cave, “There’s No Such Thing as Free Will”, Atlantic, June 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/theres-no-such-thing-as-free-will/480750.

17. Simon Blackburn, Think: A Compelling Introduction to Philosophy (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1999), 85, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=yEEITQSyxAMC.

18. Более подробное объяснение и демонстрация работы клеточных автоматов: Daniel Shiffman, “Cellular Automata”, chap. 7 in The Nature of Code (Magic Book Project, 2012), https:// natureofcode.com/book/chapter-7-cellular-automata; Devin Acker, “Elementary Cellular Automaton”, Github.io, accessed March 10, 2023, http://devinacker.github.io/celldemo; Francesco Berto and Jacopo Tagliabue, “Cellular Automata”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Fall 2017), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2017 /entries/cellular-automata.

19. “John Conway’s Game of Life”, Bitstorm.org, accessed March 10, 2023, https://bitstorm.org/gameoflife; “Life in Life”, Phillip Bradbury, YouTube video, May 13, 2012, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP5-iIeKXE8; Amanda Ghassaei, “OTCA Metapixel – Conway’s Game of Life”, Trybotics, последняя проверка доступности 10 марта 2023 года, https://trybotics.com/project/OTCA-Metapixel-Conways-Game-of-Life-98534.

20. Stephen Wolfram, A New Kind of Science (Champaign, IL: Wolfram Media, 2002), 23–41, 58–70.

21. Wolfram, New Kind of Science, 56, wolframscience.com/nks.

22. Wolfram, New Kind of Science, 56, wolframscience.com/nks.

23. Wolfram, New Kind of Science, 23–27, 31, wolframscience.com/nks.

24. Wolfram, New Kind of Science, 23–27, 31, wolframscience.com/nks.

25. Основополагающая статья Вольфрама о клеточных автоматах и сложности поведения: Stephen Wolfram, “Cellular Automata as Models of Complexity”, Nature 311, no. 5985 (October 1984), https://www.stephenwolfram.com/publications/academic/cellular-automata-models-complexity.pdf.

26. Краткое объяснение эффекта эмерджентности: Emily Driscoll and Lottie Kingslake, “What Is Emergence?”, Quanta Magazine, YouTube video, December 20, 2018, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=TlysTnxF_6c.

27. Wolfram, New Kind of Science, 31.

28. Подробная информация о проекте Wolfram Physics, в том числе визуализация и интерактивные инструменты: www.wolframphysics.org. Подробная техническая документация: Stephen Wolfram, “A Class of Models with the Potential to Represent Fundamental Physics”, Complex Systems 29, no. 2 (April 2020): 107–536, https://doi.org/10.25088 /ComplexSystems.29.2.107.

29. Форма детерминизма, не допускающая возможности предсказания, о которой пишет Вольфрам, совместима с явлением случайности квантовых событий: они следуют строго определенным правилам, но таким образом, который не допускает раскрытия информации об их поведении в будущем. Стоит отметить, что, хотя квантовая физика допускает появление функций, генерирующих действительно случайные числа, по крайней мере кажущиеся таковыми абсолютно всем обитателям нашей Вселенной, свойством эмерджентности (в отличие от клеточных автоматов класса 4) такие системы обладать не будут. Иными словами, если известно, что функция возвращает случайную последовательность из нулей и единиц, никаких более сложных закономерностей в ней не появится. Могут возникать длинные строки наподобие «11111111», но каждая следующая цифра никак не зависит от предыдущих. Так что можно смело заявлять, что миллиардная цифра окажется единицей с вероятностью 50 %, ничего не зная о ее предшественниках. Все это полностью сочетается с господствующей в современной науке парадигмой, что законы, описывающие систему, объясняют и ее поведение. См. Xiongfeng Ma et al., “Quantum Random Number Generation”, npj Quantum Information 2, article 16021 (June 28, 2016), https:// www.nature.com/articles/npjqi201621.

30. Более подробно о проекте Blue Brain, в ходе которого были открыты 11-мерные структуры в мозге и поставлена задача картировать и смоделировать мозг животного (а затем и человека): “Blue Brain Team Discovers a Multi-Dimensional Universe in Brain Networks”, Frontiers Science News, June 12, 2017, https://blog.frontiersin.org/2017/06/12 /blue-brain-team-discovers-a-multi-dimensional-universe-in-brain-networks; Michael W. Reimann et al., “Cliques of Neurons Bound into Cavities Provide a Missing Link Between Structure and Function”, Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience 11, no. 48 (June 12, 2017), https://doi.org/10.3389/fncom.2017.00048.

31. See John Green, “Compatibilism”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, August 22, 2016, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=KETTtiprINU; McKenna and Coates, “Compatibilism”.

32. Это разновидность компатибилизма – философского учения, допускающего существование свободы воли даже во Вселенной, подчиняющейся некой форме детерминистских законов. См. Green, “Compatibilism”; McKenna and Coates, “Compatibilism”, Stanford Encyclopedia.

33. Подробнее о результатах, полученных нейронаукой в последние десятилетия в ходе исследования взаимодействия полушарий нашего мозга: Ned Herrmann, “Is It True That Creativity Resides in the Right Hemisphere of the Brain?”, Scientific American, January 26, 1998, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-it-true-that-creativit; Dina A. Lienhard, “Roger Sperry’s Split Brain Experiments (1959–1968)”, Embryo Project Encyclopedia, December 27, 2017, https://embryo.asu.edu/pages/roger-sperrys-split-brain-experiments-1959-1968; David Wolman, “The Split Brain: A Tale of Two Halves”, Nature 483, no. 7389 (March 14, 2012): 260–63, https://www.nature.com/news/the-split-brain-a-tale-of-two-halves-1.10213.

34. Stella de Bode and Susan Curtiss, “Language After Hemispherectomy”, Brain and Cognition 43, nos. 1–3 (June – August 2000): 135–205.

35. Dana Boatman et al., “Language Recovery After Left Hemispherectomy in Children with Late-Onset Seizures”, Annals of Neurology 46, no. 4 (April 1999): 579–86, https://www.ac ademia.edu/21485724/Language_recovery_after_left_hemispherectomy_in_children _with_late-onset_seizures.

36. Jing Zhou et al., “Axon Position Within the Corpus Callosum Determines Contralateral Cortical Projection”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, no. 29 (July 16, 2013): E2714–E2723, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1310233110.

37. Benedict Carey, “Decoding the Brain’s Cacophony”, New York Times, October 31, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/science/telling-the-story-of-the-brains-cacophony-of-competing-voices.html; Michael Gazzaniga, “The Split Brain in Man”, Scientific American 217, no. 2 (August 1967): 24–29, https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fscientificamerican0867-24; Alan Alda and David Huntley, “Pieces of Mind”, Scientific American Frontiers (PBS, 1997), ctshad, YouTube video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfGwsAdS9Dc.

38. Michael S. Gazzaniga, “Principles of Human Brain Organization Derived from Split-Brain Studies”, Neuron 14, no. 2 (February 1995): 217–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/0896-6273(95) 90280-5; Roger W. Sperry, “Consciousness, Personal Identity, and the Divided Brain”, in The Dual Brain: Hemispheric Specialization in Humans, ed. D. F. Benson and Eran Zaidel (New York: Guilford Publications, 1985), 11–25; William Hirstein, “Self-Deception and Confabulation”, Philosophy of Science 67, no. 3 (September 2000): S418–S429, www.jstor.org/stable/188684.

39. Gazzaniga, “Principles of Human Brain Organization”; Sperry, “Consciousness, Personal Identity, and the Divided Brain”; Hirstein, “Self-Deception and Confabulation”.

40. Richard Apps et al., “Cerebellar Modules and Their Role as Operational Cerebellar Processing Units”, Cerebellum 17, no. 5 (June 6, 2018): 654–682, https://doi.org/10.1007 /s12311-018-0952-3; Jan Voogd, “What We Do Not Know About Cerebellar Systems Neuroscience”, Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience 8, no. 227 (December 18, 2014), https://doi.org/10.3389/fnsys.2014.00227.

41. Подробнее о теории «общества разума» и о том, как она сочетается с современными представлениями нейронауки: Marvin Minsky, “The Society of Mind Theory Developed from Teaching”, Web of Stories – Life Stories of Remarkable People, YouTube video, October 5, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU2SZEW4EWg; Marvin Minsky, “Biological Plausibility of the Society of Mind Theory”, Web of Stories – Life Stories of Remarkable People, YouTube video, October 31, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e02WbBd0F70; Michael N. Shadlen and Adina L. Roskies, “The Neurobiology of Decision-Making and Responsibility: Reconciling Mechanism and Mindedness”, Frontiers in Neuroscience 6, no. 56 (April 23, 2012), https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00056; Johannes Friedrich and Máté Lengyel, “Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons”, Journal of Neuroscience 36, no. 5 (February 3, 2016): 1529–46, https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.2854-15.2016; Marvin Minsky, The Society of Mind (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1986).

42. Sarvi Sharifi et al., “Neuroimaging Essentials in Essential Tremor: A Systematic Review”, NeuroImage Clinical 5 (May 2014): 217–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nicl.2014.05.003; Rick C. Helmich, David E. Vaillancourt, and David J. Brooks, “The Future of Brain Imaging in Parkinson’s Disease”, Journal of Parkinson’s Disease 8, no. s1 (2018): S47–S51, https://doi.org/10.3233/JPD-181482.

43. Подробнее о философии идентичности и изменения: Andre Gallois, “Identity Over Time”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2016), https:// plato.stanford.edu/entries/identity-time.

44. Duncan Graham-Rowe, “World’s First Brain Prosthesis Revealed”, New Scientist, March 2003, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3488.

45. Robert E. Hampson et al., “Developing a Hippocampal Neural Prosthetic to Facilitate Human Memory Encoding and Recall”, Journal of Neural Engineering 15, no. 3 (March 28, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-2552/aaaed7.

46. Описание биогенеза митохондрий, менее детальное и более подробное: Jon Lieff, “Dynamic Relationship of Mitochondria and Neurons”, jonlieffmd.com, February 2, 2014, https://jonlieffmd.com/tag/dynamic-of-fission-and-fusion; Thomas Misgeld and Thomas L. Schwarz, “Mitostasis in Neurons: Maintaining Mitochondria in an Extended Cellular Architecture”, Neuron 96, no. 3 (November 1, 2017): 651–66, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5687842.

47. Samuel F. Bakhoum and Duane A. Compton, “Kinetochores and Disease: Keeping Microtubule Dynamics in Check!”, Current Opinion in Cell Biology 24, no. 1 (February 2012): 64–70, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294090/#R13; Vincent Meininger and Stephane Binet, “Characteristics of Microtubules at the Different Stages of Neuronal Differentiation and Maturation”, International Review of Cytology 114 (1989): 21–79, https:// doi.org/10.1016/S0074-7696(08)60858-X.

48. Laurie D. Cohen et al., “Metabolic Turnover of Synaptic Proteins: Kinetics, Interdependencies and Implications for Synaptic Maintenance”, PLoS One 8, no. 5: e63191 (May 2, 2013), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0063191.

49. K. H. Huh and R. J. Wenthold, “Turnover Analysis of Glutamate Receptors Identifies a Rapidly Degraded Pool of the N-methyl-D-aspartate Receptor Subunit, NR1, in Cultured Cerebellar Granule Cells”, Journal of Biological Chemistry 274, no. 1 (January 1, 1999): 151–57, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9867823.

50. Erin N. Star, David J. Kwiatkowski, and Venkatesh N. Murthy, “Rapid Turnover of Actin in Dendritic Spines and its Regulation by Activity”, Nature Neuroscience 5, no. 3 (March 2002): 239–46, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11850630.

51. “Female Reproductive System”, Cleveland Clinic, последняя проверка доступности 10 марта 2023 года, https:// my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/9118-female-reproductive-system; Robert D. Martin, “The Macho Sperm Myth”, Aeon, August 23, 2018, https://aeon.co/essays/the-idea-that-sperm-race-to-the-egg-is-just-another-macho-myth.

52. Timothy G. Jenkins et al., “Sperm Epigenetics and Aging”, Translational Andrology and Urology 7, suppl. 3 (July 2018): S328–S335, https://doi.org/10.21037/tau.2018.06.10; Ida Donkin and Romain Barrés, “Sperm Epigenetics and the Influence of Environmental Factors”, Molecular Metabolism 14 (August 2018): 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.molmet.2018.02.006.

53. Holly C. Betts et al., “Integrated Genomic and Fossil Evidence Illuminates Life’s Early Evolution and Eukaryote Origin”, Nature Ecology & Evolution 2 (August 20, 2018): 1556–62, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0644-x; Elizabeth Pennisi, “Life May Have Originated on Earth 4 Billion Years Ago, Study of Controversial Fossils Suggests”, Science, December 18, 2017, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/life-may-have-originated-earth-4-billion-years-ago-study-controversial-fossils-suggests; Michael Marshall, “Time-line: The Evolution of Life”, New Scientist, July 14, 2009, https://institutions.newscientist.com/article/dn17453-timeline-the-evolution-of-life.

54. Не будем принимать во внимание шансы на то, что ваши родители в принципе встретятся и образуют пару. Вероятность слияния двух конкретных половых клеток (чтобы родились именно вы) составляет примерно 1 из 2 квинтиллионов. То же самое верно для ваших родителей, бабушек и дедушек и т. д. Возьмем любого вашего предка, жившего несколько столетий назад. Вероятно, вы не унаследовали никаких генов, принадлежавших непосредственно ему, но если бы его не было, другие ваши предки могли бы вовсе не родиться, или умереть от генетических болезней, или образовать пару с другими людьми. Каждая ветвь вашей семьи была в каком-то смысле на волоске. Так что согласно очень грубому подсчету с точки зрения генетических и эпигенетических механизмов наследования вероятность вашего появления на свет составляет 1 из 2 000 000 000 000 000 000 в степени, равной количеству ваших предков, причем не только «уникальных». Ваши 100-е прабабушка и прадедушка жили где-то между поколениями Будды и Иисуса. Простым перемножением получается, что у вас было примерно 1,3 нониллиона 100-х прабабушек и прадедушек. Но людей на планете тогда было не больше 400 миллионов. Разгадка этого парадокса – в кровосмешении. Если рассмотреть ваше фамильное древо, то окажется, что ваши предки были дальними родственниками друг друга, так что один и тот же человек может быть вашим предком во множестве разных ролей. Если бы мы считали просто количество предков, мы бы учитывали всех по одному разу. Но чтобы оценить, насколько маловероятным было ваше появление на свет, нам нужно рассмотреть все связи, значит, нам приходится считать одного и того же человека дважды, если он был вашим восьмым и девятым прадедом одновременно. Потому что все равно должно было случиться так, что этот человек смог сыграть обе роли. Поскольку вид Homo sapiens насчитывает около 10 000 поколений, количество событий, которыми обусловлен факт именно вашего рождения, составляет 2^210 000, или 4 x 10³⁰¹⁰. Если в эту степень возвести 2 квинтиллиона, получится число, которое должно стоять в знаменателе при вычислении вероятности вашего рождения (10¹⁰³⁰¹¹). Это число намного больше гуголплекса. В нем больше нулей, чем атомов в известной части Вселенной. И эти расчеты касаются только человека как биологического вида. По оценкам Ричарда Докинза, биолога из Оксфорда, со времен первичноротых, одних из первых наших предков, у которых было половое размножение, сменилось около 300 миллионов поколений. Конечно, точных данных за всю историю жизни от момента ее зарождения 4 миллиарда лет назад не существует, но можно более-менее уверенно говорить об одном триллионе поколений. Достаточно сказать, что вероятность, вычисленная с учетом всех этих поколений, оказывается настолько ничтожной, что мы не можем себе ее толком представить. Мы стоим на вершине горы из случайностей и везения, причем она уходит настолько далеко вниз в пространстве и времени, что мы не можем разглядеть ее подножие. Более подробно об эволюции человека, а также обоснование использованных в этом рассуждении оценок см. в: Max Ingman et al., “Mitochondrial Genome Variation and the Origin of Modern Humans”, Nature 408 (December 7, 2000): 713, https://www.eva.mpg.de/fileadmin/content_files/staff/paabo /pdf/Ingman_MitNat_2000.pdf; Donn Devine, “How Long Is a Generation?”, Ancestry. ca, March 10, 2023, https://web.archive.org/web/20200111102741/https://www.ancestry.ca/learn/learningcenters/default.aspx?section=lib_Generation; Adam Rutherford, “Ant and Dec’s DNA Test Merely Tells Us That We’re All Inbred”, Guardian, November 12, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/12/ant-and-dec-dna-test-all-inbred-historical-connections; Alva Noë, “DNA, Genealogy and the Search for Who We Are”, NPR, January 29, 2016, https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2016/01/29/464805509 /dna-genealogy-and-the-search-for-who-we-are; Alison Jolly, Lucy’s Legacy: Sex and Intelligence in Human Evolution (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1999), 55, https:// books.google.co.uk/books?id=7mSMa2Zl_YkC; Simon Conway Morris, “The Fossils of the Burgess Shale and the Cambrian ‘Explosion’: Their Implications for Evolution”, in Killers in the Brain: Essays in Science and Technology from the Royal Institution, ed. Peter Day (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1999), 22, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id= v3Eo4UqbbYsC; Richard Dawkins and Yan Wong, The Ancestor’s Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Evolution (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2004), 379; John Carl Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are in the Universe?”, Universe Today, July 30, 2009, https://www.universetoday.com/36302/atoms-in-the-universe; Tim Urban, “Meet Your Ancestors (All of Them)”, Wait But Why, December 18, 2013, https://waitbutwhy.com/2013/12/your-ancestor-is-jellyfish.html.

55. Обсуждение «настроек» Вселенной с точки зрения науки: Leonard Susskind, “Is the Universe Fine-Tuned for Life and Mind?”, Closer to Truth, YouTube video, January 8, 2013, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cT4zZIHR3s; Martin J. Rees, “Why Cosmic Fine-Tuning Demands Explanation”, Closer to Truth, YouTube video, January 23, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0zdXj6fSGY; Simon Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2018), https://plato.stanford.edu/en tries/fine-tuning/#FineTuneCondEarlUniv.

56. Согласно Стандартной модели, существуют шесть видов кварков, шесть антикварков, шесть лептонов, шесть антилептонов, восемь глюонов, фотоны, W+-бозоны, W-бозоны, Z-бозоны и бозон Хиггса. Подробнее о так называемом зоопарке частиц Стандартной модели см. Julian Huguet, “Subatomic Particles Explained in Under 4 Minutes”, Seeker, YouTube video, December 18, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eD7hXLRqWWM; Peter Kalmus, “The Physics of Elementary Particles: Part I”, Plus Magazine, April 21, 2015, https://plus.maths.org/con tent/physics-elementary-particles; Guido Altarelli and James Wells, “Gauge Theories and the Standard Model”, in Collider Physics Within the Standard Model, vol. 937 of Lecture Notes in Physics, ed. James Wells (Cham, Switzerland: Springer Open, 2017), https://doi.org /10.1007/978-3-319-51920-3_1.

57. Подробнее о теории абиогенеза и эксперименте Миллера – Юри 1952 года, показавшем возможность химической эволюции см. Paul Anderson, “Abiogenesis”, Bozeman Science, YouTube video, June 25, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ceg-uQKM; “What Was the Miller-Urey Experiment”, Stated Clearly, YouTube video, October 27, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNijmxsKGbc.

58. Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, Stanford Encyclopedia; Luke A. Barnes, “The Fine-Tuning of the Universe for Intelligent Life”, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 29, no. 4 (2012): 529–64, doi:10.1071/AS12015.

59. Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, Stanford Encyclopedia; Lawrence J. Hall et al., “The Weak Scale from BBN”, Journal of High Energy Physics 2014, no. 12, article 134 (2014), doi.org/10.1007 /JHEP12(2014)134; Bernard J. Carr and Martin J. Rees, “The Anthropic Principle and the Structure of the Physical World”, Nature 278 (April 12, 1979): 605–12, https://www.na ture.com/articles/278605a0.

60. Craig J. Hogan, “Why the Universe Is Just So”, Reviews of Modern Physics 72, no. 4 (October 1, 2000): 1149–61, https://journals.aps.org/rmp/abstract/10.1103/RevModPhys.72.1149; Craig J. Hogan, “Quarks, Electrons, and Atoms in Closely Related Universes”, in Universe or Multiverse, ed. Bernard Carr (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 221–30.

61. Hogan, “Why the Universe Is Just So”; Hogan, “Quarks, Electrons, and Atoms”, 221–30.

62. Hogan, “Quarks, Electrons, and Atoms”, 224.

63. Hogan, “Quarks, Electrons, and Atoms”, 224–25.

64. Hogan, “Quarks, Electrons, and Atoms”, 224–25.

65. Подробный обзор физических законов и их «настроек», в том числе силы гравитации, необходимой для формирования тяжелых элементов: Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, Stanford Encyclopedia; Carr and Rees, “Anthropic Principle and the Structure of the Physical World”, 605–12.

66. Michael Brooks, “Gravity Mysteries: Why Is Gravity Fine-Tuned?”, New Scientist, June 10, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227123-000.

67. Tim Radford, “Just Six Numbers: The Deep Forces That Shape the Universe by Martin Rees – Review”, Guardian, June 8, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/jun/08/just-six-numbers-martin-rees-review; Brooks, “Gravity Mysteries: Why Is Gravity Fine-Tuned?”

68. Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, Stanford Encyclopedia; Max Tegmark and Martin J. Rees, “Why Is the Cosmic Microwave Background Fluctuation Level 10^–5?”, Astronomical Journal 499, no. 2 (June 1, 1998): 526–32, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/305673/pdf.

69. Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, Stanford Encyclopedia; Tegmark and Rees, “Why Is the Cosmic Microwave Background Fluctuation Level 10^–5?”

70. Martin J. Rees, Just Six Numbers: The Deep Forces That Shape the Universe (New York: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 1999), 104.

71. Rees, Just Six Numbers, 104.

72. Friedrich, “Fine-Tuning”, Stanford Encyclopedia; Roger Penrose, The Road to Reality: A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe (New York: Vintage, 2004), 729–30.

73. Tony Padilla, “How Many Particles in the Universe?”, Numberphile, YouTube video, July 10, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpj0E0a0mlU; Villanueva, “How Many Atoms Are in the Universe?”; Jacob Aron, “Number of Ways to Arrange 128 Balls Exceeds Atoms in Universe”, New Scientist, January 28, 2016, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2075593.

74. Luke Barnes (L. A. Barnes), “The Fine-Tuning of the Universe for Intelligent Life”, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 29, no. 4 (June 7, 2012): 531, https://www.publish.csiro.au/as/pdf/AS12015.

75. Brad Lemley, “Why Is There Life?”, Discover, November 2000, http://discovermagazine.com/2000/nov/cover.

76. Подробнее об антропном принципе, а также восхитительная беседа биолога и атеиста Ричарда Докинза и астронома и католика отца Джорджа Койна: Roberto Trotta, “What Is the Anthropic Principle?”, Physics World, YouTube video, January 17, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWkJ8Pl-8l8; Richard Dawkins and George Coyne, “The Anthropic Principle”, jlcamelo, July 9, 2010, https://youtu.be/lm9ZtYkd kEQ?t=102; Joe Rogan and Nick Bostrom, “Joe Rogan Experience #1350—Nick Bostrom”, PowerfulJRE, September 11, 2019, https://web.archive.org/web/20190918171740/https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4cv7rVlE8; Christopher Smeenk and George Ellis, “Philosophy of Cosmology”, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta (Winter 2017), https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/cosmology.

77. Lemley, “Why Is There Life?”

78. Простое объяснение принципов работы генеративно-состязательных сетей, а также несколько технологий будущего, которые позволят ИИ воссоздавать личности умерших: Robert Miles, “Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)”, Computerphile, YouTube video, October 25, 2017, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=Sw9r8CL98N0; Michael Kammerer, “I Trained an AI to Imitate My Own Art Style. This Is What Happened”, Towards Data Science, March 28, 2019, https://towardsdatascience.com/i-trained-an-ai-to-imitate-my-own-art-style-this-is-what-hap pened-461785b9a15b; Ana Santos Rutschman, “Artificial Intelligence Can Now Emulate Human Behaviors – Soon It Will Be Dangerously Good”, The Conversation, April 5, 2019, https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-can-now-emulate-human-behaviors-soon-it-will-be-dangerously-good-114136; Catherine Stupp, “Fraudsters Used AI to Mimic CEO’s Voice in Unusual Cybercrime Case”, Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/fraudsters-use-ai-to-mimic-ceos-voice-in-unusual-cyber crime-case-11567157402; David Nield, “New AI Generates Freakishly Realistic People Who Don’t Actually Exist”, Science Alert, February 19, 2019, https://www.sciencealert.com/ai-is-getting-creepily-good-at-generating-faces-for-people-who-don-t-actually-exist; Alec Radford et al., “Better Language Models and Their Implications”, OpenAI, February 14, 2019, https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models; Richard Socher, “Introducing a Conditional Transformer Language Model for Controllable Generation”, Salesforce Einstein, accessed March 10, 2023, https://blog.einstein.ai/introducing-a-cond itional-transformer-language-model-for-controllable-generation.

79. Jeffrey Grubb, “Google Duplex; A.I. Assistant Calls Local Businesses to Make Appointments”, Jeff Grubb’s Game Mess, YouTube video, May 8, 2018, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=D5VN56jQMWM.

80. Monkeypaw Productions and BuzzFeed, “You Won’t Believe What Obama Says in This Video”, BuzzFeedVideo, YouTube video, April 17, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ54GDm1eL0; “Could Deepfakes Weaken Democracy?”, Economist, YouTube video, October 22, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m2dRDQEC1A; Kristin Houser, “This ‘RoboTrump’ AI Mimics the President’s Writing Style”, Futurism, October 23, 2019, https://futurism.com/robotrump-ai-text-generator-trump.

81. “No Country for Old Actors”, Ctrl Shift Face, YouTube video, November 13, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow_uufCxm1A.

82. Casey Newton, “Speak, Memory”, The Verge, October 6, 2016, https://www.theverge.com /a/luka-artificial-intelligence-memorial-roman-mazurenko-bot.

83. Подробнее о научных основах эффекта «зловещей долины»: Michael Stevens, “Why Are Things Creepy?”, Vsauce, YouTube video, July 2, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEikGKDVsCc.

84. Подробнее о разработке реалистичных андроидов и парадоксе Моравеца: Tim Hornyak, “Insanely Humanlike Androids Have Entered the Workplace and Soon May Take Your Job,” CNBC, October 31, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/human-like-androids-have-entered-the-workplace-and-may-take-your-job.html; Jade Tan-Holmes, “Moravec’s Paradox – Why Are Machines So Smart, Yet So Dumb?”, Up and Atom, YouTube video, July 8, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcfVRkC3Dp0; J. C. Eccles, “Evolution of Consciousness”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 89, no. 16 (August 15, 1992): 7320–24, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles /PMC49701; Hans Moravec, Mind Children (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), 1–50.

85. John Hawks, “How Has the Human Brain Evolved?”, Scientific American Mind 24, no. 3 (July 1, 2013): 76, https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamericanmind0713-76b.

86. “ASIMO World2001-2/3”, jnomw, YouTube video, October 28, 2006, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=Ph_B_5hKRIE.

87. “More Parkour Atlas”, BostonDynamics, YouTube video, September 24, 2019, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sBBaNYex3E.

88. “Sophia the Robot by Hanson Robotics ”, Hanson Robotics Limited, YouTube video, September 5, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhU9hOo5Cuc; “Meet Little Sophia, Hanson Robotics’ Newest Robot”, Hanson Robotics Limited, YouTube video, February 11, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cGRPvN5430; “Ameca Expressions with GPT3 / 4”, Engineered Arts, YouTube video, March 31, 2023, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=yUszJyS3d7A.

89. Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap, technical report 2008-3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University (2008), 13, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf.

90. Sandberg and Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation, 80–81.

91. Несколько источников по теме резервного копирования и эмуляции мозга: S. A. Graziano, “How Close Are We to Uploading Our Minds?”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, October 29, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DWnvx1NYUA; Trace Dominguez, “How Close Are We to Downloading the Human Brain?”, Seeker, YouTube video, September 13, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE5e5zF6a-8; Michio Kaku, “Could We Transport Our Consciousness Into Robots?”, Big Think, YouTube video, May 31, 2011, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=tT1vxEpE1aI; Matt O’Dowd, “Computing a Universe Simulation”, PBS Space Time, YouTube video, October 10, 2018, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=0GLgZvTCbaA; Riken, “All-Atom Molecular Dynamics Simulation of the Bacterial Cytoplasm”, rikenchannel, YouTube video, June 6, 2017, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=5JcFgj2gHx8; “Scientists Create First Billion-Atom Biomolecular Simulation”, Los Alamos National Lab, YouTube video, April 22, 2019, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=jmeik65RkJw; “Matrioshka Brains”, Isaac Arthur, YouTube video, June 23, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef-mxjYkllw; Simon Makin, “The Four Biggest Challenges in Brain Simulation”, Nature 571, S9 (July 25, 2019), https://www.nature.com /articles/d41586-019-02209-z; Egidio D’Angelo et al., “Realistic Modeling of Neurons and Networks: Towards Brain Simulation”, Functional Neurology 28, no. 3 (July – September 2013): 153–66, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3812748; Elon Musk and Neuralink, “An Integrated Brain-Machine Interface Platform with Thousands of Channels”, Neuralink working paper, July 17, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1101/703801; Fujitsu, “Supercomputer Used to Simulate 3,000-Atom Nano Device”, Phys.org, January 14, 2014, https://phys.org/news/2014-01-supercomputer-simulate-atom-nano-device.html; Anders Sandberg, “Ethics of Brain Emulations,” Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence 26, no. 3 (April 14, 2014): 439–57, https://doi.org/10.1080/0952813X.2014.895113; Ray Kurzweil, How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed (New York: Viking, 2012).

92. Michael Merzenich, “Growing Evidence of Brain Plasticity”, TED video, February 2004, https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_merzenich_on_the_elastic_brain.

Глава 4. Уровень жизни растет экспоненциальными темпами

1. World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day (2017 PPP) (% of population)”, World Bank, accessed March 25, 2023, https://data.world bank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY; World Bank, “Population, Total for World (SPPOPTOTLWLD)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated July 4, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOPTOTLWLD.

2. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, “Literacy Rate, Adult Total (% of People Ages 15 and Above)”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, October 24 2022, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS.

3. Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2020: Five Years into the SDGs (Geneva: World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund, 2021), 9, https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1369501/retrieve.

4. World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a day”; World Bank, “Population, Total for World (SPPOPTOTLWLD)”.

5. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, “Literacy Rate, Adult Total”.

6. Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2020, 9.

7. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (New York: Viking, 1999).

8. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Viking, 2005).

9. Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012).

10. Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress (New York: Penguin, 2018).

11. Andrew Evans, “The First Thanksgiving Travel”, National Geographic, November 24, 2011, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/digital-nomad/2011/11/24/the-first-thanksgiving-travel.

12. Henry Fairlie, “Henry Fairlie on What Europeans Thought of Our Revolution”, New Republic, July 3, 2014, https://newrepublic.com/article/118527/american-revolution-what-did-europeans-think; Peter Stanford, “The Street of Ships in New York”, Boating 21, no. 1 (January 1967): 48, https://books.google.com/books?id=VsMYj3YIKLcC.

13. Vaclav Smil, “Crossing the Atlantic”, IEEE Spectrum, March 28, 2018, https://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/marine/crossing-the-atlantic.

14. Frank W. Geels, Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-Technical Analysis (Cambridge, UK: Edward Elgar, 2005), 135, https://books.google.com/books?id=SDfrb7TNX5 °C.

15. Steven Ujifusa, A Man and His Ship: America’s Greatest Naval Architect and His Quest to Build the S.S. United States (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), 152, https://books.goo gle.com/books?id=H6KB4q7M938C.

16. John C. Spychalski, “Transportation”, in The Columbia History of the 20th Century, ed. Richard W. Bulliet (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), 409, https://books.goo gle.com/books?id=9QsqpvR0nq0C.

17. Jason Paur, “Oct. 4, 1958: ‘Comets’ Debut Trans-Atlantic Jet Age”, Wired, October 4, 2010, https://www.wired.com/2010/10/1004first-transatlantic-jet-service-boac.

18. Howard Slutsken, “What It Was Really Like to Fly on Concorde”, CNN, March 2, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/concorde-flying-what-was-it-like/index.html.

19. “London to New York Flight Duration”, Finance.co.uk, последняя проверка доступности 14 апреля 2023 года, https://www.finance.co.uk/travel/flight-times-and-durations-calculator/london-to-new-york.

20. Интересная статья о роли конфликта в сюжете, а также доказательство, что в новостях предпочтение отдается негативным событиям: Jerry Flattum, “What Is a Story? Conflict – The Foundation of Storytelling”, Script, March 18, 2013, https://scriptmag.com/features/conflict-the-foundation-of-story telling; Stuart Soroka, Patrick Fournier, and Lilach Nir, “Cross-National Evidence of a Negativity Bias in Psychophysiological Reactions to News”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 38 (September 17, 2019): 18888–92, https://doi.org/10.1073 /pnas.1908369116.

21. Подробнее о том, как алгоритмы социальных сетей разжигают конфликты и способствуют радикализации мнений: “Jonathan Haidt: How Social Media Drives Polarization”, Amanpour and Company, YouTube video, December 4, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9ofYEfewNE; Eli Pariser, “How News Feed Algorithms Supercharge Confirmation Bias”, Big Think, YouTube video, December 18, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prx9bxzns3g; Damon Centola, “Why Social Media Makes Us More Polarized and How to Fix It”, Scientific American, October 15, 2020, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-social-media-makes-us-more-polarized-and-how-to-fix-it.

22. Max Roser, “Economic Growth”, Our World in Data, accessed October 11, 2021, https:// ourworldindata.org/economic-growth; Ryland Thomas and Nicholas Dimsdale, “A Millennium of UK Data”, Bank of England OBRA dataset, 2017, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/statistics/research-datasets/a-millennium-of-macroeconomic-data-for-the-uk.xlsx; “Inflation Calculator”, Bank of England, последняя проверка доступности 14 апреля 2023 года, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator; Stephen Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth, 1270–1870 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2015).

23. Roser, “Economic Growth”; Thomas and Dimsdale, “A Millennium of UK Data”; “Inflation Calculator”, Bank of England; Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth.

24. Roser, “Economic Growth”; Thomas and Dimsdale, “A Millennium of UK Data”; “Inflation Calculator”, Bank of England; Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth.

25. Roser, “Economic Growth”; Thomas and Dimsdale, “A Millennium of UK Data”; “Inflation Calculator”, Bank of England; Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth.

26. Peter Nowak, “The Rise of Mean World Syndrome in Social Media”, Globe and Mail, November 6, 2014, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/relationships/the-rise-of-mean-world-syndrome-in-social-media/article21481089.

27. Подробнее об этих исследованиях: Paula McGrath, “Why Good Memories Are Less Likely to Fade”, BBC News, May 4, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/health-27193607; Colin Allen, “Past Perfect: Why Bad Memories Fade”, Psychology Today, June 3, 2003, https:// www.psychologytoday.com/us/articles/200306/past-perfect-why-bad-memories-fade; W. Richard Walker, John J. Skowronski, and Charles P. Thompson, “Life Is Pleasant – and Memory Helps to Keep It That Way!”, Review of General Psychology 7, no. 2 (June 2003): 203–10, https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/gpr-72203.pdf.

28. Walker, Skowronski, and Thompson, “Life Is Pleasant”.

29. Timothy D. Ritchie et al., “A Pancultural Perspective on the Fading Affect Bias in Autobiographical Memory”, Memory 23, no. 2 (February 14, 2014): 278–90, https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2014.884138.

30. John Tierney, “What Is Nostalgia Good For? Quite a Bit, Research Shows”, New York Times, July 8, 2013, https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/science/what-is-nostalgia-good-for-quite-a-bit-research-shows.html.

31. Mike Mariani, “How Nostalgia Made America Great Again”, Nautilus, April 20, 2017, https://nautil.us/how-nostalgia-made-america-great-again-236556.

32. Ed O’Brien and Nadav Klein, “The Tipping Point of Perceived Change: Asymmetric Thresholds in Diagnosing Improvement Versus Decline”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 112, no. 2 (February 2017): 161–85, https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000070.

33. Art Markman, “How Do You Decide Things Are Getting Worse?”, Psychology Today, February 7, 2017, https://www.psychologytoday.com/nz/blog/ulterior-motives/201702/how-do-you-decide-things-are-getting-worse.

34. Robert P. Jones et al., The Divide over America’s Future: 1950 or 2050? Findings from the 2016 American Values Survey, Public Religion Research Institute, October 25, 2016, https:// www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PRRI-2016-American-Values-Survey.pdf; Mariani, “How Nostalgia Made America Great Again”.

35. Pete Etchells, “Declinism: Is the World Actually Getting Worse?”, Guardian, January 16, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2015/jan/16/declinism-is-the-world-actually-getting-worse.

36. Martijn Lampert, Anne Blanksma Çeta, and Panos Papadongonas, Increasing Knowledge and Activating Millennials for Making Poverty History, Glocalities global survey report, July 2018, https://xs.motivaction.nl/fileArchive/?f=116335&o=5880&key=4444.

37. Ipsos, “Perceptions Are Not Reality”, Ipsos Perils of Perception blog, July 8, 2013, https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/perceptions-are-not-reality.

38. Jamiles Lartey et al., “Ahead of Midterms, Most Americans Say Crime Is Up. What Does the Data Say?”, Marshall Project, November 5, 2022, https://www.themarshallproject.org /2022/11/05/ahead-of-midterms-most-americans-say-crime-is-up-what-does-the-data-say; Dara Lind, “The US Is Safer Than Ever – and Americans Don’t Have any Idea”, Vox, April 7, 2016, https://www.vox.com/2015/5/4/8546497/crime-rate-america.

39. Julia Belluz, “You May Think the World Is Falling Apart. Steven Pinker Is Here to Tell You It Isn’t”, Vox, September 10, 2016, https://www.vox.com/2016/8/16/12486586/2016-worst-year-ever-violence-trump-terrorism.

40. Видео, в которых простым языком рассказывается об исследованиях Канемана и Тверски; оригинальная научная статья: “Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman: Animated Book Summary”, FightMediocrity, YouTube video, June 5, 2015, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=uqXVAo7dVRU; “Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman #2—Heuristics and Biases: Animated Book Summary”, One Percent Better, YouTube video, November 12, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_wBt5aSRYY; “Kahneman and Tversky: How Heuristics Impact Our Judgment”, Intermittent Diversion, YouTube video, June 7, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IjIVD-KYF4; Richard H. Thaler et al., “The Effect of Myopia and Loss Aversion on Risk Taking: An Experimental Test”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, no. 2 (May 1997): 647–61, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2951249; Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “The Psychology of Preferences”, Scientific American 246, no. 1 (January 1981): 160–73; Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982); Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”, Science 185, no. 4157 (September 27, 1974): 1124–31, http://doi.org /10.1126/science.185.4157.1124; Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “On the Study of Statistical Intuitions”, Cognition 11, no. 2 (March 1982): 123–41; Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Variants of Uncertainty”, Cognition 11, no. 2 (March 1982): 143–57.

41. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), 7; Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “On the Psychology of Prediction”, Psychological Review 80, no. 4 (1973): 237–51, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747.

42. Tversky and Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty”, 1125–26.

43. Tversky and Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty”, 1127–28.

44. Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy,” Our World in Data, September 20, 2018, https://ourworldindata.org/literacy; Eltjo Buringh and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Charting the ‘Rise of the West’: Manuscripts and Printed Books in Europe, a Long-Term Perspective from the Sixth Through Eighteenth Centuries”, Journal of Economic History 69, no. 2 (June 2009): 409–45, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050709000837.

45. Franz H. Bäuml, “Varieties and Consequences of Medieval Literacy and Illiteracy”, Speculum 55, no. 2 (April 1980): 237–65, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2847287; Denise E. Murray, “Changing Technologies, Changing Literacy Communities?”, Language Learning & Technology 4, no. 2 (September 2000): 39–53, https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/bit stream/10125/25099/1/04_02_murray.pdf.

46. Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; Buringh and van Zanden, “Charting the ‘Rise of the West’”, 409–45.

47. Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; Sevket Pamuk and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Standards of Living”, in The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1: 1700–1870, ed. Stephen Broadberry and Kevin H. O’Rourke (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010), 229.

48. Christelle Garrouste, 100 Years of Educational Reforms in Europe: A Contextual Database, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, European Union, 2010, https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC57357/reqno_jrc57357.pdf.

49. Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; Jan Luiten van Zanden et al., eds., How Was Life?: Global Well-being Since 1820 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2014), https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264214262-en.

50. Van Zanden et al., How Was Life?; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Literacy, 1969–1971: Progress Achieved in Literacy Throughout the World (Paris: UNESCO, 1972), https://unesdoc.unesco.org/in/rest/annotationSVC/DownloadWatermarked Attachment/attach_import_c0206949-c3f1-4eac-a189-9c5bcfdac220.

51. Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; Roy Carr-Hill and José Pessoa, International Literacy Statistics: A Review of Concepts, Methodology and Current Data (Montreal: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2008), http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/international-literacy-statistics-a-review-of-concepts-methodology-and-current-data-en_0.pdf; van Zanden et al., How Was Life?; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Literacy, 1969–1971; Friedrich Huebler and Weixin Lu, Adult and Youth Literacy: National, Regional and Global Trends, 1985–2015, UIS Information Paper (Montreal: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2013), http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/adult-and-youth-literacy-national-regional-and-global-trends-1985-2015-en_0.pdf.

52. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, “Literacy Rate, Adult Total”; Central Intelligence Agency, “Field Listing – Literacy”, CIA World Factbook, accessed October 11, 2021, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/literacy.

53. National Assessment of Adult Literacy, A First Look at the Literacy of America’s Adults in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2005): 5, https:// nces.ed.gov/NAAL/PDF/2006470.PDF.

54. Madeline Goodman et al., Literacy, Numeracy, and Problem Solving in Technology-Rich Environments Among U.S. Adults: Results from the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies 2012: First Look (NCES 2014-008) (Washington, DC: US Department of Education, 2013), 14, https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2014/2014008.pdf.

55. Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; Bas van Leeuwen and Jieli van Leeuwen-Li, “Education Since 1820”, in How Was Life?: Global Well-Being Since 1820, ed. Jan Luiten van Zanden et al. (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264214262-9-en; UNESCO Institute for Statistics, “Literacy Rate, Adult Total”; Tom Snyder, ed., 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 1993), excerpted at http://nces.ed.gov/naal/lit_history.asp.

56. Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; van Leeuwen and van Leeuwen-Li, “Education Since 1820”; UNESCO Institute for Statistics, “Literacy Rate, Adult Total”; Snyder, ed., 120 Years of American Education; Buringh and van Zanden, “Charting the ‘Rise of the West’”, 409–45; Pamuk and van Zanden, “Standards of Living”, 229; “Illiteracy, 1870–2010, All Countries”, Montevideo-Oxford Latin American Economic History Data Base, accessed October 31, 2021, http://moxlad.cienciassociales.edu.uy/en; UNESCO Institute for Statistics, “Literacy Rate, Adult Total (% of People Ages 15 and Above) – Argentina, Brazil”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, September 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS?locations=AR-BR.

57. Hannah Ritchie et al., “Global Education”, Our World in Data, 2016, последняя проверка доступности 29 октября 2021 года, https://ourworldindata.org/global-education; Jong-Wha Lee and Hanol Lee, “Human Capital in the Long Run”, Journal of Development Economics 122 (September 2016): 147–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.05.006, data available at http://www.barrolee.com/Lee_Lee_LRdata_dn.htm.

58. Richie et al., “Global Education”; Lee and Lee, “Human Capital in the Long Run”; Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, Public Spending in the 20th Century: A Global Perspective (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000), https://www.google.com/books/edi tion/Public_Spending_in_the_20th_Century/kHl6xCgd3aAC?gbpv=1.

59. Richie et al., “Global Education”; Lee and Lee, “Human Capital in the Long Run”; Robert J. Barro and Jong Wha Lee, “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010”, Journal of Development Economics 104 (September 2013): 184–98, https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001, data available at http://www.barrolee.com/data /yrsch2.htm.

60. “Human Development Index and Its Components”, United Nations Development Programme, accessed March 19, 2023, available for download at https://hdr.undp.org/sites /default/files/2021-22_HDR/HDR21-22_Statistical_Annex_HDI_Table.xlsx.

61. “Human Development Index and Its Components”, United Nations Development Programme.

62. National Center for Education Statistics, “Expenditures of Educational Institutions Related to the Gross Domestic Product, by Level of Institution: Selected Years, 1929–30 Through 2020–21”, in Digest of Education Statistics: 2021, US Department of Education, March 2023, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_106.10.asp; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 12, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPI AUCSL.

63. National Center for Education Statistics, “Expenditures of Educational Institutions Related to the Gross Domestic Product”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated January 26, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B230RC0A052NBEA; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

64. Программа развития ООН публикует самые подробные и достоверные данные, но только начиная с 1990 года. Данные за 1870–2017 гг., опубликованные организацией «Наш мир в данных» (Our World in Data), основываются на архивных источниках, которые не следуют общей методике. Чтобы сделать информацию сопоставимой и выявить изменения за весь промежуток времени, мы использовали данные ПРООН за период 1990–2021 гг., а данные НМД нормировали таким образом, чтобы не было расхождений с данными ПРООН за 1990-й. См. “Human Development Insights”, United Nations Development Programme Human Development Reports, accessed March 22, 2023, https:// hdr.undp.org/data-center/country-insights#/ranks; Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Education”; Lee and Lee, “Human Capital in the Long Run”; Barro and Lee, “New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010”.

65. Подробнее о роли заболеваний, переносимых водой, в истории здравоохранения: “What Exactly Is Typhoid Fever?”, Seeker, YouTube video, August 20, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1lKW2CYU68; “The Pandemic the World Has Forgotten”, Seeker, YouTube video, September 8, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hj95IZMl ZWw; “The Story of Cholera”, Global Health Media Project, YouTube video, December 10, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jG1VNSCsP5Q; Theodore H. Tulchinsky and Elena A. Varavikova, “A History of Public Health”, The New Public Health, October 10, 2014, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-415766-8.00001-X.

66. Suzanne Spellen, “From Pakistan to Brooklyn: A Quick History of the Bathroom”, Brownstoner, November 28, 2016, https://www.brownstoner.com/architecture/victorian-bath room-history-plumbing-brooklyn-architecture-interiors; Anthony Mitchell Sammarco, The Great Boston Fire of 1872 (Charleston, SC: Arcadia, 1997), 30, https://books.google.com/books?id=v3lzw5d2K8wC; Price V. Fishback, Soft Coal, Hard Choices: The Economic Welfare of Bituminous Coal Miners, 1890–1930 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), 170, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Soft_Coal_Hard_Choices/EjnnCwAAQBAJ; Stanley Lebergott, Wealth and Want (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1975), 7, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Wealth_and_Want/Lrx9BgAAQBAJ; “Historical Census of Housing Tables: Sewage Disposal”, US Census Bureau, 1990, revised October 8, 2021, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html; Gary M. Walton and Hugh Rockoff, History of the American Economy, 13th ed. (Boston: Cengage Learning, 2017), 377.

67. Walton and Rockoff, History of the American Economy, 377; US Census Bureau, “Historical Census of Housing Tables: Sewage Disposal”.

68. См., например, Susan Carpenter, “After Two Years of Eco-Living, What Works and What Doesn’t”, Los Angeles Times, March 11, 2014, https://www.latimes.com/home/la-hm-realist-main-20101016-story.html.

69. Jane Otai, “Happy #WorldToiletDay! Here’s What It’s Like To Live Without One”, NPR, November 19, 2015, https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/11/19/456495448/happy-worldtoiletday-here-s-what-it-s-like-to-live-without-one.

70. WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene, “People Using Safely Managed Sanitation Services (% of Population)”, retrieved from worldbank.org, accessed October 12, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator /SH.STA.SMSS.ZS.

71. Stanley Lebergott, Pursuing Happiness: American Consumers in the Twentieth Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), 102, https://www.google.com/books/edition /Pursuing_Happiness/bD0ABAAAQBAJ; US Census Bureau, “Historical Census of Housing Tables: Sewage Disposal”; Marc Jeuland et al., “Water and Sanitation: Economic Losses from Poor Water and Sanitation – Past, Present, and Future”, in How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World?, ed. Bjørn Lomborg (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 333; David A. Raglin, “Plumbing and Kitchen Facilities in Housing Units”, 2015 American Community Survey Research and Evaluation Report Memorandum Series No. ACS15-RER-06, US Census Bureau, May 29, 2015, 3, https://www.cen sus.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2015/acs/2015_Raglin_01.pdf; Katie Meehan et al., Plumbing Poverty in U.S. Cities: A Report on Gaps and Trends in Household Water Access, 2000 to 2017, King’s College London, September 27, 2021, 4, https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/files/159767495/Plumbing_Poverty_in_US_Cities.pdf; US Census Bureau, “Total Households (TTLHH)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated November 21, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH; WHO/ UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene, “People Using at Least Basic Sanitation Services (% of Population)”, retrieved from World bank.org, accessed April 28, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.BASS.ZS; WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene, “Improved Sanitation Facilities (% of Population with Access)”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, updated January 25, 2018, accessed April 28, 2023, originally available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/millennium-development-goals/Series/SH.STA.ACSN; World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund, Progress on Sanitation and Drinking Water—2015 Update and MDG Assessment, World Health Organization, 2015, 14, https://data.unicef.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Progress-on-Sanita tion-and-Drinking-Water_234.pdf; Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2020: Five Years into the SDGs (Geneva: World Health Organization and the United Nations Children’s Fund, 2021), 7, https://washdata.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/jmp-2021-wash-households.pdf.

72. Elizabeth Nix, “How Edison, Tesla and Westinghouse Battled to Electrify America”, History.com, October 24, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/what-was-the-war-of-the-cur rents; Harold D. Wallace Jr., “Power from the People: Rural Electrification Brought More than Lights”, National Museum of American History, February 12, 2016, https://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/rural-electrification; Stanley Lebergott, The American Economy: Income, Wealth and Want (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), 334, https:// www.google.com/books/edition/The_American_Economy/HYV9BgAAQBAJ.

73. Подробнее об электрификации сельских районов Америки: “On the Line – Rural Electrification Administration Film”, Russell Library Audiovisual Collections, YouTube video, June 4, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbAM-CwOxu0; General Electric, “More Power to the American Farmer—1946”, miSci: Museum of Innovation and Science, YouTube video, June 13, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY5eFQTYkaw; US Department of Agriculture, Rural Electrification Administration, Rural Lines, USA: The Story of the Rural Electrification Administration’s First Twenty-five Years, 1935–1960, US Department of Agriculture Miscellaneous Publication No. 811 (1960), https://www.google.com /books/edition/Rural_Lines_USA/IBkuAAAAYAAJ; US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, part 1 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 1975), 827, https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/histstats-colonial-1970.pdf.

74. US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, part 1.

75. Lily Odarno, “Closing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Electricity Access Gap: Why Cities Must Be Part of the Solution”, World Resources Institute, August 14, 2019, https://www.wri.org /blog/2019/08/closing-sub-saharan-africa-electricity-access-gap-why-cities-must-be-part-solution; Giacomo Falchetta et al., “Satellite Observations Reveal Inequalities in the Progress and Effectiveness of Recent Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa”, One Earth 2, no. 4 (April 24, 2020): 364–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.007.

76. IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank, and WHO, “Access to Electricity (% of Population)”, from Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS.

77. Daron Acemoğlu and James A. Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (New York: Crown, 2012).

78. Lebergott, The American Economy: Income, Wealth and Want, 334; US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, part 1; IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank, and WHO, “Access to Electricity (% of Population)”; IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank, and WHO, “Access to Electricity (% of Population) – United States”, from Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023), https:// data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=US; World Bank, “Access to Electricity (% of Population)”, Sustainable Energy or All (SE4ALL) database, SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework, retrieved from Worldbank.org, accessed April 28, 2023, originally available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS.

79. US Census Bureau, “Selected Communications Media: 1920 to 1998”, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1999 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 1999): 885, https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/radioownership1920-1998.pdf.

80. US Census Bureau, “Selected Communications Media: 1920 to 1998”.

81. “Kathleen Hall Jamieson on Talk Radio’s History and Impact”, PBS.org, February 13, 2004, https://web.archive.org/web/20170301204706/https://www.pbs.org/now/politics/talk radiohistory.html; “‘Radio’ Listening Dominates Audio In-Cat”, Edison Research, January 11, 2019, https://www.edisonresearch.com/am-fm-radio-still-dominant-audio-in-car; Aniko Bodroghkozy, ed., A Companion to the History of American Broadcasting (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2018).

82. Ezra Klein, “Something Is Breaking American Politics, but It’s Not Social Media”, Vox, April 12, 2017, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/12/15259438/social-media-political-polarization; Jeffrey M. Berry and Sarah Sobieraj, “Understanding the Rise of Talk Radio”, PS: Political Science and Politics 44, no. 4 (October 2011): 762–67, https://www.jstor.org/stable/41319965.

83. “Audio and Podcasting Fact Sheet”, Pew Research Center, June 29, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org /journalism/fact-sheet/audio-and-podcasting.

84. Подробнее об изобретении и первых днях развития телевидения: “The Invention of Television (1929)”, British Pathé, YouTube video, April 13, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwJ2bMATIAM; “The Origins of Television”, Nirali Pathak, YouTube video, January 2, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uM7ZD5f9Pb8; “Evolution of Television 1920–2020”, Captain Gizmo, YouTube video, December 18, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PveVwQhNnq8; Albert Abramson, The History of Television, 1880–1941 (Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 1987).

85. Подробнее о телевидении в 1939-м и о приостановке развития технологии во время Второй мировой войны: “What Television Was Like in 1939”, Smithsonian Channel, YouTube video, December 30, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj_Mcpff-Ks; BBC, “Close Down of Television Service for the Duration of the War”, History of the BBC, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/historyofthebbc/anniversaries/september/closedown-of-television; “Television Facts and Statistics—1939 to 2000”, TVhistory.tv, accessed March 31, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20220331223237/http://www.tvhistory.tv/facts-stats.htm.

86. Cobbett S. Steinberg, TV Facts, Facts on File (1980), 142, available in part at “Television Facts and Statistics—1939 to 2000”, TVhistory.tv, accessed March 31, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20220331223237/http://www.tvhistory.tv/facts-stats.htm.

87. Steinberg, TV Facts, 142.

88. Lance Venta, “Infinite Dial: Mean Number of Radios In Home Drops in Half Since 2008”, Radio Insight, March 20, 2020, https://radioinsight.com/headlines/184900/infinite-dial-mean-number-of-radios-in-home-drops-in-half-since-2008; “Mobile Fact Sheet”, Pew Research Center, April 7, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile; US Census Bureau, “Selected Communications Media: 1920 to 1998”, 885; Douglas B. Craig, Fireside Politics: Radio and Political Culture in the United States, 1920–1940 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000; paperback, 2006), 12, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Fireside_Politics/haWh203m7aIC; US Census Bureau, “Utilization of Selected Media: 1980 to 2005”, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2008 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 2007): 704, https://www.census.gov/prod/2007pubs/08abstract/infocomm.pdf; US Census Bureau, “Utilization and Number of Selected Media: 2000 to 2009”, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2012 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 2011): 712, https://www.google.com/books/edition/Statistical_Abstract_of_the_United_State/pW9NAQAAMAAJ.

89. Steinberg, TV Facts, 142; US Census Bureau, “Total Households (TTLHH)”; Jack W. Plunkett, Plunkett’s Entertainment & Media Industry Almanac 2006 (Houston, TX: Plunkett Research, 2006), 35.

90. Во время подготовки книги в 2023-м последние опубликованные данные компании Nielsen относились к первой половине 2021-го. См. Plunkett, Plunkett’s Entertainment & Media Industry Almanac 2006, 35; “Nielsen Estimates 121 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2020–2021 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, August 28, 2020, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2020/nielsen-estimates-121-million-tv-homes-in-the-u-s-for-the-2020-2021-tv-season.

91. Rick Porter, “TV Long View: Five Years of Network Ratings Declines in Context”, Hollywood Reporter, September 21, 2019, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/five-years-network-ratings-declines-explained-1241524; Sapna Maheshwari and John Koblin, “Why Traditional TV Is in Trouble”, New York Times, May 13, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com /2018/05/13/business/media/television-advertising.html.

92. Подробнее о значении Altair 8800 в истории вычислительной техники: Jason Fitzpatrick, “The Computer That Changed Everything (Altair 8800)”, Computerphile, YouTube video, May 15, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwEmnfy2BhI; “The PC That Started Microsoft & Apple! (Altair 8800)”, ColdFusion, YouTube video, March 18, 2016, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5lpOskKF9I.

93. US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957 (Washington, DC: US Government Publishing Office, 1960), 491, https://www.google.co.uk/books /edition/Historical_Statistics_of_the_United_Stat/hyI1AAAAIAAJ; US Census Bureau, “Total Households (TTLHH)”; Steinberg, TV Facts, 142; Plunkett, Plunkett’s Entertainment & Media Industry Almanac 2006, 35; “Nielsen: 109.6 Million TV Households in the U.S.”, HispanicAd.com, July 30, 2004, http://hispanicad.com/blog/news-article/had/research /nielsen-1096-million-tv-households-us; “Late News”, AdAge, August 29, 2005, https://adage.com/article/late-news/late-news/104427; TVTechnology, “Nielsen Reports Slight Increase in TV Households”, TV Tech, August 28, 2006, https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/nielsen-reports-slight-increase-in-tv-households; Variety Staff, “TV Nation: 112.8 Million Strong”, Variety, August 23, 2007, https://variety.com/2007/tv/opinion/tv-nation-1128-22127/?jwsource=cl; “Nielsen Reports Growth of 4.4 % in Asian and 4.3 % in Hispanic U.S. Households for 2008–2009 Television Season”, Nielsen Company, August 28, 2008, https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/press_release34.pdf; “114.9 Million U.S. Television Homes Estimated for 2009–2010 Season”, Nielsen Company, August 29, 2009, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2009/1149-million-us-televi sion-homes-estimated-for-2009-2010-season; “Number of U.S. TV Households Climbs by One Million for 2010–11 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, August 27, 2010, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2010/number-of-u-s-tv-households-climbs-by-one-million-for-2010-11-tv-season; Cynthia Littleton, “Nielsen Tackles Web Viewing”, Variety, February 25, 2013, https://variety.com/2013/digital/news/nielsen-tackles-web-viewing-1118066529; “Nielsen Estimates 115.6 Million TV Homes in the U.S., Up 1.2 %”, Nielsen Company, May 7, 2013, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2013/nielsen-estimates-115-6-million-tv-homes-in-the-u-s-up-1-2; “Nielsen Estimates More Than 116 Million TV Homes in the U.S.”, Nielsen Company, August 29, 2014, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2014/nielsen-estimates-more-than-116-million-tv-homes-in-the-us; “Nielsen Estimates 116.4 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2015–16 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, August 28, 2015, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/in sights/article/2015/nielsen-estimates-116-4-million-tv-homes-in-the-us-for-the-2015-16-tv-season; “Nielsen Estimates 118.4 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2016–17 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, August 26, 2016, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article /2016/nielsen-estimates-118-4-million-tv-homes-in-the-us-for-the-2016-17-season; “Nielsen Estimates 119.6 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2017–18 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, August 25, 2017, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2017/nielsen-estimates-119-6-million-us-tv-homes-2017-2018-tv-season; “Nielsen Estimates 119.9 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2018–2019 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, September 7, 2018, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2018/nielsen-estimates-119-9-million-tv-homes-in-the-us-for-the-2018-19-season; “Nielsen Estimates 120.6 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2019–2020 TV Season”, Nielsen Company, August 27, 2019, https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2019/nielsen-estimates-120-6-mil lion-tv-homes-in-the-u-s-for-the-2019-202-tv-season; “Nielsen Estimates 121 Million TV Homes in the U.S. for the 2020–2021 TV Season”.

94. Подробнее о том, как персональные компьютеры перевернули мир: Carrie Anne Philbin, “The Personal Computer Revolution: Crash Course Computer Science #25”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, August 23, 2017, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=M5BZou6C01w; “History of Apple I and Steve Jobs’ Personal Computer”, TechCrunch, YouTube video, April 17, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTJPdHei bOQ; “History of Microsoft —1975”, jonpaulmoen, YouTube video, December 18, 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLaMbaVT22E; Leo Rowe, “History of Personal Computers Part 1”, (from Triumph of the Nerds, PBS, 1996), Chasing 80, YouTube video, December 17, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIBr-kPgYuU; Gerard O’Regan, A Brief History of Computing, 2nd ed. (London: Springer, 2008).

95. “1984 Apple ’s Macintosh Commercial”, Mac History, YouTube video, February 1, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtvjbmoDx-I; “Computer and Internet Use in the United States: 1984 to 2009”, US Census Bureau, February 2010, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/computer-internet/computer-use-1984-2009.html.

96. “Internet Host Count History”, Internet Systems Consortium, accessed May 18, 2012, https://web.archive.org/web/20120518101749/http://www.isc.org/solutions/survey/history; 3way Labs, “Internet Domain Survey, January, 2019”, Internet Systems Consortium, последняя проверка доступности 28 апреля 2023 года, http://ftp.isc.org/www/survey/reports/current.

97. “Internet Host Count History”, Internet Systems Consortium; 3way Labs, “Internet Domain Survey, January, 2019”.

98. Arielle Sumits, “The History and Future of Internet Traffic”, Cisco, August 28, 2015, https://blogs.cisco.com/sp/the-history-and-future-of-internet-traffic.

99. “QuickFacts United States”, US Census Bureau, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/HCN010217; Michael Martin, “Computer and Internet Use in the United States: 2018”, American Community Survey Reports ACS-49, US Census Bureau, April 2021, https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/computer-internet-use.html.

100. Оценка базируется в основном на данных Международного союза электросвязи. Хотя МСЭ напрямую не собирает данные о том, какая доля домохозяйств владеет компьютером, смартфоном или планшетом (что было бы оптимальной метрикой), эта организация может оценить процент домохозяйств с доступом в интернет – достаточно близкая величина. Мы можем заключить, что в этих домах имеется компьютер. Останется неучтенным определенное количество домохозяйств, в которых есть компьютер, но нет доступа в интернет, поэтому такая оценка является консервативной. См. “Statistics – Individuals Using the Internet”, International Telecommunication Union, January 31, 2023, https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx; “Key ICT Indicators for Developed and Developing Countries”, ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database.

101. Данные включают в себя компьютеры, планшеты и смартфоны. См. “Computer and Internet Access in the United States: 2012—Table 4: Households with a Computer and Internet Use: 1984 to 2012”, US Census Bureau, February 3, 2014, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/computer-internet/2012/com puter-use-2012/table4.xls; Thom File and Camille Ryan, “Computer and Internet Use in the United States: 2013”, American Community Survey Reports ACS-28, US Census Bureau, November 2014, 3, https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2017/acs/acs-37.pdf; Camille Ryan and Jamie M. Lewis, “Computer and Internet Use in the United States: 2015”, American Community Survey Reports ACS-37, US Census Bureau, September 2017, 4, https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2017/acs/acs-37.pdf; Martin, “Computer and Internet Use in the United States: 2018”; International Telecommunication Union, “Key ICT Indicators for Developed and Developing Countries, the World and Special Regions (Totals and Penetration Rates)”, from ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database, International Telecommunication Union, November 2020, https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts /ITU_regional_global_Key_ICT_indicator_aggregates_Nov_2020.xlsx; “Statistics – Indi viduals Using the Internet”, International Telecommunication Union; International Telecommunication Union, “Key ICT Indicators for the World and Special Regions (Totals and Penetration Rates)”, ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database, November 2022, updated February 15, 2023, https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ITU_regional_global_Key_ICT_indicator_aggregates_Nov_2022_revised _15Feb2023.xlsx.

102. “Drug Discovery and Development Process”, Novartis, YouTube video, January 14, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gl0gAcW8rw; Robert Gaynes, “The Discovery of Penicillin – New Insights After More than 75 Years of Clinical Use”, Emerging Infectious Diseases 23, no. 5 (May 2017): 849–53, http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2305.161556; Sabrina Barr, “Penicillin Allergy: How Common Is It and What Are the Symptoms”, Independent, October 23, 2018, https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/penicillin-allergy-how-common-symptoms-antibiotic-drug-bacteria-a8597246.html.

103. Dan Usher, Political Economy (Malden, MA: Wiley, 2003), 5, https://books.google.com /books?id=-2210y5aPZgC; Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, and Bernadeta Dadonaite, “Child and Infant Mortality”, Our World in Data, November 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality; Anthony A. Volk and Jeremy A. Atkinson, “Infant and Child Death in the Human Environment of Evolutionary Adaptation”, Evolution and Human Behavior 34, no. 3 (May 2013): 182–92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2012.11.007Get.

104. Mattias Lindgren, “Life Expectancy at Birth”, Gapminder, последняя проверка доступности 28 апреля 2023 года, https://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd004.

105. Toshiko Kaneda, Charlotte Greenbaum, and Carl Haub, 2021 World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau, August 2021, https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads /2021/08/letter-booklet-2021-world-population.pdf; Lindgren, “Life Expectancy at Birth”.

106. Терри Гроссман и я подробно описываем первый, второй и третий мост на пути к бессмертию в книге «Transcend. Девять шагов на пути к вечной жизни» (2009). В ней рассказывается о здоровье и долголетии. А четвертый мост – перенос нашего сознания на небиологические носители, что позволит его расширить и скопировать – более детально описывается в данной книге. См. Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever (Emmaus, PA: Rodale, 2009). (Перевод на русский язык: Transcend. Девять шагов на пути к вечной жизни; ООО «Манн, Иванов и Фербер», 2019.)

107. Lindgren, “Life Expectancy at Birth”.

108. “Products”, Sequencing.com, accessed March 25, 2023, https://web.archive.org/web/20230315065708/https://sequencing.com/products/purchase-kit; Elizabeth Pennisi, “A $100 Genome? New DNA Sequencers Could Be a ‘Game Changer’ for Biology, Medicine”, Science, June 15, 2022, https://www.science.org/content/article/100-genome-new-dna-sequencers-could-be-game-changer-biology-medicine; Kris A. Wetterstrand, “The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome”, National Human Genome Research Institute, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost; Kris A. Wetterstrand, “DNA Sequencing Costs: Data”, National Human Genome Research Institute, November 1, 2021, https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data; Andrew Carroll and Pi-Chuan Chang, “Improving the Accuracy of Genomic Analysis with DeepVariant 1.0”, Google AI Blog, Google Research, September 18, 2020, https://ai.googleblog.com/2020/09/improving-accuracy-of-genomic-analysis.html.

109. Подробнее об использовании нейросетей в клинической медицине: Bernard Marr, “How Is AI Used in Healthcare—5 Powerful Real-World Examples that Show the Latest Advances”, Forbes, July 27, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018 /07/27/how-is-ai-used-in-healthcare-5-powerful-real-world-examples-that-show-the-latest-advances/#55fa6ef05dfb; Giovanni Briganti and Olivier Le Moine, “Artificial Intelligence in Medicine: Today and Tomorrow”, Frontiers in Medicine 7, article 27 (February 5, 2020), https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00027.

110. В главе 6 мы гораздо подробнее обсудим факторы, ограничивающие срок человеческой жизни 120 годами. Как мы узнаем, в последние несколько лет исследователи обнаружили конкретные биохимические процессы, вызывающие старение, и сейчас, в 2023-м, ведутся активные работы по каждому из направлений. Это не значит, что мы сможем раз и навсегда победить старение и жить вечно, но рано или поздно наступит поворотный момент, после которого каждый год достижения медицины будут прибавлять к ожидаемой продолжительности нашей жизни более одного года и прогресс достигнет в некотором смысле «скорости убегания от старения».

111. В связи с искажениями, вызванными пандемией COVID-19, 2020-й – последний год, для которого во время написания книги существовали корректные таблицы ожидаемой продолжительности жизни граждан Великобритании. См. “English Life Tables”, Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom), September 1, 2015, https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2flifeexpectancies%2fdatasets%2f2englishlifetables%2fcurrent/eolselt1to17_tcm77-414359.xls; “National Life Tables, United Kingdom, Period Expectation of Life, Based on Data for the Years 2018–2020”, Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom), September 23, 2021, https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2Fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2Fbirth sdeathsandmarriages%2Flifeexpectancies%2Fdatasets%2Fnationallifetablesunitedking domreferencetables%2Fcurrent/nationallifetables3yruk.xlsx.

112. В связи с искажениями, вызванными пандемией COVID-19, 2020-й – последний год, для которого во время написания книги существовали корректные таблицы ожидаемой продолжительности жизни граждан США. См. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2019—Special Aggregates, Online Edition, rev. 1. (United Nations, 2019), https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/3_Indicators%20(Special%20Aggregates)/EXCEL_FILES/5_Geographical/Mortality/WPP2019_SA5_MORT_F16_1_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_BY_AGE_BOTH_SEXES.XLSX.

113. Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty”, Our World in Data, March 27, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty; François Bourguignon and Christian Morrisson, “Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820–1992”, American Economic Review 92, no. 4 (September 2002): 727–44, https://doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344443; PovcalNet: An Online Analysis Tool for Global Poverty Monitoring, World Bank, March 17, 2020, http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/home.aspx.

114. Понятный и убедительный иллюстрированный обзор глобального экономического развития и процессов индустриализации: Council on Foreign Relations, “Global Development Explained | World101”, CFR Education, YouTube video, June 18, 2019, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=Po0°3Gk9FPQ; “Hans Rosling’s 20 °Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes – the Joy of Stats – BBC Four”, BBC, YouTube video, November 26, 2010, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo; “The History of International Development | Max Roser | EAGxOxford 2016”, Centre for Effective Altruism, YouTube video, April 16, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbBn8OEqL4k; Max Roser, “The Short History of Global Living Conditions and Why It Matters That We Know It”, Our World in Data, accessed October 29, 2021, https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts; Bourguignon and Morrisson, “Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820–1992”.

115. Подробнее об ускоренном (и часто неуправляемом) развитии сельского хозяйства в Китае и Индии: Yi Wen, “China’s Rapid Rise: From Backward Agrarian Society to Industrial Powerhouse in Just 35 Years”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 12, 2016, https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2016/chi nas-rapid-rise-from-backward-agrarian-society-to-industrial-powerhouse-in-just-35-years; Xiao-qiang Jiao, Nyamdavaa Mongol, and Fusuo Zhang, “The Transformation of Agriculture in China: Looking Back and Looking Forward”, Journal of Integrative Agriculture 17, no. 4 (April 2018): 755–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61774-X; Amarnath Tripathi and A. R. Prasad, “Agricultural Development in India Since Independence: A Study on Progress, Performance, and Determinants”, Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets 1, no. 1 (November 2009): 63–92, https://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=jekem; M. S. Swaminathan, 50 Years of Green Revolution: An Anthology of Research Papers (Singapore: World Scientific, 2017); Francine R. Frankel, India’s Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1971).

116. World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day”.

117. World Bank, “Regional Aggregation Using 2011 PPP and $1.9/Day Poverty Line”, PovcalNet: The On-line Tool for Poverty Measurement Developed by the Development Research Group of the World Bank, September 1, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20220901035616/http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/povDuplicateWB.aspx.

118. “Regional Aggregation Using 2011 PPP”, World Bank; Eric W. Sievers, The Post-Soviet Decline of Central Asia: Sustainable Development and Comprehensive Capital (London: Routledge Curzon, 2003).

119. David Hulme, “The Making of the Millennium Development Goals: Human Development Meets Results-Based Management in an Imperfect World”, (BWPI working paper 16, Brooks World Poverty Institute, December 2007), https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/773bwpi-wp-1607.pdf.

120. Подробнее о «Целях развития тысячелетия» и их значении для общества: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 (New York: United Nations, April 2016), https://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/2015_MDG_Report/pdf/MDG%202015%20rev%20(July%201). pdf; Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Now It Is Possible to Take Stock – Did the World Achieve the Millennium Development Goals?”, Our World in Data, September 20, 2018, https://ourworldindata.org/millennium-development-goals; Charles Kenny, “MDGs to SDGs: Have We Lost the Plot?”, Center for Global Development, May 27, 2015, https://www.cgdev.org/publication/mdgs-sdgs-have-we-lost-plot.

121. World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day (2017 PPP) (% of population) – United States”, World Bank, accessed April 28, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?locations=US.

122. Emily A. Shrider et al., Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020, Current Population Reports P60–273, US Census Bureau, September 2021, 56, https://www.census.gov/con tent/dam/Census/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.pdf.

123. David R. Dickens Jr. and Christina Morales, “Income Distribution and Poverty in Nevada”, in The Social Health of Nevada: Leading Indicators and Quality of Life in the Silver State, ed. Dmitri N. Shalin (Las Vegas: UNLV Center for Democratic Culture Publications, 2006): 1–24, https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1019 &context=social_health_nevada_reports; Shrider et al., Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020, 56.

124. Shrider et al., Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020, 14, 17.

125. Подробнее о том, как определяется в США черта бедности, см. Institute for Research on Poverty, “What Are Poverty Thresholds and Poverty Guidelines?”, University of Wisconsin – Madison, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.irp.wisc.edu/resources /what-are-poverty-thresholds-and-poverty-guidelines/#:~:text=9902; Institute for Research on Poverty, “How Is Poverty Measured?”, University of Wisconsin – Madison, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.irp.wisc.edu/resources/how-is-poverty-measured.

126. John Creamer et al., US Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2021 (Washington, DC: US Government Publishing Office, September 2022), 25, https://www.census.gov /content/dam/Census/library/publications/2022/demo/p60-277.pdf.

127. Creamer et al., Poverty in the United States: 2021, 25, 36.

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129. “MIT OpenCourseWare at 20”, MIT OpenCourseWare, YouTube video, April 12, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aAEamhJHUI.

130. Creamer et al., Poverty in the United States: 2021, 25; World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day – United States”.

131. Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty – World Population Living in Extreme Poverty, World, 1820 to 2015”, Our World in Data, March 27, 2017, updated 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-in-extreme-poverty-absolute; Bourguignon and Morrisson, “Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820–1992”; World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day”; World Bank, “Regional Aggregation Using 2011 PPP and $1.9/Day Poverty Line”; World Bank, Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) (% of population) – United States”.

132. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, “HHS Poverty Guidelines for 2023”, US Department of Health and Human Services, January 19, 2023, https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines.

133. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Income per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”, получено от: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, обновлено 30 марта 2023 года, https:// fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A792RC0A052NBEA; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

134. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”; Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson, “American Incomes 1774–1860” (working paper 18396, National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2012), 33, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w18396/w18396.pdf; Alexander Klein, “New StateLevel Estimates of Personal Income in the United States, 1880–1910,” in Research in Economic History, vol. 29, ed. Christopher Hanes and Susan Wolcott (Bingley, UK: Emerald Group, 2013), 220, https://doi.org/10.1108/S0363-3268(2013)0000029008; “Consumer Price Index, 1800–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1800-.

135. Dickens and Morales, “Income Distribution and Poverty in Nevada”, 1; Creamer et al., Poverty in the United States: 2021, 25.

136. Bourguignon and Morrisson, “Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820–1992”; World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day”; World Bank Development Research Group, “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $2.15 a Day (2017 PPP) (% of population) – United States”.

137. Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, Maddison Project Database, version 2020, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, November 2, 2020, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/histori caldevelopment/maddison/data/mpd2020.xlsx; Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy: A New 2020 Update”, (working paper WP-15, Maddison Project, October 2020), https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/histo ricaldevelopment/maddison/publications/wp15.pdf; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 27, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series /A939RX0Q048SBEA; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; John J. McCusker, “Colonial Statistics”, in Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the Present, ed. Susan G. Carter et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006), V-671; Richard Sutch, “National Income and Product”, in Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the Present, ed. Susan G. Carter et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006), III-23–25; Leandro Prados de la Escosura, “Lost Decades? Economic Performance in Post-Independence Latin America”, Journal of Latin American Studies 41, no. 2 (May 2009): 279–307, https://www.jstor.org/stable/27744128; Jutta Bolt et al., “Rebasing ‘Maddison’: New Income Comparisons and the Shape of Long-Run Economic Development” (working paper 10, Maddison Project, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, 2018), https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/html_publi cations/memorandum/gd174.pdf.

138. Bolt and van Zanden, Maddison Project Database; Bolt and van Zanden, “Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA)”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”; McCusker, “Colonial Statistics”, V-671; Sutch, “National Income and Product”; Prados de la Escosura, “Lost Decades?”; Bolt et al., “Rebasing ‘Maddison’”.

139. Bolt and van Zanden, Maddison Project Database; Bolt and van Zanden, “Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Real Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA)”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”; McCusker, “Colonial Statistics”, V-671; Sutch, “National Income and Product”; Prados de la Escosura, “Lost Decades?”; Bolt et al., “Rebasing ‘Maddison’”.

140. Max Roser, “Working Hours”, Our World in Data, 2013, https://ourworldindata.org/work ing-hours; Michael Huberman and Chris Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’: Days and Hours of Work in Old and New Worlds, 1870–2000”, Explorations in Economic History 44, no. 4 (July 12, 2007): 548, https://personal.lse.ac.uk/minns/Huberman_Minns_EEH_2007.pdf; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States (AVHWPEUSA065NRUG)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 21, 2021, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG.

141. US Census Bureau, “Real Median Personal Income in the United States (MEPAINUSA672N)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 13, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

142. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”; Lindert and Williamson, “American Incomes 1774–1860”; Klein, “New State-Level Estimates of Personal Income in the United States, 1880–1910”, 220; “Consumer Price Index, 1800–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

143. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”; Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

144. Bolt and van Zanden, Maddison Project Database; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal Income (PI)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated February 24, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Hours Worked by Full-Time and Part-Time Employees (B4701C0A222NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated October 12, 2022, https://fred.stlouis fed.org/series/B4701C0A222NBEA; Stanley Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, in Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States After 1800, ed. Dorothy S. Brady (Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1966), 118, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c1567.pdf; US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1999 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 1999): 879, https://www.census.gov/prod/99pubs/99statab/sec31.pdf; Stanley Lebergott, “Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment, 1929–39 Estimating Methods”, Monthly Labor Review 67, no. 1 (July 1948): 51, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1948/article/pdf/labor-force-employment-and-unemployment-1929-39-estimating-methods.pdf; Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Level (CE16OV)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 10, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV; “Consumer Price Index, 1800–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

145. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548.

146. Коротко о том, какую роль сыграло рабочее движение в США в вопросе сокращения рабочего времени, а также ряд подробных современных материалов: “History of the 40-Hour Workweek”, CNBC Make It, YouTube video, May 3, 2017, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=BcRlq-Hrtc0; “The 40 Hour Work Week”, Prosocial Progress Foundation, YouTube video, December 3, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KtJNYZySjU; Shana Lebowitz and Marguerite Ward, “Most Americans Support Andrew Yang’s Call for a 4-Day Workweek – But Before Any Policy Changes, We Should Understand Why the 5-Day, 40-Hour Workweek Was So Revolutionary”, Business Insider, June 12, 2020, https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-the-40-hour-workweek-2015-10; George E. Barnett, “Growth of Labor Organization in the United States, 1897–1914”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 30, no. 4 (August 1916): 780–95, http://www.jstor.com/stable/1884242; Leo Wolman, The Growth of American Trade Unions, 1880–1923 (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1924).

147. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548.

148. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548.

149. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States”.

150. В этой главе мы сосредоточились на тенденции к процветанию в США и других странах-членах ОЭСР, но не потому, что нам они кажутся важнее остальных, просто они успели продвинуться дальше вдоль экспоненциальной кривой роста экономики. Вдобавок в развивающихся странах зачастую не собирается достаточно подробная статистика, что затрудняет исследование господствующих тенденций в соответствующих частях света. См. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States”; Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer, PWT 9.1: Penn World Table Version 9.1, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, September 26, 2019, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt; Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer, “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, American Economic Review 105, no. 10 (October 2015): 3150–82, http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954; “Kurzarbeit: Germany’s Short-Time Work Benefit”, International Monetary Fund, June 15, 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/11/na061120-kurzarbeit-germanys-short-time-work-benefit.

151. Подробнее о происходящих переменах и их вероятных долгосрочных последствиях: Rani Molla, “Office Work Will Never Be the Same”, Vox, May 21, 2020, https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/5/21/21234242/coronavirus-covid-19-remote-work-from-home-office-reopening; Gil Press, “The Future of Work Post-Covid-19”, Forbes, July 15, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2020/07/15/the-future-of-work-post-covid-19/#3c9ea15e4baf; Nick Routley, “6 Charts That Show What Employers and Employees Really Think About Remote Working”, World Economic Forum, June 3, 2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06 /coronavirus-covid19-remote-working-office-employees-employers; Matthew Dey et al., “Ability to Work from Home: Evidence from Two Surveys and Implications for the Labor Market in the COVID-19 Pandemic”, Monthly Labor Review (US Bureau of Labor Statistics), June 2020, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.14.

152. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States”; Feenstra, Inklaar, and Timmer, “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, 3150–82; OECD Statistics, “Average Annual Hours Actually Worked per Worker”, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, retrieved October 22, 2021, https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS.

153. International Labour Office, Marking Progress Against Child Labour: Global Estimates and Trends 2000–2012 (Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization, 2013), 16, http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_norm/@ipec/documents/publication /wcms_221513.pdf.

154. International Labour Office, Marking Progress Against Child Labour, 3; International Labour Office, Global Estimates of Child Labour: Results and Trends, 2012–2016 (Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization, 2017), 9, http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups /public/-dgreports/-dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_575499.pdf; International Labour Office and United Nations Children’s Fund, Child Labour: Global Estimates 2020, Trends and the Road Forward (Geneva, Switzerland: ILO and UNICEF, 2021), 23, https:// www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-ed_norm/-ipec/documents/publication/wcms_797515.pdf; US Department of Labor, 2021 Findings on the Worst Forms of Child Labor (Washington, DC: US Department of Labor, 2022), https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ILAB/child_labor_reports/tda2021/2021_TDA_Big_Book.pdf.

155. International Labour Office, Marking Progress Against Child Labour, 3; International Labour Office, Global Estimates of Child Labour: Results and Trends, 2012–2016, 9; International Labour Office and United Nations Children’s Fund, Child Labour: Global Estimates 2020, Trends and the Road Forward, 23, 82.

156. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide: Executive Summary (Vienna: United Nations, July 2019), 26–28, https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/gsh/Booklet1.pdf.

157. В 1325 году в Англии на 100 000 человек приходилось 21,4 убийства в год. К 1575 году этот показатель снизился до 5,2, к 1675 году – до 3,5, а к 1862 году – до 1,6 и с тех пор остается ниже этого уровня. В Италии этот показатель составлял 71,7 в 1375 году, 7,0 в 1862 году и 0,9 в 2010 году. См. Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie, “Homicides”, Our World in Data, December 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/homicides; Manuel Eisner, “From Swords to Words: Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control Predict Long-Term Variation in Levels of Homicide?”, Crime and Justice 43, no. 1 (September 2014): 80–81, https://doi.org/10.1086/677662; UN Office on Drugs and Crime, “Intentional Homicides (per 100,000 People) – France, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, accessed March 25, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2020&locations= FR-NL-SE-DE-CH-IT-GB-ES&start=2020&view=bar; “Appendix Tables: Homicide in England and Wales”, UK Office for National Statistics, February 9, 2023, https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/appendixtables homicideinenglandandwales/current/homicideyemarch22appendixtables.xlsx.

158. Этот график в основном строится на массиве данных под названием «Статистика убийств в Западной Европе с 1250 по 2017 год» проекта «Наш мир в данных». Однако в последней версии этого датасета период с 1950-го построен на информации от Всемирной организации здравоохранения, собранной в медицинских целях и существенно недооценивающей уровень убийств по сравнению со статистикой правоохранительной системы. Поэтому данные ВОЗ сложно напрямую сравнивать с информацией за прошлые периоды, в основном полученной из архивных исследований Эйснера (2014). Вместо этого за период с 1990-го использована информация из базы данных по международному статистическому учету убийств, созданной Управлением ООН. В период 2019–2021 гг. отчетный год в Великобритании начинался с апреля и заканчивался в марте, поэтому были вычислены взвешенные средние, чтобы сопоставить информацию за эти годы с данными за все остальные периоды, собиравшимися с января по декабрь. См. Roser and Ritchie, “Homicides”; Eisner, “From Swords to Words”, 80–81; UN Office on Drugs and Crime, “Intentional Homicides (per 100,000 People) – France, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain”; “Appendix Tables: Homicide in England and Wales”, UK Office for National Statistics.

159. Alexia Cooper and Erica L. Smith, Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980–2008 (Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, November 2011), 2, https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf; “Crime in the United States: By Volume and Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants, 1999–2018”, Federal Bureau of Investigation, accessed April 28, 2023, https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018 /topic-pages/tables/table-1; Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime Data Explorer: Expanded Homicide Offense Counts in the United States”, US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, accessed April 28, 2023, https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST /webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr; Emily J. Hanson, “Violent Crime Trends, 1990–2021”, Congressional Research Service report IF12281, December 12, 2022, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF12281.pdf; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230R-C0A052NBEA)”.

160. Подробнее о влиянии сухого закона на уровень преступности и насилия в США: “How Prohibition Created the Mafia”, History, YouTube video, February 21, 2019, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=N-K60XXaPKw; Dave Roos, “How Prohibition Put the ‘Organized’ in Organized Crime”, History.com, February 22, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/prohibition-organized-crime-al-capone; Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Key Facts at a Glance: Homicide Rate Trends”, US Department of Justice, accessed September 29, 2006, https:// web.archive.org/web/20060929061431/http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/hmrt tab.htm.

161. Подробнее о борьбе с наркотиками в США и ее влиянии на уровень насилия: “Why The War on Drugs Is a Huge Failure”, Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell, YouTube video, March 1, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= wJUXLqNHCaI; German Lopez, “The War on Drugs, Explained”, Vox, May 8, 2016, https://www.vox.com/2016/5/8/18089368/war-on-drugs-marijuana-cocaine-heroin-meth; PBS, “Thirty Years of America’s Drug War: A Chronology”, Frontline, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/cron; Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Key Facts at a Glance: Homicide Rate Trends”.

162. Подробнее о теории разбитых окон и профилактике преступлений: George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson, “Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety”, Atlantic, March 1982, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows /304465/?single_page=true; “Broken Windows Policing”, Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy, accessed April 28, 2023, https://cebcp.org/evidence-based-policing/what-works-in-policing/research-evidence-review/broken-windows-policing; Shankar Vedantam et al., “How a Theory of Crime and Policing Was Born, and Went Terribly Wrong”, NPR, November 1, 2016, https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/500104506/broken-windows-policing-and-the-origins-of-stop-and-frisk-and-how-it-went-wrong; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Proactive Policing: Effects on Crime and Communities (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2018), https://doi.org/10.17226/24928; Kevin Strom, Research on the Impact of Technology on Policing Strategy in the 21st Century, Final Report (Research Triangle Park, NC: RTI International, 2017), https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/251140.pdf.

163. “Lead for Life – The History of Leaded Gasoline – An Excerpt”, from Late Lessons from Early Warnings, Jakob Gottschau, YouTube video, September 16, 2013, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=pqg9jH1xwjI; Jennifer L. Doleac, “New Evidence That Lead Exposure Increases Crime”, Brookings Institution, June 1, 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/blog /up-front/2017/06/01/new-evidence-that-lead-exposure-increases-crime.

164. Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Key Facts at a Glance: Homicide Rate Trends”; James Alan Fox and Marianne W. Zawitz, Homicide Trends in the United States (Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2010), 9–10, https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htius.pdf; “Crime in the United States: By Volume and Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants, 1999–2018”, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime Data Explorer: Expanded Homicide Offense Counts in the United States”; Hanson, “Violent Crime Trends, 1990–2021”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”.

165. Ann L. Pastore and Kathleen Maguire, eds., Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics (Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2005), 278–79, https:// www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/208756NCJRS.pdf; “Crime in the United States: By Volume and Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants, 1999–2018”, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime Data Explorer: Expanded Homicide Offense Counts in the United States”; Hanson, “Violent Crime Trends, 1990–2021”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”.

166. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: Penguin, 2011), 60–91.

167. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature, 60.

168. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature, 49, 53, 63–64.

169. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature, 52–53.

170. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature, 193–98.

171. Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature, 175–77, 580–92; Peter Singer, The Expanding Circle: Ethics, Evolution, and Moral Progress (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981).

172. Подробные обзоры результатов, полученных благодаря ИИ в задачах поиска новых материалов для солнечной энергетики и аккумуляторов: Elizabeth Montalbano, “AI Enables Design of Spray-on Coating That Can Generate Solar Energy”, Design News, December 26, 2019, https://www.designnews.com/materials-assembly/ai-enables-design-spray-coating-can-generate-solar-energy; Shinji Nagasawa, Eman Al-Naamani, and Akinori Saeki, “Computer-Aided Screening of Conjugated Polymers for Organic Solar Cell: Classification by Random Forest”, Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters 9, no. 10 (May 7, 2018): 2639–46, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpclett.8b00635; Geun Ho Gu et al., “Machine Learning for Renewable Energy Materials”, Journal of Materials Chemistry A 7, no. 29 (April 30, 2019): 17096–117, https://doi.org/10.1039/C9TA02356A; Ziyi Luo et al., “A Survey of Artificial Intelligence Techniques Applied in Energy Storage Materials R&D”, Frontiers in Energy Research 8, no. 116 (July 3, 2020), https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2020.00116; An Chen, Xu Zhang, and Zhen Zhou, “Machine Learning: Accelerating Materials Development for Energy Storage and Conversion”, InfoMat 2, no. 3 (February 23, 2020): 553–76, https://doi.org/10.1002/inf2.12094; Xinyi Yang et al., “Development Status and Prospects of Artificial Intelligence in the Field of Energy Conversion Materials”, Frontiers in Energy Research 8, no. 167 (July 31, 2020), https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2020.00167; Teng Zhou, Zhen Song, and Kai Sundmacher, “Big Data Creates New Opportunities for Materials Research: A Review on Methods and Applications of Machine Learning for Materials Design”, Engineering 5, no. 6 (December 2019): 1017–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2019.02.011.

173. Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Renewable Energy”, Our World in Data, последняя проверка доступности 28 апреля 2023 года, https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy; International Energy Agency Statistics/OECD, “Electricity Production from Renewable Sources, Excluding Hydroelectric (% of Total)”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, 2014, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.RNWX.ZS; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021 (London: BP, 2021), 64–65, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf; BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy – All Data, 1965–2021”, from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 (London: BP, 2022), https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-all-data.xlsx.

174. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 (London: BP, 2022): 45, 51, https://www.bp.com /content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, 64–65; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020 (London: BP, 2020), 52–53, 59, 61, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf; BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy – All Data, 1965–2021”; International Energy Agency Statistics/OECD, “Electric Power Consumption (kWh Per Capita)”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, 2014, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “Total Population – Both Sexes”, World Population Prospects 2019, online ed. rev. 1 (New York: United Nations, 2019), https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/1_Indicators%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_Population/WPP2019_POP_F01_1_TOTAL_POPULATION_BOTH_SEXES.xlsx; Ritchie and Roser, “Renewable Energy”.

175. “Solar (Photovoltaic) Panel Prices vs. Cumulative Capacity”, Our World in Data, последняя проверка доступности 25 марта 2023 года, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity; Gregory F. Nemet, “Interim Monitoring of Cost Dynamics for Publicly Supported Energy Technologies”, Energy Policy 37, no. 3 (March 2009): 825–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.031; J. Doyne Farmer and François Lafond, “How Predictable Is Technological Progress?”, Research Policy 45, no. 3 (April 2016): 647–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001; “IRENASTAT Online Data Query Tool”, International Renewable Energy Agency, accessed March 25, 2023, https://www.irena.org/Data/Downloads/IRE NASTAT; IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021 (Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2022), https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Jul/IRENA_Power_Generation_Costs_2021.pdf?rev=34c22a4b244d434da0accde7de7c73d8; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”,

176. Molly Cox, “Key 2020 US Solar PV Cost Trends and a Look Ahead”, Greentech Media, December 17, 2020, https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/key-2020-us-solar-pv-cost-trends-and-a-look-ahead.

177. “Solar (Photovoltaic) Panel Prices vs. Cumulative Capacity”, Our World in Data; Nemet, “Interim Monitoring of Cost Dynamics for Publicly Supported Energy Technologies”, 825–35; Farmer and Lafond, “How Predictable Is Technological Progress?”; “IRENA-STAT Online Data Query Tool”; IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021; François Lafond et al., “How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress? A Method for Making Distributional Forecasts”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 128 (March 2018): 104–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.11.001; Sandra Enkhardt, “Global Solar Capacity Additions Hit 268 GW in 2022, Says BNEF”, PV Magazine, December 23, 2022, https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/23/global-solar-capacity-additions-hit-268-gw-in-2022-says-bnef.

178. “Solar (Photovoltaic) Panel Prices vs. Cumulative Capacity”, Our World in Data; Nemet, “Interim Monitoring of Cost Dynamics for Publicly Supported Energy Technologies”, 825–35; Farmer and Lafond, “How Predictable Is Technological Progress?”; “IRENASTAT Online Data Query Tool”; IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021; Lafond et al., “How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress?”, 104–17; Enkhardt, “Global Solar Capacity Additions Hit 268 GW in 2022, Says BNEF”.

179. Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Renewable Energy – Renewable Energy Generation, World”, Our World in Data, accessed April 28, 2023, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/modern-renewable-energy-consumption?country=~OWID_WRL; Ritchie and Roser, “Renewable Energy – Solar Power Generation”; “World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1971–2017”, International Energy Agency, November 26, 2019, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-electricity-generation-by-fuel-1971-2017; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022, 45, 51; BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy – All Data, 1965–2021”; “Share of Low-Carbon Sources and Coal in World Electricity Generation, 1971–2021”, International Energy Agency, April 19, 2021, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics /charts/share-of-low-carbon-sources-and-coal-in-world-electricity-generation-1971-2021.

180. Ryan Wiser et al., “Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition”, US Department of Energy, August 2022, 50, https://doi.org/10.2172/1882594; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

181. Our World in Data, “Wind Power Generation”, Our World in Data, accessed March 25, 2023, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-generation?tab=chart; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022; “Yearly Electricity Data”, Ember, March 28, 2023, https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data; Charles Moore, “European Electricity Review 2022”, Ember, February 1, 2022, https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022.

182. “Renewable Energy Generation, World”, Our World in Data; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022.

183. “Renewable Energy Generation, World”, Our World in Data; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022, 45, 51; “World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1971–2017”, International Energy Agency.

184. Подробнее о Великой хартии вольностей и ее роли в истории Америки: “800 Years of Magna Carta”, British Library, YouTube video, March 10, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ7vUkbtlQA; Nicholas Vincent, “Consequences of Magna Carta”, British Library, March 13, 2015, https://www.bl.uk/magna-carta/articles/con sequences-of-magna-carta; Dave Roos, “How Did Magna Carta Influence the U.S. Constitution?”, History.com, September 30, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/magna-carta-influence-us-constitution-bill-of-rights.

185. Подробнее об изобретении печатного станка Гутенберга и его влиянии на европейскую цивилизацию: Dave Roos, “7 Ways the Printing Press Changed the World”, History.com, September 3, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/printing-press-renaissance; Jeremiah Dittmar, “Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of the Printing Press”, VoxEU, February 11, 2011, https://voxeu.org/article/information-technology-and-economic-change-impact-printing-press; Patrick McGrady, “The Medieval Invention That Changed the Course of History: The Machine That Made Us”, Timeline – World History Documentaries, YouTube video, August 25, 2018, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=uQ88yC35NjI; Jeremiah Dittmar and Skipper Seabold, “Gutenberg’s Moving Type Propelled Europe Towards the Scientific Revolution”, LSE Business Review, March 19, 2019, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2019/03/19/gutenbergs-moving-type-propelled-europe-towards-the-scientific-revolution.

186. Отличный обзор того, как был основан и развивался английский парламент: Gwilym Dodd, “The Birth of Parliament”, BBC, February 17, 2011, https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/middle_ages/birth_of_parliament_01.shtml.

187. Ряд источников по гражданской войне в Англии и английском Билле о правах 1689 года: John Green, “English Civil War: Crash Course European History #14”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, August 6, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyk3bI_Y68Y; Avalon Project at Yale Law School, “English Bill of Rights 1689”, Lillian Goldman Law Library, accessed April 28, 2023, https://avalon.law.yale.edu/17th_century/england.asp; Geoffrey Lock, “The 1689 Bill of Rights”, Political Studies 37, no. 4 (December 1, 1989), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467–9248.1989.tb00288.x; Peter Ackroyd, Civil War: The History of England, vol. 3 (New York: St. Martin’s, 2014).

188. Neil Johnston, “The History of the Parliamentary Franchise” (research paper 13/14, UK House of Commons Library, March 1, 2013), http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk /documents/RP13-14/RP13-14.pdf; Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Literacy”; Pamuk and van Zanden, “Standards of Living”, 229.

189. Dalibor Rohac, “Mechanism Design in the Venetian Republic”, Cato Institute, July 17, 2013, https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/mechanism-design-venetian-republic; Thomas F. Madden, Venice: A New History (New York: Penguin, 2012).

190. Anna Grześkowiak-Krwawicz, Queen Liberty: The Concept of Freedom in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (Leiden, Netherlands: Brill, 2012).

191. Steve Umhoefer, “Mark Pocan Says Less than 25 Percent of Population Could Vote When Constitution Was Written”, Politifact, April 16, 2015, https://www.politifact.com/fact checks/2015/apr/16/mark-pocan/mark-pocan-says-less-25-percent-population-could-v.

192. Информация о борьбе за избирательные права в Америке, краткая и более подробная: “Who Voted in Early America?”, Constitutional Rights Foundation, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.crf-usa.org/bill-of-rights-in-action/bria-8-1-b-who-voted-in-early-america #.UW36ebWsiSo; Donald Ratcliffe, “The Right to Vote and the Rise of Democracy, 1787–1828”, Journal of the Early Republic 33, no. 2 (Summer 2013): 219–54, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24768843.

193. Подробнее о либеральных движениях, которые расцветали и терпели неудачу в Европе в середине XIX века: John Green, “Revolutions of 1848: Crash Course European History #26”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, November 19, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXTaP1BD1YY; “Alexander II – History of Russia in 100 Minutes (Part 17 of 36)”, Smart History of Russia, YouTube video, July 21, 2017, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=cqGBRn7oBEg; “Alexander III – History of Russia in 100 Minutes (Part 18 of 36)”, Smart History of Russia, YouTube video, July 21, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGCzmjwfSSs; Mike Rapport, 1848: Year of Revolution (New York: Basic Books, 2009); Paul Bushkovitch, A Concise History of Russia (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011).

194. “People Living in Democracies and Autocracies, World”, Our World in Data, accessed March 29, 2023, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autoc racies?country=~OWID_WRL; “The V-Dem Dataset (v13)”, V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy), accessed March 25, 2023, https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset; Bastian Herre, “Scripts and Datasets on Democracy”, GitHub, accessed March 25, 2023, https://github.com/owid/notebooks/tree/main/BastianHerre/democracy; Anna Lührmann et al., “Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes”, Politics and Governance 6, no. 1 (March 19, 2018): 60–77, https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214.

195. “People Living in Democracies and Autocracies, World”, Our World in Data; “The V-Dem Dataset (v13)”, V-Dem; Lührmann et al., “Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues”.

196. “People Living in Democracies and Autocracies, World”, Our World in Data; “The V-Dem Dataset (v13)”, V-Dem; Herre, “Scripts and Datasets on Democracy”; Lührmann et al., “Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues”.

197. “People Living in Democracies and Autocracies, World”, Our World in Data; “The V-Dem Dataset (v13)”, V-Dem; Herre, “Scripts and Datasets on Democracy”; Lührmann et al., “Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues”.

198. “People Living in Democracies and Autocracies, World”, Our World in Data; “The V-Dem Dataset (v13)”, V-Dem; Herre, “Scripts and Datasets on Democracy”; Lührmann et al., “Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues”.

199. Bradley Honigberg, “The Existential Threat of AI-Enhanced Disinformation Operations”, Just Security, July 8, 2022, https://www.justsecurity.org/82246/the-existential-threat-of-ai-enhanced-disinformation-operations; Tiffany Hsu and Stuart A. Thompson, “Disinformation Researchers Raise Alarms About A.I. Chatbots”, New York Times, February 13, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/technology/ai-chatbots-disinformation.html.

200. Этот график построен на данных из двух источников. Сведения от «Нашего мира в данных» покрывают очень большой период, с 1800-го по 2022-й. Они касаются преимущественно уровня авторитаризма в обществе, который оценивается порой весьма приблизительно, особенно в период до Второй мировой войны. В то же время Агентство экономической разведки устанавливает, является ли страна демократической, отталкиваясь от конкретных факторов, таких как доля политически активного населения и наличие гражданских свобод. Однако эти данные доступны только начиная с 2006 года. Поскольку каждый из этих наборов данных собран на основании своей методики и они почти несопоставимы между собой даже на общем временном промежутке, было бы неправильно объединять их в один пакет. Мы приводим их по отдельности: информация от НМД демонстрирует долгосрочный тренд, а данные АЭР рисуют подробную картину демократизации мира в последние годы. Заметим, что падение общего уровня демократичности с 2015 года обусловлено в основном процессами, происходящими в Индии, которая с недавних пор стала считаться «электоральной автократией». См. “People Living in Democracies and Autocracies, World”, Our World in Data; “The V-Dem Dataset (v13)”, V-Dem; Herre, “Scripts and Datasets on Democracy”; Lührmann et al., “Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues”; Laza Kekic, “The World in 2007: The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Index of Democracy”, Economist, November 15, 2006, 6, https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/DEMOCRACY_INDEX _2007_v3.pdf; The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Index of Democracy 2008 (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2008), 2, https://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy%20Index%202008.pdf; Democracy Index 2010: Democracy in Retreat (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010), 1, https://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf; Democracy Index 2011: Democracy Under Stress (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2011), 2, https:// www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=DemocracyIndex2011; Democracy Index 2012: Democracy at a Standstill (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012), 2, https://web.archive.org/web/20170320185156/http://pages.eiu.com/rs/eiu2/images/Democracy-Index-2012.pdf; Democracy Index 2013: Democracy in Limbo (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2013), 2, https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=Democracy0814; Democracy Index 2014: Democracy and Its Discontents (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2014), 2, https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=Democracy0115; Democracy Index 2015: Democracy in an Age of Anxiety (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2015), 1, https://web.archive.org/web/20160305143559/http://www.yabiladi.com/img/content/EIU-Democracy-Index-2015.pdf; Democracy Index 2016: Revenge of the “Deplorables”, (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2016), 2, https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=DemocracyIndex2016; Democracy Index 2017: Free Speech Under Attack (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2017), 2, https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=DemocracyIndex2017; Democracy Index 2018: Me Too? (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2018), 2, https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracy2018; Democracy Index 2019: A Year of Democratic Setbacks and Popular Protest (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2019), 3, https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019; Democracy Index 2020: In Sickness and in Health? (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2020), 3, https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/democracy-index-2020.pdf; Democracy Index 2021: The China Challenge (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2020), 4, https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2021; Democracy Index 2022: Frontline Democracy and the Battle for Ukraine (London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2020), 3, https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022.

201. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

202. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

203. Joshua Ho and Andrei Frumusanu, “Understanding Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 810: Performance Review”, Anandtech, February 12, 2015, https://www.anandtech.com/show/8933/snapdragon-810-performance-preview/5. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

204. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

205. Paul E. Ceruzzi, A History of Modern Computing, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990), 73, https://www.google.com/books/edition/A_History_of_Modern_Computing/x1 YESXanrgQC; “Reference / FAQ / Products and Services”, IBM, April 28, 2023, https://www.ibm.com/ibm/history/reference/faq_0000000011.html; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

206. Kyle Wiggers, “Apple Unveils the A16 Bionic, Its Most Powerful Mobile Chip Yet”, TechCrunch, September 7, 2022, https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/07/apple-unveils-new-mobile-chips-including-the-a16-bionic; Nick Guy and Roderick Scott, “Which iPhone Should I Buy?”, New York Times, October 28, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/the-iphone-is-our-favorite-smartphone.

207. Gordon Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”, Electronics 38, no. 8 (April 19, 1965), https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/2017/03/102770822-05-01-acc.pdf; “1965: ‘Moore’s Law’ Predicts the Future of Integrated Circuits”, Computer History Museum, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.computerhistory.org/siliconengine/moores-law-predicts-the-future-of-integrated-circuits; Fernando J. Corbató et al., The Compatible Time-Sharing System: A Programmer’s Guide (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990), http://www.bitsavers.org/pdf/mit/ctss/CTSS_ProgrammersGuide.pdf.

208. Robert W. Keyes, “Physics of Digital Devices”, Reviews of Modern Physics 61, no. 2 (April 1, 1989): 279–98, https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.61.279.

209. “Wikipedia: Size Comparisons”, Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia, Wikimedia Foundation, accessed April 28, 2023, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia: Size_comparisons# Wikipedia.

210. Подробнее о том, как производство различных товаров превращается в информационные технологии, мы поговорим в главе 6.

211. K. Eric Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013), 168–72.

212. Подробнее об искусственном мясе и о том, какое влияние на окружающую среду оказывает мясное скотоводство: see “The Meat of the Future: How Lab-Grown Meat Is Made”, Eater, YouTube video, October 2, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u468xY1T8fw; “Inside the Quest to Make Lab Grown Meat”, Wired, YouTube video, February 16, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO9SS1NS6MM; Mark Post, “Cultured Beef for Food-Security and the Environment: Mark Post at TEDxMaastricht”, TEDx Talks, YouTube video, May 11, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FITvEUSJ8TM; Julian Huguet, “This Breakthrough in Lab-Grown Meat Could Make It Look Like Real Flesh”, Seeker, YouTube video, November 14, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lUuDi_s_Zo; “How Close Are We to Affordable Lab-Grown Meat?”, PBS Terra, YouTube video, August 25, 2022, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-weFARkGi4; “Can Lab-Grown Steak be the Future of Meat? | Big Business | Business Insider”, Insider Business, YouTube video, July 17, 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQejwvnog0M; Leah Douglas, “Lab-Grown Meat Moves Closer to American Dinner Plates”, Reuters, January 23, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/lab-grown-meat-moves-closer-american-dinner-plates-2023-01-23; “Yearly Number of Animals Slaughtered for Meat, World, 1961 to 2020”, Our World in Data, accessed March 25, 2023, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/animals-slaughtered-for-meat; “Global Meat Production, 1961 to 2020”, Our World in Data, accessed March 25, 2023, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production; FAOSTAT, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, accessed March 25, 2023, http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data; Xiaoming Xu et al., “Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Animal-Based Foods Are Twice Those of Plant-Based Foods”, Nature Food 2 (September 13, 2021): 724–32, https://www.fao.org/3/cb7033en /cb7033en.pdf.

213. “GLEAM v3.0 Dashboard – Emissions – Global Emissions from Livestock in 2015”, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, accessed March 29, 2023, https://foodandagricultureorganization.shinyapps.io/GLEAMV3_Public.

214. Подробнее о концепции метавселенной: John Herrman and Kellen Browning, “Are We in the Metaverse Yet?”, New York Times, July 10, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/10/style/metaverse-virtual-worlds.html; Rabindra Ratan and Yiming Lei, “The Metaverse: From Science Fiction to Virtual Reality”, Big Think, August 13, 2021, https://bigthink.com/the-future/metaverse.

215. Hannah Ritchie, “Half of the World’s Habitable Land Is Used for Agriculture”, Our World in Data, November 11, 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/global-land-for-agriculture; Erle C. Ellis et al., “Anthropogenic Transformation of the Biomes, 1700 to 2000, Global Ecology and Biogeography 19, no. 5 (September 2010): 589–606, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466–8238.2010.00540.x; “Food and Agriculture Data”, FAOSTAT, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, accessed April 28, 2023, http://www.fao.org/faostat /en/#home.

216. Ritchie, “Half of the World’s Habitable Land Is Used for Agriculture”; Ellis et al., “Anthropogenic Transformation of the Biomes”; “Food and Agriculture Data”, FAOSTAT.

217. Jackson Burke, “As Working from Home Becomes More Widespread, Many Say They Don’t Want to Go Back”, CNBC, April 24, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/asworking-from-home-becomes-more-widespread-many-say-they-dont-want-to-go-back.html.

218. Подробнее о том, как с помощью наноматериалов удается добиться повышенного КПД солнечных панелей: Maren Hunsberger, “Carbon Nanotubes Might Be the Secret Boost Solar Energy Has Been Looking For”, Seeker, YouTube video, September 16, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwiDGxkD9_c; Matt Ferrell, “How Carbon Nanotubes Might Boost Solar Energy – Explained”, Undecided with Matt Ferrell, YouTube video, July 7, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnZpaunXhGc; David Grossman, “Carbon Nanotubes Could Increase Solar Efficiency to 80 Percent”, Popular Mechanics, July 25, 2019, https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a28506867/carbon-nanotubes-solar-efficiency; Nasim Tavakoli and Esther Alarcon-Llado, “Combining 1D and 2D Waveguiding in an Ultrathin GaAs NW/Si Tandem Solar Cell”, Optics Express 27, no. 12 (June 10, 2019): A909–A923, https://doi.org/10.1364/OE.27.00A909.

219. Mark Hutchins, “A Quantum Dot Solar Cell with 16.6 % Efficiency”, PV Magazine, February 19, 2020, https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/02/19/a-quantum-dot-solar-cell-with-16-6-efficiency; C. Jackson Stolle, Taylor B. Harvey, and Brian A. Korgel, “Nanocrystal Photovoltaics: A Review of Recent Progress”, Current Opinion in Chemical Engineering 2, no. 2 (May 2013): 160–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coche.2013.03.001.

220. Qiulin Tan et al., “Nano-Fabrication Methods and Novel Applications of Black Silicon”, Sensors and Actuators A: Physical 295 (August 15, 2019): 560–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sna.2019.04.044.

221. Stephen Y. Chou and Wei Ding, “Ultrathin, High-Efficiency, Broad-Band, Omni-Acceptance, Organic Solar Cells Enhanced by Plasmonic Cavity with Subwavelength Hole Array”, Optics Express 21, no. S1 (January 14, 2013): A60–A76, https://doi.org/10.1364/OE.21.000A60.

222. David L. Chandler, “Solar Power Heads in a New Direction: Thinner”, MIT News, June 26, 2013, http://news.mit.edu/2013/thinner-solar-panels-0626; Marco Bernardi, Maurizia Palummo, and Jeffrey C. Grossman, “Extraordinary Sunlight Absorption and One Nanometer Thick Photovoltaics Using Two-Dimensional Monolayer Materials”, Nano Letters 13, no. 8 (June 10, 2013): 3664–70, https://doi.org/10.1021/nl401544y.

223. Andy Extance, “The Dawn of Solar Windows”, IEEE Spectrum, January 24, 2018, https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/the-dawn-of-solar-windows; Glenn McDonald, “This Liquid Coating Turns Windows Into Solar Panels”, Seeker, September 1, 2017, https://www.seeker.com/earth/energy/clear-liquid-coating-turns-windows-into-solar-panels.

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228. Alexis De Vos, “Detailed Balance Limit of the Efficiency of Tandem Solar Cells”, Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics 13, no. 5 (1980): 845, https://doi.org/10.1088/0022-3727/13/5 /018; “Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart”, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html.

229. Marcelo De Lellis, “The Betz Limit Applied to Airborne Wind Energy”, Renewable Energy 127 (November 2018): 32–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.034.

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231. Science on a Sphere, “Energy on a Sphere”, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, последняя проверка доступности 30 мая 2021 года, http://web.archive.org/web/20210530160109/https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/energy-on-a-sphere.

232. Jeff Tsao, Nate Lewis, and George Crabtree, “Solar FAQs” (working draft, US Department of Energy, April 20, 2006), 9–12, https://web.archive.org/web/20200424084337/https://www.sandia.gov/~jytsao/Solar%20FAQs.pdf.

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235. Will de Freitas, “Could the Sahara Turn Africa into a Solar Superpower?”, World Economic Forum, January 17, 2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/solar-panels-sahara-desert-renewable-energy.

236. Общий обзор современных технологий аккумулирования энергии: “Fact Sheet | Energy Storage (2019)”, Environmental and Energy Study Institute, February 22, 2019, https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019.

237. Andy Colthorpe, “Behind the Numbers: The Rapidly Falling LCOE of Battery Storage”, Energy Storage News, May 6, 2020, https://www.energy-storage.news/behind-the-numbers-the-rapidly-falling-lcoe-of-battery-storage; “Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2022”, US Energy Information Administration, March 2022, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf.

238. Подробнее о быстром росте емкостей аккумуляторов на рынке США: “Battery Storage in the United States: An Update on Market Trends”, US Energy Information Administration, August 16, 2021, https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage; Energy Storage Grand Challenge: Energy Storage Market Report, US Department of Energy technical report DOE/GO-102020-5497 (December 2020), https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2020/12/f81/Energy%20Storage%20Market%20Report%202020_0.pdf.

239. “Lazard ’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 7.0”, Lazard, 2021, 6, https://web.archive.org/web/20220729095608/https://www.lazard.com/media/451882/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-70-vf.pdf; “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 6.0”, Lazard, 2020, 6, https://web.archive.org/web/20221006123556/https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-60-vf2.pdf; “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 5.0”, Lazard, 2019, 4, https://web.archive.org/web/20221104121921/https://www.lazard.com/media/451087/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-50-vf.pdf; “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 4.0”, Lazard, 2018, 11, https://www.lazard.com/media/sckbar5m/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-40-vfinal.pdf; “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 3.0”, Lazard, 2017, 12, https://www.scribd.com/document/413797533/Lazard-Levelized-Cost-of-Storage-Version-30; “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 2.0”, Lazard, 2016, 11, https://web.archive.org/web/20221104121905/https://www.lazard.com/media/438042/lazard-levelized-cost-of-storage-v20.pdf; “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis – Version 1.0”, Lazard, 2015, 9, https://web.archive.org/web/20221105052132/https://www.lazard.com/media/2391/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-analysis-10.pdf; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers”.

240. US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual 2021 (Washington, DC: US Department of Energy, November 2022), 64, https://web.archive.org/web/20230201194905/http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/pdf/epa.pdf; US Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual 2020 (Washington, DC: US Department of Energy, October 2021), 64, https://web.archive.org/web/20220301172156/http://www.eia.gov/electricity /annual/pdf/epa.pdf.

241. “Key Facts from JMP 2015 Report”, World Health Organization, 2015, https://web.archive.org/web/20211209095710/https://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/publications/JMP-2015-keyfacts-en-rev.pdf.

242. “Key Facts from JMP 2015 Report”, World Health Organization, 2015; Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2020, 7–8.

243. Последний год, за который доступна качественная статистика, – 2019-й, вероятнее всего, из-за искажений статистики в области здравоохранения, вызванных пандемией COVID-19. См. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, “GBD Results Tool”, Global Heath Data Exchange, последняя проверка доступности 28 апреля 2023 года, http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool; World Health Organization, “Diarrhoeal Disease”, World Health Organization, May 2, 2017, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diarrhoeal-disease.

244. Подробнее об этих технологиях, в том числе забавный ролик, в котором Билл Гейтс и Джимми Фэллон пьют канализационную воду, очищенную системой Janicki Omniprocessor: Bill Gates, “Janicki Omniprocessor”, GatesNotes, YouTube video, January 5, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVzppWSIFU0; “Bill Gates and Jimmy Drink Poop Water”, The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, YouTube video, January 22, 2015, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=FHgsL0dpQ-U; Stephen Beacham, “How the LifeStraw Is Eradicating an Ancient Disease”, CNET, April 9, 2020, https://www.cnet.com/news/how-the-lifestraw-is-eradicating-an-ancient-disease; “Lifestraw Challenge: Drinking Pee, Backwash & More!”, Vat19, YouTube video, June 2, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mkUTSGCF3I; Rebecca Paul, “6 Water-purifying Devices for Clean Drinking Water in the Developing World”, Inhabitat, November 8, 2013, https://inhabitat.com/6-water-purifying-devices-for-clean-drinking-water-in-the-developing-world.

245. См. “Roving Blue O-Pen Silver Advanced Portable Water Purification Device”, Roving Blue Inc., YouTube video, November 5, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeTp1iKQW28; Laurel Wilson, “Church Volunteers Install Water Systems in Other Countries”, Bowling Green Daily News, December 27, 2014, https://www.bgdailynews.com/news/church-volunteers-install-water-systems-in-other-countries/article_969f45ad-7694-54af-8cb3-155e67ca54ad.html.

246. Aimee M. Gall et al., “Waterborne Viruses: A Barrier to Safe Drinking Water”, PLoS Pathogens 11, no. 6, article e1004867 (June 25, 2015), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004867.

247. “Microfiber Matters”, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, February 4, 2019, https://www.pca.state.mn.us/featured/microfiber-matters.

248. Подробнее о технологии «Праща» (Slingshot) изобретателя Дина Кеймена: “Slingshot Water Purifier”, Atlas Initiative Group, YouTube video, February 11, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk_T9MiZKRs; Tom Foster, “Pure Genius: How Dean Kamen’s Invention Could Bring Clean Water to Millions”, Popular Science, June 16, 2014, https://www.popsci.com/article/science/pure-genius-how-dean-kamens-invention-could-bring-clean-water-millions.

249. Длинное, но очень интересное видео о том, как работает двигатель Стирлинга и в чем его преимущества: “Stirling Engines – The Power of the Future?”, Lindybeige, YouTube video, November 28, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGlDsFAOWXc.

250. Больше научных данных о зарождении сельского хозяйства: Rhitu Chatterjee, “Where Did Agriculture Begin? Oh Boy, It’s Complicated”, NPR, July 15, 2016, https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2016/07/15/485722228/where-did-agriculture-begin-oh-boy-its-complicated; Ainit Snir et al., “The Origin of Cultivation and Proto-Weeds, Long Before Neolithic Farming”, PLOS One 10, no. 7 (July 22, 2015), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131422.

251. David A. Pietz, Dorothy Zeisler-Vralsted, Water and Human Societies (Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2021), 55–57.

252. National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Corn, Grain – Yield, Measured in Bu / Acre”, Quick Stats, US Department of Agriculture, accessed April 28, 2023, https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/FBDE769A-0982-37DB-BA6D-A312ABDAA2B6; National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Corn and Soybean Production Down in 2022, USDA Reports Corn Stocks Down, Soybean Stocks Down from Year Earlier Winter Wheat Seedings Up for 2023”, US Department of Agriculture, January 12, 2023, https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2023/01-12-2023.php.

253. Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Crop Yields”, Our World in Data, updated September 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields; Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Land Use”, Our World in Data, September 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/land-use; “Food and Agriculture Data”, FAOSTAT.

254. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Employment by Economic Activity: Agriculture: All Persons for the United States (LFEAAGTTUSQ647S)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 20, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAAGTTUSQ647S; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV.

255. Подробнее о вертикальном сельском хозяйстве и его краткосрочных перспективах: “Why Vertical Farming Is the Future of Food”, RealLifeLore2, YouTube video, May 17, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBleQycVanU; “This Farm of the Future Uses No Soil and 95 % Less Water”, Seeker Stories, YouTube video, July 5, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_tvJtUHnmU; Stuart Oda, “Are Indoor Vertical Farms the Future of Agriculture?”, TED, YouTube video, February 7, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9jXW9r1xr8; David Roberts, “This Company Wants to Build a Giant Indoor Farm Next to Every Major City in the World”, Vox, April 11, 2018, https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/8/16611710/vertical-farms; Selina Wang, “This HighTech Vertical Farm Promises Whole Foods Quality at Walmart Prices”, Bloomberg, September 6, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-09-06/this-high-tech-vertical-farm-promises-whole-foods-quality-at-walmart-prices.

256. Подробнее о технологии вертикального сельского хозяйства: Kyree Leary, “Crops Are Harvested Without Human Input, Teasing the Future of Agriculture”, Futurism, February 26, 2018, https://futurism.com/automated-agriculture-uk; “Growing Up: How Vertical Farming Works”, B1M, YouTube video, March 6, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT4TWbPLrN8.

257. William Park, “How Far Can Vertical Farming Go?”, BBC, January 11, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230106-what-if-all-our-food-was-grown-in-indoor-vertical-farms; Ian Frazier, “The Vertical Farm”, New Yorker, January 1, 2017, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/09/the-vertical-farm.

258. Подробнее об экономии воды на вертикальных фермах наподобие Gotham Greens и Aero-Farms: Brian Heater, “Gotham Greens Just Raised $310M to Expand Its Greenhouses Nationwide”, TechCrunch, September 12, 2022, https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/12/gotham-greens-just-raised-310m-to-expand-its-greenhouses-nationwide; “Our Farms”, Gotham Greens, последняя проверка доступности 31 марта 2023 года, https://www.gothamgreens.com/our-farms; “This Future Farm Uses No Soil and 95 % Less Water”, FutureWise, YouTube video, June 26, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHkwXRMLcmE.

259. Laura Reiley, “Indoor Farming Looks Like It Could Be the Answer to Feeding a Hot and Hungry Planet. It’s Not That Easy”, Washington Post, November 19, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/11/19/indoor-farming-is-one-decades-hottest-trends-regulations-make-success-elusive.

260. Ritchie, “Half of the World’s Habitable Land Is Used for Agriculture”; Ellis et al., “Anthropogenic Transformation of the Biomes”; “Food and Agriculture Data”, FAOSTAT.

261. Подробнее об изобретении 3D-печати: Drew Turney, “History of 3D Printing: It’s Older Than You Think”, Design and Make with Autodesk, August 31, 2021, https://www.autodesk.com/redshift/history-of-3d-printing; Leo Gregurić, “History of 3D Printing: When Was 3D Printing Invented?”, All3DP, December 10, 2018, https://web.archive.org/web/20211227053912/https://all3dp.com/2/history-of-3d-printing-when-was-3d-printing-invented/.

262. Подробнее о самом процессе 3D-печати: “How Does 3D Printing Work? | The Deets”, Digital Trends, YouTube video, September 22, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGajFRaS834; Rebecca Matulka and Matty Green, “How 3D Printers Work”, Department of Energy, June 19, 2014, https://www.energy.gov/articles/how-3d-printers-work.

263. Эксперты в сфере 3D-печати рассказывают о перспективах отрасли; фотографии, показывающие улучшение разрешения, с которым 3D-принтеры обрабатывают детали: Michael Petch, “80 Additive Manufacturing Experts Predict the 3D Printing Trends to Watch in 2020”, 3DPrintingIndustry.com, January 15, 2020, https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/80-additive-manufacturing-experts-predict-the-3d-printing-trends-to-watch-in-2020-167177; Leo Gregurić, “The Smallest 3D Printed Things”, All3DP, January 30, 2019, https://all3dp.com/2/the-smallest-3d-printed-things.

264. “How It Works”, FitMyFoot, последняя проверка доступности 29 июня 2022 года, https://web.archive.org/web/20220629040739/https://fitmyfoot.com/pages/how-it-works.

265. Пример того, как 3D-печать используется для подгонки мебели под фигуру клиента: “IKEA Partnering with eSports Academy to Scan Bodies and 3D-Print Chairs”, NowThis, September 15, 2018, https://nowthisnews.com/videos/future/ikea-and-esports-academy-are-making-3d-printed-chairs; Bianca Britton, “The 3D-Printed Wheelchair: A Revolution in Comfort?”, CNN, January 24, 2017, https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/24/technology/3d-printed-wheelchair-benjamin-hubert-layer/index.html; Clare Scott, “Knife Maker Points to 3D Printing as Alternative Method of Craftsmanship”, 3DPrint.com, October 16, 2018, https://3dprint.com/227502/knife-maker-uses-3d-printing.

266. Подробнее об использовании 3D-печати при производстве медицинских имплантов: “3D Printed Implants Could Help Patients with Bone Cancer”, Insider, YouTube video, November 7, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcp-aaa1PBk; “3D Printed Lattices Improve Orthopaedic Implants”, Renishaw, YouTube video, November 28, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rm_3rUl3QE; AMFG, “Application Spotlight: 3D Printing for Medical Implants”, Autonomous Manufacturing Ltd., August 15, 2019, https://amfg.ai/2019/08/15/application-spotlight-3d-printing-for-medical-implants.

267. The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade: Tackling Emissions from International Freight Transport (Brussels: International Transport Forum, 2016), 2, https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/cop-pdf-06.pdf.

268. Dean Takahashi, “Dyndrite Launches GPU-Powered Improvements for Better 3D Printing Speed and Quality”, VentureBeat, November 18, 2019, https://venturebeat.com/2019/11/18/dyndrite-launches-gpu-powered-improvements-for-better-3d-printing-speed-and-quality; Agiimaa Kruchkin, “Innovation in Creation: Demand Rises While Prices Drop for 3D Printing Machines”, Manufacturing Tomorrow, February 16, 2016, https://www.manufacturingtomorrow.com/article/2016/02/innovation-in-creation-demand-rises-while-prices-drop-for-3d-printing-machines/7631.

269. “Profiles of 15 of the World’s Major Plant and Animal Fibres”, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, accessed April 28, 2023, http://www.fao.org/natural-fibres-2009/about/15-natural-fibres/en.

270. См. “Cytosurge FluidFM μ3Dprinter, World’s First 3D Printer at Sub-Micron Direct Metal Printing”, Charbax, YouTube video, May 21, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9oO6EiBt40; Sam Davies, “Nanofabrica Announces Commercial Launch of Micro-Level Resolution Additive Manufacturing Technology”, TCT Magazine, March 14, 2019, https://www.tctmagazine.com/additive-manufacturing-3d-printing-news/nanofabrica-micro-level-resolution-additive-manufacturing.

271. Подробнее о тканях, изготавливаемых на 3D-принтере: Zachary Hay, “3D Printed Fabric: The Most Promising Projects”, All3DP, November 7, 2019, https://all3dp.com/2/3d-printed-fabric-most-promising-project; Roni Jacobson, “The Shattering Truth of 3D-Printed Clothing”, Wired, May 12, 2017, https://www.wired.com/2017/05/the-shattering-truth-of-3d-printed-clothing.

272. Danny Paez, “An Incredible New 3D Printer Is 100X Faster Than What Was Possible: Video”, Inverse, January 26, 2019, https://www.inverse.com/article/52721-high-speed-3d-printing-mass-production; Mark Zastrow, “3D Printing Gets Bigger, Faster and Stronger”, Nature 578, no. 7793 (February 5, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00271-6; “Prediction 5: 3D Printing Reaches the ‘Plateau of Productivity’”, Deloitte, 2019, https://www.deloitte.co.uk/tmtpredictions/predictions/3d-printing.

273. Подробнее о процессе 3D-печати для создания органов: Amanda Deisler, “This 3D Bioprinted Organ Just Took Its First ‘Breath’”, Seeker, YouTube video, May 3, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0rIP_u1JPQ; NIH Research Matters, “3D-Printed Scaffold Engineered to Grow Complex Tissues”, National Institutes of Health, April 7, 2020, https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/3d-printed-scaffold-engineered-grow-complex-tissues; Luis Diaz-Gomez et al., “Fiber Engraving for Bioink Bioprinting Within 3D Printed Tissue Engineering Scaffolds”, Bioprinting 18, article e00076 (June 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bprint.2020.e00076Get; Luke Dormehl, “Ceramic Ink Could Let Doctors 3D Print Bones Directly into a Patient’s Body”, Digital Trends, January 30, 2021, https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/ceramic-ink-3d-printed-bones.

274. Подробнее о деятельности компании United Therapeutics, а также интересное интервью с ее руководителем и моим другом Мартиной Ротблатт: CNBC Squawk Box, “Watch CNBC’s Full Interview with United Therapeutics CEO Martine Rothblatt”, CNBC, June 25, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/06/25/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-united-therapeutics-ceo-martine-rothblatt.html; Antonio Regalado, “Inside the Effort to Print Lungs and Breathe Life into Them with Stem Cells”, MIT Technology Review, June 28, 2018, https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/06/28/240446/inside-the-effort-to-print-lungs-and-breathe-life-into-them-with-stem-cells.

275. Подробнее о том, почему пересаженные органы не приживаются: “Why Do Organ Transplants Fail So Often”, Julia Wilde, YouTube video, July 12, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ0K02m6_KM; Amy Shira Teitel, “Your Body Is Designed to Attack a New Organ, Now We Know Why”, Seeker, YouTube video, July 22, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfDL9PWubCs; “Lowering Rejection Risk in Organ Transplants”, Mayo Clinic, YouTube video, March 18, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUz 3X9ZYd5s.

276. Elizabeth Ferrill and Robert Yoches, “IP Law and 3D Printing: Designers Can Work Around Lack of Cover”, Wired, September 2013, https://www.wired.com/insights/2013/09/ip-law-and-3d-printing-designers-can-work-around-lack-of-cover; Michael K. Henry, “How 3D Printing Challenges Existing Intellectual Property Law”, Henry Patent Law Firm, August 13, 2018, https://henry.law/blog/3d-printing-challenges-patent-law.

277. Jake Hanrahan, “3D-Printed Guns Are Back, and This Time They Are Unstoppable”, Wired, May 20, 2019, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/3d-printed-guns-blueprints.

278. Подробнее о том, как это работает: Innovative Manufacturing and Construction Research Centre, “Future of Construction Process: 3D Concrete Printing”, Concrete Printing, YouTube video, May 30, 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfbhdZK PHro; Nathalie Labonnote et al., “Additive Construction: State-of-the-Art, Challenges and Opportunities”, Automation in Construction 72, no. 3 (December 2016): 347–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2016.08.026.

279. Полезный обзор последних достижений в этой области: Sriram Renganathan, “3D Printed House/Construction Materials: What Are They?”, All3DP, April 23, 2019, https://all3dp.com/2/3d-printing-in-construction-what-are-3d-printed-houses-made-of.

280. Melissa Goldin, “Chinese Company Builds Houses Quickly with 3D Printing”, Mashable, April 28, 2014, https://mashable.com/2014/04/28/3d-printing-houses-china.

281. Впечатляющее покадровое видео, как методом 3D-печати сооружается целиком каркас здания: “The Biggest 3D Printed Building”, Apis Cor, YouTube video, October 24, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69HrqNnrfh4.

282. Rick Stella, “It’s Hideous, But This 3D-Printed Villa in China Can Withstand a Major Quake”, Digital Trends, July 11, 2016, https://www.digitaltrends.com/home/3d-printed-chinese-villas-huashang-tenda.

283. Emma Bowman, “3D-Printed Homes Level Up with a 2-Story House in Houston”, NPR, January 16, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/01/16/1148943607/3d-printed-homes-level-up-with-a-2-story-house-in-houston; “Habitat for Humanity Home Completed”, Alquist, accessed December 6, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20221206002108/https://www.alquist3d.com/habitat; “How Concrete Homes Are Built with a 3D Printer”, Insider Art, YouTube video, June 28, 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL2KoMNzGTo.

284. Wetterstrand, “The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome”; Kris A. Wetterstrand, “DNA Sequencing Costs: Data”, National Human Genome Research Institute, November 19, 2021, https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data; National Research Council Committee on Mapping and Sequencing the Human Genome, Mapping and Sequencing the Human Genome, chap. 5 (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1988), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK218256; E. Y. Chan (Applied Biosystems), переписка с автором, 7 октября 2008 года.

285. Подробнее об иммунотерапии в лечении рака: “How Does Cancer Immunotherapy Work?”, MD Anderson Cancer Center, YouTube video, April 20, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwaMZCu4kpI; “Tumour Immunology and Immunotherapy”, Nature Video, YouTube video, September 17, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K09xzI Q8zsg; Alex D. Waldman, Jill M. Fritz, and Michael J. Lenardo, “A Guide to Cancer Immunotherapy: From T Cell Basic Science to Clinical Practice”, Nature Reviews Immunology 20 (2020): 651–68, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41577-020-0306-5.

286. Подробнее о CAR-T – клеточной терапии и обнадеживающих перспективах в лечении рака, которые она открывает: “CAR T-Cell Therapy: How Does It Work?”, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, YouTube video, August 31, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OadAW99s4Ik; Carl June, “A ‘Living Drug’ That Could Change the Way We Treat Cancer”, TED, YouTube video, October 2, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qWvVcBZzRg.

287. Обзор последних исследований по методам терапии с использованием индуцированных плюрипотентных стволовых клеток: Krista Conger, “Old Human Cells Rejuvenated with Stem Cell Technology”, Stanford Medicine, March 24, 2020, https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/03/old-human-cells-rejuvenated-with-stem-cell-technology.html; Qiliang Zhou et al., “Trachea Engineering Using a Centrifugation Method and Mouse-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells”, Tissue Engineering Part C: Methods 24, no. 9 (September 14, 2018): 524–33, https://doi.org/10.1089/ten.TEC.2018.0115; Kazuko Kikuchi et al., “Craniofacial Bone Regeneration Using iPS Cell-Derived Neural Crest Like Cells”, Journal of Hard Tissue Biology 27, no. 1 (January 1, 2018): 1–10, https://doi.org/10.2485/jhtb.27.1; “The World’s First Allogeneic iPS-Derived Retina Cell Transplant”, Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development, September 20, 2018, https://www.amed.go.jp/en/seika/fy2018-05.html; Hiroo Kimura et al., “Stem Cells Purified from Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell-Derived Neural Crest-Like Cells Promote Peripheral Nerve Regeneration”, Scientific Reports 8, no. 1, article 10071 (July 3, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27952-7; Suman Kanji and Hiranmoy Das, “Advances of Stem Cell Therapeutics in Cutaneous Wound Healing and Regeneration”, Mediators of Inflammation, article 5217967 (October 29, 2017), https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/5217967; David Cyranoski, “‘Reprogrammed’ Stem Cells Approved to Mend Human Hearts for the First Time”, Nature 557, no. 7707 (May 29, 2018): 619–20, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-05278-8; Yue Yu et al., “Application of Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in Liver Diseases”, Cell Medicine 7, no. 1 (April 22, 2014): 1–13, https://doi.org/10.3727/215517914X68 0056; Susumu Tajiri et al., “Regenerative Potential of Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells Derived from Patients Undergoing Haemodialysis in Kidney Regeneration”, Scientific Reports 8, no. 1, article 14919 (October 8, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33256-7; Sharon Begley, “Cancer-Causing DNA Is Found in Some Sem Cells Being Used in Patients”, STAT News, April 26, 2017, https://www.statnews.com/2017/04/26/stem-cells-cancer-mutations.

288. Подробнее о других факторах, оказавших влияние на эволюцию иммунной системы человека: Jorge Domínguez-Andrés and Mihai G. Netea, “Impact of Historic Migrations and Evolutionary Processes on Human Immunity”, Trends in Immunology 40, no. 12 (November 27, 2019): P1105–P1119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.it.2019.10.001.

289. Простое объяснение, что именно происходит в организме при диабете первого типа: “Type 1 Diabetes | Nucleus Health”, Nucleus Medical Media, YouTube video, January 10, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxbbBmbvu7I.

290. Рассказ об этом исследовании без технических подробностей и ссылки на ключевые научные статьи: Todd B. Kashdan, “Why Do People Kill Themselves? New Warning Signs”, Psychology Today, May 15, 2014, https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/curious/201405/why-do-people-kill-themselves-new-warning-signs.

Глава 5. Рынок труда в будущем: благополучие или кризис?

1. Подробнее о том, как удалось добиться такого быстрого прогресса: Alex Davies, “An Oral History of the Darpa Grand Challenge, the Grueling Robot Race That Launched the Self-Driving Car”, Wired, August 3, 2017, https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-grand-challenge-2004-oral-history; Joshua Davies, “Say Hello to Stanley”, Wired, January 1, 2006, https://www.wired.com/2006/01/stanley; Ronan Glon and Stephen Edelstein, “The History of Self-Driving Cars”, Digitaltrends, July 31, 2020, https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/history-of-self-driving-cars-milestones.

2. Kristen Korosec, “Waymo ’s Driverless Taxi Service Can Now Be Accessed on Google Maps”, TechCrunch, June 3, 2021, https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/03/waymos-driverless-taxi-service-can-now-be-accessed-on-google-maps; Rebecca Bellan, “Waymo Launches Robotaxi Service in San Francisco”, TechCrunch, August 24, 2021, https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/24/waymo-launches-robotaxi-service-in-san-francisco; Jonathan M. Gitlin, “Self-Driving Waymo Trucks to Haul Loads Between Houston and Fort Worth”, Ars Technica, June 10, 2021, https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/06/self-driving-waymo-trucks-to-haul-loads-between-houston-and-fort-worth; Dug Begley, “More Computer-Controlled Trucks Coming to Test-Drive I-45 Between Dallas and Houston”, Houston Chronicle, August 25, 2022, https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/transportation/ar ticle/More-computer-controlled-trucks-coming-to-17398269.php.

3. “Next Stop for Waymo One: Los Angeles”, Waymo, October 19, 2022, https://blog.waymo.com/2022/10/next-stop-for-waymo-one-los-angeles.html.

4. Aaron Pressman, “Google ’s Waymo Reaches 20 Million Miles of Autonomous Driving”, Fortune, January 7, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/googles-waymo-reaches-20-million-miles-of-autonomous-driving.

5. Will Knight, “Waymo ’s Cars Drive 10 Million Miles a Day in a Perilous Virtual World”, MIT Technology Review, October 10, 2018, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612251/waymos-cars-drive-10-million-miles-a-day-in-a-perilous-virtual-world; Alexis C. Madrigal, “Inside Waymo’s Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars”, Atlantic, August 23, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/08/inside-waymos-secret-testing-and-simulation-facilities/537648; John Krafcik, “Waymo Livestream Unveil: The Next Step in Self-Driving”, Waymo, YouTube video, March 27, 2018, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=-EBcpIvPWnY; Mario Herger, “2020 Disengagement Reports from California”, The Last Driver License Holder, February 9, 2021, https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2021/02/09/2020-disengagement-reports-from-california; “Off Road, but Not Offline: How Simulation Helps Advance Our Waymo Driver”, Waymo, April 28, 2020, https://blog.waymo.com/2020/04/off-road-but-not-offline – simulation27.html; Kris Holt, “Waymo’s Autonomous Vehicles Have Clocked 20 Million Miles on Public Roads”, Engadget, August 19, 2021, https://www.engadget.com/waymo-autonomous-vehicles-update-san-francisco-193934150.html.

6. Строго говоря, «глубокие» нейронные сети могут состоять всего из трех слоев. Однако благодаря росту вычислительной мощности в последние десять лет стало возможным практическое использование гораздо более глубоких нейросетей. Основным звеном программы AlphaGo была нейросеть из тринадцати слоев. В 2015–2016 гг. она позволила обыграть лучших игроков в го. Эту нейросеть нужно было обучить на огромном массиве данных, поэтому разработчикам пришлось запустить симуляцию по 1000 игр в секунду на каждом процессоре. В 2017 году новая нейросеть AlphaGo Zero, состоявшая из 79 слоев, смоделировала более 29 миллионов игр и победила оригинальную AlphaGo со счетом 100 – 0. В некоторых проектах уже используются нейросети, в которых больше 100 слоев. Не всегда большее количество слоев означает, что нейросеть умнее, но лишние слои могут помочь уловить нюансы и добавить уровни абстракции. Если перед ИИ стоит достаточно сложная задача, но у вас имеется большой запас данных, более глубокая нейросеть может найти в них скрытые закономерности, которые пропустила бы мелкая. Это очень важная особенность ИИ, и она стала причиной, почему многие другие сферы, в частности здравоохранение и материаловедение, постепенно превращаются в информационные технологии. А именно: по мере роста вычислительных мощностей нам удается строить все более глубокие нейросети. А с удешевлением процессов сбора и хранения данных у нас появляется возможность обучать нейросети на том количестве материала, который позволяет им в полной мере реализовать свой потенциал в ряде прикладных задач. Как только глубокое обучение затрагивает новую сферу деятельности, та начинает испытывать влияние экспоненциально растущего интеллекта. См. “AlphaGo”, Google DeepMind, accessed January 30, 2023, https://deepmind.com/research/case-studies/alphago-the-story-so-far; “AlphaGo Zero: Starting from Scratch”, Google DeepMind, October 18, 2017, https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphago-zero-starting-scratch; Tom Simonite, “This More Powerful Version of AlphaGo Learns On Its Own”, Wired, October 18, 2017, https://www.wired.com/story/this-more-powerful-version-of-alphago-learns-on-its-own; David Silver et al., “Mastering the Game of Go with Deep Neural Networks and Tree Search”, Nature 529, no. 7587 (January 27, 2016): 484–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16961; Christof Koch, “How the Computer Beat the Go Master”, Scientific American, March 19, 2016, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-computer-beat-the-go-master; Josh Patterson and Adam Gibson, Deep Learning: A Practitioner’s Approach (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2017), 6–8, https://books.google.com/books?id=qrcuDwAAQBAJ; Thomas Anthony, Zheng Tian, and David Barber, “Thinking Fast and Slow with Deep Learning and Tree Search”, 31st Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2017), revised December 3, 2017, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08439.pdf; Kaiming He et al., “Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition”, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, December 10, 2015, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.03385.pdf.

7. Holt, “Waymo ’s Autonomous Vehicles Have Clocked 20 Million Miles on Public Roads”.

8. В 2021 году численность рабочей силы в США составляла около 155 миллионов человек. Из них 3,49 миллиона были профессиональными водителями грузовиков всех типов, а еще 832 600 человек были водителями пассажирского транспорта – всего около 2,7 % работников страны. См. See US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Status of the Civilian Population by Sex and Age”, US Department of Labor, accessed April 7, 2023, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm; Jennifer Cheeseman Day and Andrew W. Hait, “America Keeps On Truckin’: Number of Truckers at All-Time High”, US Census Bureau, June 6, 2019, https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/america-keeps-on-trucking.html; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor, “30 Percent of Civilian Jobs Require Some Driving in 2016”, The Economics Daily, June 27, 2017, https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2017/30-percent-of-civilian-jobs-require-some-driving-in-2016.htm.

9. “Economics and Industry Data”, American Trucking Associations, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.trucking.org/economics-and-industry-data; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Occupational Outlook Handbook, Passenger Vehicle Drivers – Summary”, US Department of Labor, accessed January 30, 2023, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/passenger-vehicle-drivers.htm.

10. Mark Fahey, “Driverless Cars Will Kill the Most Jobs in Select US States”, CNBC, September 2, 2016, https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/02/driverless-cars-will-kill-the-most-jobs-in-select-us-states.html.

11. Fahey, “Driverless Cars Will Kill the Most Jobs in Select US States”.

12. Cheeseman Day and Hait, “America Keeps on Truckin’”.

13. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Economic Trends, US Department of Transportation, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/caxh-t8jd.

14. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013), 2, 36–38, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf.

15. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

16. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

17. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

18. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

19. Ljubica Nedelkoska and Glenda Quintini, “Automation, Skills Use and Training”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers no. 202 (March 8, 2018), 7–8, https://doi.org/10.1787/2e2f4eea-en.

20. Nedelkoska and Quintini, “Automation, Skills Use and Training”, 7–8.

21. “A New Study Finds Nearly Half of Jobs Are Vulnerable to Automation”, Economist, April 24, 2018, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/24/a-study-finds-nearly-half-of-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-automation; Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”.

22. Alexandre Georgieff and Anna Milanez, “What Happened to Jobs at High Risk of Automation?”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers no. 255 (OECD Publishing, May 21, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1787/10bc97f4-en.

23. McKinsey & Company, “The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier ”, McKinsey & Company, June 2023: 37–41, https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier#introduction.

24. Richard Conniff, “What the Luddites Really Fought Against”, Smithsonian, March 2011, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-the-luddites-really-fought-against-264412.

25. “Hidden Histories: Luddites – A Short History of One of the First Labor Movements”, WRIR.org, May 23, 2010, https://www.wrir.org/2010/05/23/hidden-histories-luddites-a-short-history-of-one-of-the-first-labor-movemen; Conniff, “What the Luddites Really Fought Against”; Bill Kovarik, Revolutions in Communication: Media History from Gutenberg to the Digital Age (New York: Bloomsbury, 2015), 8, https://books.google.com/books?id= F6ugBQAAQBAJ; Jessica Brain, “The Luddites”, Historic UK, последняя проверка доступности 20 апреля 2023 года, https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/The-Luddites.

26. Conniff, “What the Luddites Really Fought Against”; Brain, “The Luddites”.

27. Brain, “The Luddites”; Kevin Binfield, ed., Writings of the Luddites (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004); Frank Peel, The Risings of the Luddites (Heckmondwike, UK: T. W. Senior, 1880).

28. Stanley Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, in Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States After 1800, ed. Dorothy S. Brady (Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1966), 119, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c1567.pdf; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Employment by Economic Activity: Agriculture: All Persons for the United States (LFEAAGTTUSQ647S)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 20, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAAGTTUSQ647S; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV.

29. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 118; US Census Bureau, “Historical National Population Estimates July 1, 1900 to July 1, 1999”, Population Estimates Program, Population Division, US Census Bureau, revised June 28, 2000, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/1900-1980/national/totals/popclockest.txt.

30. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated January 26, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B230RC0A052NBEA.

31. Michael Huberman and Chris Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’: Days and Hours of Work in Old and New Worlds, 1870–2000”, Explorations in Economic History 44, no. 4 (July 12, 2007): 548, https://personal.lse.ac.uk/minns/Huberman_Minns_EEH_2007.pdf; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States (AVHWPEUSA065NRUG)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated January 21, 2021, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG; Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer, “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, American Economic Review 105, no. 10 (2015): 3150–82, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/docs/the_next_genera tion_of_the_penn_world_table.pdf.

32. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 30, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A792RC0A052NBEA; “CPI Inflation Calculator”, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Real Median Personal Income in the United States (MEPAINUSA672N)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 13, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N.

33. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 118; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”.

34. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”.

35. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Real Median Personal Income in the United States (MEPAINUSA672N)”.

36. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548.

37. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Total Wages and Salaries, BLS (BA06RC1A027NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated October 12, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BA06RC1A027NBEA; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Hours Worked by Full-Time and Part-Time Employees (B4701C0A222NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated October 12, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B4701C0A222NBEA.

38. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Personal Income (PI)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 31, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI.

39. См., например, Microeconomix, The App Economy in the United States (London: Deloitte, August 17, 2018), 4, https://actonline.org/wp-content/uploads/Deloitte-The-App-Economy-in-US.pdf.

40. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119.

41. F. M. L. Thompson, “The Second Agricultural Revolution, 1815–1880”, Economic History Review 21, no. 1 (April 1968): 62–77, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2592204; Norman E. Borlaug, “Contributions of Conventional Plant Breeding to Food Production”, Science 219, no. 4585 (February 11, 1983): 689–93, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/219 /4585/689.full.pdf.

42. Подробнее о том, как индустриализация преобразовала сельское хозяйство: “Causes of the Industrial Revolution: The Agricultural Revolution”, ClickView, YouTube video, August 10, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QKIts2_yJ0; John Green, “Coal, Steam, and the Industrial Revolution: Crash Course World History #32”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, August 30, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhL5DCizj5c; John Green, “The Industrial Economy: Crash Course US History #23”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, July 25, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6tRp-zRUJs; “Mechanization on the Farm in the Early 20th Century”, Iowa PBS, YouTube video, April 28, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI9K8ZJqAwE; “Cyrus McCormick”, PBS, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/theymadeamerica/whomade/mccormick_hi.html; Mark Overton, Agricultural Revolution in England: The Transformation of the Agrarian Economy 1500–1850 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996).

43. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119.

44. Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Crop Yields”, Our World in Data, updated 2022, https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields; Sarah E. Cusick and Michael K. Georgieff, “The Role of Nutrition in Brain Development: The Golden Opportunity of the ‘First 1000 Days’”, Journal of Pediatrics 175 (August 2016): 16–21, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4981537; Gary M. Walton and Hugh Rockoff, History of the American Economy, 11th ed. (Boston: Cengage Learning, 2009), 1–15.

45. “Provisional Cereal and Oilseed Production Estimates for England 2022”, Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs (UK), December 21, 2022, https://www.gov.uk/govern ment/statistics/cereal-and-oilseed-rape-production/provisional-cereal-and-oilseed-production-estimates-for-england-2022.

46. “UK Population Estimates 1851 to 2014”, Office for National Statistics (UK), July 6, 2015, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/adhocs/004356ukpopulationestimates1851to2014; Central Intelligence Agency, “Explore All Countries – United Kingdom”, CIA World Factbook, November 29, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20221207065501/https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-kingdom.

47. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Employment by Economic Activity: Agriculture”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; International Labour Organization, “Employment in Agriculture (% of Total Employment) (Modeled ILO Estimate)”, Worldbank.org, January 29, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=US.

48. Увлекательные материалы об автоматизации в сельском хозяйстве: Kyree Leary, “Crops Are Harvested Without Human Input, Teasing the Future of Agriculture”, Futurism, February 26, 2018, https://futurism.com/automated-agriculture-uk; “Growing Up: How Vertical Farming Works”, B1M, YouTube video, March 6, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT4TWbPLrN8; “The Future of Farming”, The Daily Conversation, YouTube video, May 17, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmla9NLFBvU; Michael Larkin, “Labor Terminators: Farming Robots Are About To Take Over Our Farms”, Investor’s Business Daily, August 10, 2018, https://www.investors.com/news/farming-robot-agriculture-technology.

49. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119; US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1999 (Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 1999): 879, https://www.census.gov/prod/99pubs/99statab/sec31.pdf; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Percent of Employment in Agriculture in the United States (USAPEMANA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated June 10, 2013, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAPEMANA; International Labour Organization, “Employment in Agriculture”.

50. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119.

51. Benjamin T. Arrington, “Industry and Economy During the Civil War”, National Park Service, August 23, 2017, https://www.nps.gov/articles/industry-and-economy-during-the-civil-war.htm; Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119.

52. Занимательное видео об изобретении конвейера и о том, какую роль тот сыграл во Второй промышленной революции: John Green, “Ford, Cars, and a New Revolution: Crash Course History of Science #28”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, November 12, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPvwpYeOJnI.

53. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119.

54. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output (OUTMS)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 2, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS.

55. Увлекательные ролики о контейнерных перевозках и их влиянии на сферу логистики: Wall Street Journal, “How a Steel Box Changed the World: A Brief History of Shipping”, YouTube video, January 24, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MUkgDIQdcM; PolyMatter, “How Container Ships Work”, YouTube video, November 2, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= DY9VE3i-KcM.

56. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHMFG)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 2, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHMFG.

57. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”.

58. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output (OUTMS)”.

59. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”.

60. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output (OUTMS)”.

61. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output (OUTMS)”.

62. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119–20.

63. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”.

64. Стоит заметить, что доступные данные не отражают в полной мере ни влияние Великой депрессии, которая, вероятно, вызвала куда более резкое снижение занятости на производствах, чем показано на графике, ни роль Второй мировой войны, из-за которой произошел кратковременный, но сильный скачок в количестве трудоустроенных в индустриальном секторе – информация Бюро трудовой статистики не захватывает этот период времени. See US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119–20.

65. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 3, 2021, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”.

66. International Labour Organization, “Labor Force, Female (% of Total Labor Force)– United States”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, September 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.FE.ZS?locations=US; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: Women (LNS11300002)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002.

67. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)”.

68. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, America’s Children: Key National Indicators of Well-Being, 2021 (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2021): 81, https://web.archive.org/web/20220721170310/https://www.childstats.gov/pdf/ac2021/ac_21.pdf.

69. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, America’s Children, 81.

70. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, America’s Children, 81.

71. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Population, Total for United States (POPTOTUSA647NWDB)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated July 5, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTOTUSA647NWDB.

72. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Population, Total for United States (POPTOTUSA647NWDB)”; “U.S. and World Population Clock”, US Census Bureau, updated April 20, 2023, https://www.census.gov/popclock.

73. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1999, 879; Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 118; “U.S. and World Population Clock”, US Census Bureau; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Population, Total for United States (POPTOTUSA647NWDB)”; US Census Bureau, “Resident Population of the United States”, US Census Bureau, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www2.census.gov/library/visualizations/2000/dec/2000-resident-population/unitedstates.pdf.

74. National Center for Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Elementary, Secondary, and Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions, by Level and Control of Institution: Selected Years, 1869–70 Through Fall 2030”, US Department of Education, 2021, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_105.30.asp; Tom Snyder, ed., 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 1993), 64, http://web20kmg.pbworks.com/w/file/fetch/66806781/120%20Years%20of%20American%20Education%20A%20Statistical%20Portrait.pdf.

75. National Center for Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Elementary, Secondary, and Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions”.

76. National Center for Education Statistics, “Total and Current Expenditures per Pupil in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools: Selected Years, 1919–20 Through 2018–19”, US Department of Education, September 2021, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_236.55.asp; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 12, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL.

77. National Center for Education Statistics, “Total and Current Expenditures per Pupil in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average”.

78. National Center for Education Statistics, 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait, 65.

79. Несколько наиболее авторитетных исследований, показывающих, что глобальные тенденции имеют выгодное для нас направление: Max Roser, “Most of Us Are Wrong About How the World Has Changed (Especially Those Who Are Pessimistic About the Future)”, Our World in Data, July 27, 2018, https://ourworldindata.org/wrong-about-the-world; “Why Are We Working on Our World in Data?”, Our World in Data, July 20, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/motivation; Steven Pinker, “Is the World Getting Better or Worse? A Look at the Numbers”, TED video, April 2018, https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_is_the_world_getting _better_or_worse_a_look_at_the_numbers.

80. Подробнее о взглядах Эрика Бриньолфсона: Erik Brynjolfsson, “The Key to Growth? Race with the Machines”, TED, February 2013, https://www.ted.com/talks/erik_brynjolfsson_the_key_to_growth_race_with_the_machines; Erik Brynjolfsson et al., Mind vs Machine: Implications for Productivity, Wages and Employment from AI”, The Artificial Intelligence Channel, YouTube video, November 20, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roemLDPy_Ww; Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.W. Norton, 2014).

81. Подробное, опирающееся на факты и данные объяснение тенденции к деквалификации, начавшейся в 1950-е: David Kunst, “Deskilling Among Manufacturing Production Workers”, VoxEU, August 9, 2019, https://voxeu.org/article/deskilling-among-manufacturing-production-workers.

82. Подробнее о растущих требованиях к квалификации работников и процессе производства обуви в компании FitMyFoot: Pablo Illanes et al., “Retraining and Reskilling Workers in the Age of Automation”, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/retrain ing-and-reskilling-workers-in-the-age-of-automation; “The Science and Technology of FitMyFoot”, FitMyFoot, accessed April 20, 2023, https://fitmyfoot.com/pages/science.

83. Jack Kelly, “Wells Fargo Predicts That Robots Will Steal 200,000 Banking Jobs Within the Next 10 Years”, Forbes, October 8, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/10 /08/wells-fargo-predicts-that-robots-will-steal-200000-banking-jobs-within-the-next-10-years/#237ecaba68d7; James Bessen, “How Computer Automation Affects Occupations: Technology, Jobs, and Skills”, Boston University School of Law (Law & Economics working paper no. 15–49, November 13, 2015), 5, https://www.bu.edu/law/files /2015/11/NewTech-2.pdf.

84. G. M. Filisko, “Paralegals and Legal Assistants Are Taking on Expanded Duties”, ABA Journal, November 1, 2014, http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/techno_change_o_paralegal_legal_assistant_duties_expand; Jean O’Grady, “Analytics, AI and Insights: 5 Innovations That Redefined Legal Research Since 2010”, Above the Law, January 2, 2020, https://abovethelaw.com/2020/01/analytics-ai-and-insights-5-innovations-that-redefined-legal-research-since-2010.

85. Kevin Roose, “A.I.-Generated Art Is Already Transforming Creative Work”, New York Times, October 21, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/technology/ai-generated-art-jobs-dall-e-2.html.

86. Краткое и доступное объяснение различий между капиталом и трудом: BBC, “Methods of Production: Labour and Capital”, BBC Bitesize, accessed January 30, 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zth78mn/revision/5; Sal Khan, “What Is Capital?”, Khan Academy, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-fi nance-domain/macroeconomics/macroeconomics-income-inequality/piketty-capital/v/what-is-capital; Catherine Rampell, “Companies Spend on Equipment, Not Workers”, New York Times, June 9, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/10/business/10capital.html; Tim Harford, “What Really Powers Innovation: High Wages”, Financial Times, January 11, 2013, https://www.ft.com/content/b7ad1c68-59fb-11e2-b728-00144feab49a.

87. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 2, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB.

88. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)”.

89. Soon-Yong Choi and Andrew B. Whinston, “The IT Revolution in the USA: The Current Situation and the Problems”, in The Internet Revolution: A Global Perspective, ed. Emanuele Giovannetti, Mitsuhiro Kagami, and Masatsugu Tsuji (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 219, https://books.google.com/books?id=1f6wD7gezP4C.

90. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)”.

91. “Descriptions of General Purpose Digital Computers”, Computers and Automation 4, no. 6 (June 1965): 76, https://web.archive.org/web/20190723025854/http://www.bitsavers.org/pdf/computersAndAutomation/196506.pdf.

93. Подробнее о ВВП и предельных издержках: Tim Callen, “Gross Domestic Product: An Economy’s All”, International Monetary Fund, December 18, 2018, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/gdp.htm; Alicia Tuovila, “Marginal Cost of Production”, Investopedia, September 20, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marginalcostofpro duction.asp; Sal Khan, “Marginal Revenue and Marginal Cost”, Khan Academy, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/ap-microeco nomics/production-cost-and-the-perfect-competition-model-temporary/short-run-production-costs/v/marginal-revenue-and-marginal-cost; Jeremy Rifkin, The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism (New York: St. Martin’s, 2014).

94. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

95. “Introducing the AMD Radeon RX 7900 XT”, AMD, accessed January 30, 2023, https:// www.amd.com/en/products/graphics/amd-radeon-rx-7900xt; Michael Justin Allen Sexton, “AMD Radeon RX 7900 XT Review”, PC Magazine, December 17, 2022, https://www.pcmag.com/reviews/amd-radeon-rx-7900-xt.

96. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

97. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “A Review of Hedonic Price Adjustment Techniques for Products Experiencing Rapid and Complex Quality Change”, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 15, 2022, https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/hedonic-price-adjustment-techniques.htm; Dave Wasshausen and Brent R. Moulton, “The Role of Hedonic Methods in Measuring Real GDP in the United States”, Bureau of Economic Analysis, October 2006, https://www.bea.gov/system/files/papers/P2006-6_0.pdf.

98. Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, and Felix Eggers, “Using Massive Online Choice Experiments to Measure Changes in Well-Being”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 15 (April 9, 2019): 7250–55, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1815663116.

101. Jasmine Enberg, “Social Media Update Q1 2021”, eMarketer, March 30, 2021, https://www.emarketer.com/content/social-media-update-q1-2021.

102. “Social Media Fact Sheet”, Pew Research Center, April 7, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media; Stella U. Ogunwoleet al., “Population Under Age 18 Declined Last Decade”, US Census Bureau, August 12, 2021, https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/united-states-adult-population-grew-faster-than-nations-total-population-from-2010-to-2020.html; “Minimum Wage”, US Department of Labor, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage.

103. Simon Kemp, “Digital 2020: 3.8 Billion People Use Social Media”, We Are Social, January 30, 2020, https://web.archive.org/web/20210808051917/https://wearesocial.com/blog/2020 /01/digital-2020-3-8-billion-people-use-social-media; Paige Cooper, “43 Social Media Advertising Statistics That Matter to Marketers in 2020”, Hootsuite, April 23, 2020, https://web.archive.org/web/20200729070657/https://blog.hootsuite.com/social-media-advertising-stats.

104. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical Care in U.S. City Average (CPIMEDSL)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 12, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIMEDSL#0; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”; Xavier Jaravel, “The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations: Evidence from the U.S. Retail Sector”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 715–83, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy031; Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012).

105. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)”.

106. Краткое объяснение этих определений и данных, лежащих в их основе: Clay Halton, “Civilian Labor Force”, Investopedia, July 23, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/civilian-labor-force.asp; US Census Bureau, “Growth in U.S. Population Shows Early Indication of Recovery amid COVID-19 Pandemic”, US Census Bureau press release CB22-214, December 22, 2022, https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2022-popula tion-estimates.html; “Population, Total – United States”, World Bank, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=US; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”.

107. US Census Bureau, “Growth in U.S. Population Shows Early Indication of Recovery amid COVID-19 Pandemic”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”.

108. Data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)”.

109. Lauren Bauer et al., “All School and No Work Becoming the Norm for American Teens”, Brookings Institution, July 2, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/07/02/all-school-and-no-work-becoming-the-norm-for-american-teens; Mitra Toossi, “Labor Force Projections to 2022: The Labor Force Participation Rate Continues to Fall”, Monthly Labor Review, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2013, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/labor-force-projections-to-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.htm.

110. Jonnelle Marte, “Aging Boomers Explain Shrinking Labor Force, NY Fed Study Says”, Bloomberg, March 30, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-30/aging-boomers-explain-shrinking-labor-force-ny-fed-study-says; Richard Fry, “The Pace of Boomer Retirements Has Accelerated in the Past Year”, Pew Research Center, November 9, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retire ments-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year.

111. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 25 to 54 years (LNU01300060)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060.

112. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Working Age Population: Aged 25–54: All Persons for the United States (LFWA25TTUSM647N)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 20, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA25TTUSM647N.

113. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 25 to 54 years (LNU01300060)”.

114. Заметим, что, хотя уровень участия в рабочей силе среди американцев 55 лет и старше растет, он все равно гораздо ниже, чем среди более молодых слоев населения, поэтому общий уровень участия в рабочей силе снижается. Кроме того, доля жителей старшего возраста сама по себе увеличивается, потому что беби-бумеров намного больше, чем представителей того поколения, которому они пришли на смену. См. US Census Bureau, “65 and Older Population Grows Rapidly as Baby Boomers Age”, US Census Bureau press release CB2099, June 25, 2020, https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/65-older-population-grows.html; William E. Gibson, “Age 65+ Adults Are Projected to Outnumber Children by 2030”, AARP, March 14, 2018, https://www.aarp.org/home-family/friends-family/info-2018/census-baby-boomers-fd.html; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate by Age, Sex, Race, and Ethnicity”, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated September 8, 2022, https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-partici pation-rate.htm.

115. “Life Expectancy at Birth, Total (Years) – United States”, World Bank, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=US.

116. Подробнее об изменениях в демографической структуре рабочей силы: см. Audrey Breitwieser, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh, “The Recent Rebound in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation”, Brookings Institution, August 2, 2018, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/02/the-recent-rebound-in-prime-age-labor-force-participation; Jo Harper, “Automation Is Coming: Older Workers Are Most at Risk”, Deutsche Welle, July 24, 2018, https://www.dw.com /en/automation-is-coming-older-workers-are-most-at-risk/a-44749804; Peter Gosselin, “If You’re Over 50, Chances Are the Decision to Leave a Job Won’t Be Yours”, ProPublica, December 28, 2018, https://www.propublica.org/article/older-workers-united-states-pushed-out-of-work-forced-retirement; Karen Harris, Austin Kimson, and Andrew Schwedel, “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality”, Bain & Co., February 7, 2018, https://www.bain.com/insights/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality; Alana Semuels, “This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like”, Atlantic, February 22, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar chive/2018/02/pensions-safety-net-california/553970.

117. “Top 10 °Cryptocurrencies by Market Capitalization”, CoinMarketCap, последняя проверка доступности 20 апреля 2023 года, https://coinmarketcap.com.

118. “USD Exchange Trade Volume”, Blockchain.com, accessed July 31, 2023, https://www.blockchain.com/charts/trade-volume?timespan=all.

119. “USD Exchange Trade Volume”, Blockchain.com.

120. Bank for International Settlements, BIS Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments (Bank for International Settlements, December 2022), 16, https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212.pdf.

121. “Top 10 °Cryptocurrencies by Market Capitalization”, CoinMarketCap; “Bitcoin Price”, Coinbase, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin.

122. “Bitcoin Price”, Coinbase.

123. “Bitcoin Price”, Coinbase.

124. “Bitcoin Price”, Coinbase.

125. Подробнее о растущей роли лидеров мнений в экономике: “How Big Is the Influencer Economy?”, TechCrunch, YouTube video, November 13, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJBn2JDfDS0.

126. Sarah Perez, “iOS App Store Has Seen Over 170B Downloads, Over $130B in Revenue Since July 2010”, TechCrunch, May 31, 2018, https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/31/ios-app-store-has-seen-over-170b-downloads-over-130b-in-revenue-since-july-2010.

127. “Number of Available Applications in the Google Play Store from December 2009 to September 2022”, Statista, updated March 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/266210/number-of-available-applications-in-the-google-play-store.

128. “Number of Available Applications in the Google Play Store”, Statista.

129. Trevor Mogg, “App Economy Creates Nearly Half a Million US Jobs”, Digital Trends, February 7, 2012, https://web.archive.org/web/20170422014624/https://www.digitaltrends.com/android/app-economy-creates-nearly-half-a-million-us-jobs.

130. Microeconomix, App Economy in the United States, 4.

131. ACT: The App Association, State of the U.S. App Economy: 2020, 7th ed. (Washington, DC: ACT: The App Association, 2021), 4, https://actonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2020-App-economy-Report.pdf.

132. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”.

133. Dusty Stowe, “Why Star Trek: The Original Series Was Cancelled After Season 3”, Screen Rant, May 21, 2019, https://screenrant.com/star-trek-original-series-cancelled-season-3-reason-why.

134. Kayla Cobb, “From ‘South Park’ to ‘BoJack Horseman’, Tracking the Rise of Continuity in Adult Animation”, Decider, December 16, 2015, https://decider.com/2015/12/16/tracking-the-rise-of-continuity-in-animated-comedies; Gus Lubin, “‘BoJack Horseman’ Creators Explain Why Netflix Is So Much Better Than TV”, Business Insider, October 3, 2014, https://www.businessinsider.com/why-bojack-horseman-went-to-netflix-2014-9.

135. International Telecommunication Union, “Key ICT Indicators for Developed and Developing Countries”.

136. Подробнее об истории и задачах системы социального страхования в США: Craig Benzine, “Social Policy: Crash Course Government and Politics #49”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, February 27, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlxLX8Fto_A; “Here’s How the Great Depression Brought on Social Security”, History, YouTube video, April 26, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdE_EV3wnXM; “Historical Background and Development of Social Security”, Social Security Administration, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html.

137. В связи с искажениями, вызванными пандемией COVID-19, 2020-й – последний год, для которого во время написания книги существовала подходящая статистика по программам социального страхования. Более свежие данные по разным странам трудно сопоставить между собой, потому что расходы на меры противодействия пандемии в разных государствах сильно различаются. См. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Social Expenditure Database (SOCX)”, OECD.org, January 2023, https://www.oecd.org/social/expenditure.htm.

138. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Social Expenditure Database”.

139. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Social Expenditure Database”.

140. “GDP (Current US$) – United Kingdom”, World Bank, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GB; “Population, Total – United Kingdom”, World Bank, последняя проверка доступности 20 апреля 2023 года, https://data.worldbank.org/indi cator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=GB.

141. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Social Expenditure Database”; “GDP (Current US$) – United States”, World Bank, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US.

142. “Population, Total – United States”, World Bank.

143. Noah Smith, “The U.S. Social Safety Net Has Improved a Lot”, Bloomberg, May 16, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-16/the-u-s-social-safety-net-has-improved-a-lot.

144. Государственные расходы США очень сложно точно оценить, причем на всех уровнях: местных властей, штата и федерального правительства. К тому же данные с начала XX века трудно сопоставить с информацией последних лет. Так что самый тщательный подсчет все равно будет основываться на ряде предположений и методических допущений, правильный выбор которых не всегда очевиден. Особенно это касается расходов, связанных с программой социального страхования. Поэтому суммы затрат на социальное страхование, упомянутые в этой главе, следует понимать как первые приближения, а не совершенно точные значения. К тому же из-за отличий в методике сбора данных годовые затраты на соцобеспечение не совпадают с суммами так называемых «социальных расходов», которые значатся в базе данных ОЭСР. Тем не менее общая тенденция – что сеть социального страхования растет независимо от того, какая партия у власти – отчетливо просматривается.

145. US Census Bureau, “Historical National Population Estimates, July 1, 1900 to July 1, 1999”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”; “U.S. and World Population Clock – July 1, 2021”, US Census Bureau, updated January 30, 2023, https://www.census.gov/popclock; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Gross Domestic Product (GDP)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 30, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; Christopher Chantrill, “Government Spending Chart”, usgovernmentspending.com, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1900_2021USk_22s2li011mcny_10t40t00t; “CPI Inflation Calculator” for July 2012–July 2021, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm; Christopher Chantrill, “Government Spending Chart”, usgovernmentspending.com, последняя проверка доступности 20 апреля 2023 года, https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1900_2021USk_22s2li011mcny_F0t; Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, Maddison Project Database, version 2020, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, November 2, 2020, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020; Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy. A New 2020 Update” (working paper WP-15, Maddison Project, October 2020), https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/publications/wp15.pdf; John J. McCusker, “Colonial Statistics”, in Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the Present, ed. Susan G. Carter et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006), V-671; Richard Sutch, “National Income and Product”, in Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the Present, ed. Susan G. Carter et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006), III-23–25; Leandro Prados de la Escosura, “Lost Decades? Economic Performance in Post-Independence Latin America”, Journal of Latin American Studies 41, no. 2 (May 2009): 279–307, https://www.jstor.org/stable/27744128; “CPI Inflation Calculator” for July 2011–July 2021, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed January 30, 2023, https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 30, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA.

146. Источники данных для этого графика приведены в п. 145.

147. Источники данных для этого графика приведены в п. 145.

148. Источники данных для этого графика приведены в п. 145.

149. Видео нашей беседы: Ray Kurzweil and Chris Anderson, “Ray Kurzweil on What the Future Holds Next”, The TED Interview podcast, December 2018, https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_ray_kurzweil_on_what_the_future_holds_next.

150. Подробнее о растущей поддержке концепции универсального базового дохода (или аналогичной идеи «всеобщего доступа к базовым услугам») и свидетельствах в пользу этой идеи: Will Bedingfield, “Universal Basic Income, Explained”, Wired, August 25, 2019, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/universal-basic-income-explained; Karen Yuan, “A Moral Case for Giving People Money”, Atlantic, August 22, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/mem bership/archive/2018/08/a-moral-case-for-giving-people-money/568207; Annie Lowrey, “Stockton’s Basic-Income Experiment Pays Off”, Atlantic, March 3, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/03/stocktons-basic-income-experiment-pays-off/618174; Dylan Matthews, “Basic Income: The World’s Simplest Plan to End Poverty, Explained”, Vox, April 25, 2016, https://www.vox.com/2014/9/8/6003359/basic-income-negative-income-tax-questions-explain; Sigal Samuel, “Everywhere Basic Income Has Been Tried, in One Map”, Vox, October 20, 2020, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/19/21112570/universal-basic-income-ubi-map; Ian Gough, “Move the Debate from Universal Basic Income to Universal Basic Services”, UNESCO Inclusive Poverty Lab, January 19, 2021, https://en.unesco.org/inclusivepolicylab/analytics/move-debate-universal-basic-income-universal-basic-services.

151. Derek Thompson, “A World Without Work”, Atlantic, July/August 2015, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294.

152. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении; Jaravel, “The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations”, 715–83; Diamandis and Kotler, Abundance.

153. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical Care in U.S. City Average (CPIMEDSL)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”.

154. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical Care in U.S. City Average (CPIMEDSL)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

155. Весьма содержательная книга о связи между управлением страной и ее процветанием: Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (New York: Crown, 2012).

156. Полезное наглядное объяснение пирамиды Маслоу и ее значения: “Why Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Matters”, The School of Life, YouTube video, April 10, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0PKWTta7lU.

157. Sandra L. Colby and Jennifer M. Ortman, Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060, Current Populations Reports, P25-1143, US Census Bureau, March 2015, 6, https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf; US Census Bureau, “American Fact Finder, Table B24010—Sex by Occupation for the Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over”, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages /productview.xhtml?src=bkmk.

158. Skip Descant, “Autonomous Vehicles to Have Huge Impact on Economy, Tech Sector”, Government Technology, June 27, 2018, https://www.govtech.com/fs/automation/Autonomous-Vehicles-to-Have-Huge-Impact-on-Economy-Tech-Sector.html; Kirsten Korosec, “Intel Predicts a $7 Trillion Self-Driving Future”, The Verge, June 1, 2017, https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/1/15725516/intel-7-trillion-dollar-self-driving-autonomous-cars; Adam Ozimek, “The Massive Economic Benefits of Self-Driving Cars”, Forbes, November 8, 2014, https://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2014/11/08/the-massive-economic-benefits-of-self-driving-cars/#723609f53273.

159. Существуют данные о 42 915 смертях в авариях на дорогах США в 2021 году. Хотя могут быть разные мнения относительно того, какой процент погибших можно отнести на ошибки водителей, совершенно ясно, что аварий, в которых человеческий фактор сыграл ключевую роль, подавляющее большинство – от 90 до 99 %. Беспилотные автомобили, управляемые достаточно продвинутым ИИ, смогли бы избежать почти всех ДТП. См. Bryant Walker Smith, “Human Error as a Cause of Vehicle Crashes”, Center for Internet and Society, Stanford Law School, December 18, 2013, https://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/human-error-cause-vehicle-crashes; David Zipper, “The Deadly Myth That Human Error Causes Most Car Crashes”, Atlantic, November 26, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/deadly-myth-human-error-causes-most-car-crashes/620808; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Critical Reasons for Crashes Investigated in the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey”, NHTSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis report DOT HS 812 115, US Department of Transportation, February 2015, https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Sub-Categories in 2021”, NHTSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis report DOT HS 813 298, US Department of Transportation, May 2022, https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPubli cation/813298.

160. Carl Benedikt Frey et al., “Political Machinery: Did Robots Swing the 2016 US Presidential Election?”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy 34, no. 3 (2018): 418–42, https://www.ox fordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/Political_Machinery_July_2018.pdf.

161. Подробнее о долгосрочной тенденции к снижению уровня насилия в мире: Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie, “Homicides”, Our World in Data, December 2019, https://ourworldindata.org /homicides; Manuel Eisner, “From Swords to Words: Does Macro-Level Change in SelfControl Predict Long-Term Variation in Levels of Homicide?”, Crime and Justice 43, no. 1 (September 2014): 80–81; UN Office on Drugs and Crime, “Intentional Homicides (Per 100,000 People) – France, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2020&locations=FR-NL-SE-DE-CH-IT-GB-ES&start=2020&view=bar; “Appendix Tables: Homicide in England and Wales”, UK Office for National Statistics, February 9, 2023, https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/appendixtableshomicideinenglandandwales/current/homicideyemarch22appendixtables.xlsx; European Commission, Investing in Europe’s Future: Fifth Report on Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion (Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2010), https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/official/reports/cohesion5/pdf/5cr_part1_en.pdf; Global Study on Homicide, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2019, https://www.unodc.org/docu ments/data-and-analysis/gsh/Booklet1.pdf; Global Study on Homicide, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2011, http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/Homicide/Globa_study_on_homicide_2011_web.pdf; Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: Penguin, 2011).

162. Подробная лекция Пинкера на эту тему: “Steven Pinker: Better Angels of Our Nature”, Talks at Google, YouTube video, November 1, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gGf7fXM3jQ.

163. Большинство из этих прогнозов опубликовано в моей книге «Век разумных машин» (1990). См. Raymond Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1990), 429–34.

164. Kurzweil, Age of Intelligent Machines, 432–34.

165. Alex Shashkevich, “Meeting Online Has Become the Most Popular Way U.S. Couples Connect, Stanford Sociologist Finds”, Stanford News, August 21, 2019, https://news.stanford.edu/2019/08/21/online-dating-popular-way-u-s-couples-meet; Michael J. Rosenfeld, Reuben J. Thomas, and Sonia Hausen, “Disintermediating Your Friends: How Online Dating in the United States Displaces Other Ways of Meeting”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 36 (September 3, 2019): 17753–58, https://doi.org/10.1073 /pnas.1908630116.

166. Даже если бы у смартфона образца 2024 года не было доступа к мобильной сети, весь англоязычный сегмент «Википедии» мог быть сохранен в его внутренней памяти. По разным оценкам объем текстовой информации в «Википедии» составляет около 150Гб, в то время как современные модели iPhone обладают памятью до 1Тб. См. Nick Lewis and Matt Klein, “How to Download Wikipedia for Offline, At-Your-Fingertips Reading”, How-To Geek, March 25, 2022, https://www.howtogeek.com/260023/how-to-download-wikipedia-for-offline-at-your-fingertips-reading; “Buy iPhone 14 Pro”, Apple, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.apple.com/shop/buy-iphone/iphone-14-pro/6.7-inch-display-1tb-space-black-unlocked.

167. Чтобы внести ясность: здесь я говорю о той стадии, когда люди будут жить в симбиозе с ИИ, а также будет достигнуто изобилие материальных ресурсов. В переходный период, как мы уже обсуждали в этой главе, будут определенные трения и проявление конкуренции по мере того, как ИИ будет замещать работников, а некоторые рабочие места и вовсе будут становиться ненужными в новой экономической парадигме.

Глава 6. Какой будет забота о здоровье в следующие тридцать лет

1. Один из мировых лидеров в сфере биомоделирования, компания Insilico Medicine разработала систему ИИ под названием Pharma.AI и воспользовалась ей для разработки INS018_055, низкомолекулярного лекарственного средства, которое сейчас проходит вторую фазу клинических испытаний. Препарат предназначается для лечения редкого заболевания – идиопатического легочного фиброза. Это первый раз, когда ИИ не просто улучшил разработку исследователей, а спроектировал лекарство от и до: выявил неизвестную прежде биомолекулярную мишень и обнаружил молекулу, способную воздействовать на эту мишень. Потрясающий рассказ о работе компании Insilico: “How AI Is Accelerating Drug Discovery”, YouTube video, April 3, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqB vitxD05M; Hayden Field, “The First Fully A.I.-Generated Drug Enters Clinical Trials in Human Patients”, CNBC, June 29, 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/ai-generated-drug-begins-clinical-trials-in-human-patients.html.

2. Больше информации о создании препаратов с помощью ИИ: Vanessa Bates Ramirez, “Drug Discovery AI Can Do in a Day What Currently Takes Months”, SingularityHub, May 7, 2017, https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/07/drug-discovery-ai-can-do-in-a-day-what-currently-takes-months; “MIT Quest for Intelligence Launch: AI-Driven Drug Discovery”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, YouTube video, March 9, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqMRrRS_0JY; “Developer Spotlight: Opening a New Era of Drug Discovery with Amber”, NVIDIA Developer, YouTube video, July 29, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqnPGHdh7iM; “We’re Teaching Robots and AI to Design New Drugs”, SciShow, YouTube video, September 30, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRXqD-7FANg; Francesca Properzi et al., “Intelligent Drug Discovery: Powered by AI” (Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions, 2019), https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/32961_intelligent-drug-discovery/DI_Intelligent-Drug-Discovery.pdf; Nic Fleming, “How Artificial Intelligence Is Changing Drug Discovery”, Nature 557, no. 7707 (May 31, 2018): S55–S57, https://doi.org/10.1038 /d41586-018-05267-x; David H. Feedman, “Hunting for New Drugs with AI”, Nature 576, no. 7787 (December 18, 2019): S49–S53, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03846-0.

3. Abhimanyu S. Ahuja, Vineet Pasam Reddy, and Oge Marques, “Artificial Intelligence and COVID-19: A Multidisciplinary Approach”, Integrative Medicine Research 9, no. 3, article 100434 (May 27, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.imr.2020.100434; Jared Sagoff, “Argonne’s Researchers and Facilities Playing a Key Role in the Fight Against COVID-19”, Argonne National Laboratory, April 27, 2020, https://www.anl.gov/article/argonnes-researchers-and-facilities-playing-a-key-role-in-the-fight-against-covid19.

4. Jean-Louis Reymond and Mahendra Awale, “Exploring Chemical Space for Drug Discovery Using the Chemical Universe Database”, ACS Chemical Neuroscience 3, no. 9 (April 25, 2012): 649–57, https://doi.org/10.1021/cn3000422.

5. Chi Heem Wong, Kien Wei Siah, and Andrew W. Lo, “Estimation of Clinical Trial Success Rates and Related Parameters”, Biostatistics 20, no. 2 (January 31, 2018): 273–86, https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxx069.

6. “The Drug Development Process: Step 3: Clinical Resarch”, US Food and Drug Administration, последняя проверка доступности 20 октября 2022 года, https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process /step-3-clinical-research; Stuart A. Thompson, “How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?”, New York Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html; Institute of Medicine Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation, “The State of Clinical Research in the United States: An Overview”, in Transforming Clinical Research in the United States (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2010), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK50886; Thomas J. Moore et al., “Estimated Costs of Pivotal Trials for Novel Therapeutic Agents Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, 2015–2016”, JAMA Internal Medicine 178, no. 11 (November 2018): 1451–57, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.3931; Olivier J. Wouters, Martin McKee, Jeroen Luyten, “Estimated Research and Development Investment Needed to Bring a New Medicine to Market, 2009–2018”, Journal of the American Medical Association 323, no. 9 (March 3, 2020): 844–53, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.1166; Biopharmaceutical Research & Development: The Process Behind New Medicines, PHRMA, accessed October 20, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20230306041340 /http://phrma-docs.phrma.org/sites/default/files/pdf/rd_brochure_022307.pdf.

7. David Sparkes and Rhett Burnie, “AI Invents More Effective Flu Vaccine in World First, Adelaide Researchers Say”, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, July 2, 2019, https:// www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-02/computer-invents-flu-vaccine-in-world-first/11271170; Andrew Tarantola, “How AI Is Stopping the Next Great Flu Before It Starts”, Engadget, February 14, 2020, https://www.engadget.com/2020/02/14/how-ai-is-helping-halt-the-flu-of-the-future.

8. Tarantola, “How AI is Stopping the Next Great Flu Before It Starts”.

9. Ian Sample, “Powerful Antibiotic Discovered Using Machine Learning for First Time”, Guardian, February 20, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/20/antibiotic-that-kills-drug-resistant-bacteria-discovered-through-ai.

10. Sample, “Powerful Antibiotic Discovered Using Machine Learning for First Time”.

11. “Moderna ’s Work on a Potential Vaccine Against COVID-19 ”, Moderna, 2020, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000119312520074867/d884510dex991.htm.

12. Более подробно о том, как Moderna использовала ИИ при разработке вакцин: “AI and the COVID-19 Vaccine: Moderna’s Dave Johnson”, Me, Myself, and AI podcast, ep. 209 (July 13, 2021), https://sloanreview.mit.edu/audio/ai-and-the-covid-19-vaccine-modernas-dave-johnson; “Moderna on AWS”, Amazon Web Services, accessed October 20, 2022, https://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/innovators/moderna; Bryce Elder, “Will Big Tobacco Save Us from the Coronavirus?”, Financial Times, April 1, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/f909fb16-f514-47da-97dc-c03e752dd2e1.

13. Gary Polakovic, “Artificial Intelligence Aims to Outsmart the Mutating Coronavirus”, USC News, February 5, 2021, https://news.usc.edu/181226/artificial-intelligence-ai-corona virus-vaccines-mutations-usc-research; Zikun Yang et al., “An In Silico Deep Learning Approach to Multi-Epitope Vaccine Design: A SARS-CoV-2 Case Study”, Scientific Reports 11, article 3238 (February 5, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81749-9.

14. Подробнее о задаче определения структуры белка, в том числе видеоролики с полезными визуализациями: “The Protein Folding Revolution”, Science Magazine, YouTube video, July 21, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAJQbSLlonI; “Protein Structure”, Professor Dave Explains, YouTube video, August 27, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= EweuU2fEgjw; Ken Dill, “The Protein Folding Problem: A Major Conundrum of Science: Ken Dill at TEDxSBU”, TEDx Talks, YouTube video, October 22, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zm-3kovWpNQ; Ken A. Dill et al., “The Protein Folding Problem”, Annual Review of Biophysics 37 (June 9, 2008): 289–316, https://doi.org/10.1146/an nurev.biophys.37.092707.153558; Andrew W. Senior et al., “Improved Protein Structure Prediction Using Potentials from Deep Learning”, Nature 577, no. 7792 (January 15, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1923-7.

15. Подробнее о том, как система AlphaFold добилась больших успехов в задаче определения структуры белков: Andrew W. Senior et al., “AlphaFold: Using AI for Scientific Discovery”, DeepMind, January 15, 2020, https://deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaFold-Using-AI-for-scientific-discovery; Andrew Senior, “AlphaFold: Improved Protein Structure Prediction Using Potentials from Deep Learning”, Institute for Protein Design, YouTube video, August 23, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1uVbrIv-Q; Greg Williams, “Inside DeepMind’s Epic Mission to Solve Science’s Trickiest Problem”, Wired, August 6, 2019, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/deepmind-protein-folding; Senior et al., “Improved Protein Structure Prediction Using Potentials from Deep Learning”, 706–10.

16. Ian Sample, “Google ’s DeepMind Predicts 3D Shapes of Proteins”, Guardian, December 2, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins; Matt Reynolds, “DeepMind’s AI Is Getting Closer to Its First Big Real-World Application”, Wired, January 15, 2020, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/deepmind-protein-folding-alphafold.

17. Подробные объяснения работы AlphaFold 2 и оригинальная научная статья об этой системе: “AlphaFold: The Making of a Scientific Breakthrough”, DeepMind, YouTube video, November 30, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gg7WjuFs8F4; “DeepMind Solves Protein Folding | AlphaFold 2”, Lex Fridman, YouTube video, December 2, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7wJDJ56c88; Ewen Callaway, “‘It Will Change Everything’: DeepMind’s AI Makes Gigantic Leap in Solving Protein Structures”, Nature 588, no. 7837 (November 30, 2020): 203–4, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03348-4; Demis Hassabis, “Putting the Power of AlphaFold into the World’s Hands”, DeepMind, July 22, 2022, https://deepmind.com/blog/article/putting-the-power-of-alphafold-into-the-worlds-hands; John Jumper et al., “Highly Accurate Protein Structure Prediction with AlphaFold”, Nature 596, no. 7873 (July 15, 2021): 583–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03819-2.

18. Mohammed AlQuraishi, “Protein-Structure Prediction Revolutionized”, Nature 596, no. 7873 (August 23, 2021): 487–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02265-4.

19. Hassabis, “Putting the Power of AlphaFold into the World’s Hands”; Jumper et al., “Highly Accurate Protein Structure Prediction with AlphaFold”.

20. Сравнительно простые для восприятия рассказы об этих методах: National Cancer Institute, “CAR T Cells: Engineering Patients’ Immune Cells to Treat Their Cancers”, National Institutes of Health, March 10, 2022, https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/research/car-t-cells; “BiTE: The Engager”, Amgen, 2022, https://www.amgenoncology.com/resources/BiTE-the-Engager.pdf; “Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Cancer Treatment”, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, последняя проверка доступности 20 октября 2022 года, https://www.mskcc.org/cancer-care/diagnosis-treatment/cancer-treatments/immunotherapy/checkpoint-inhibitors.

21. Robert C. Sterner and Rosalie M. Sterner, “CAR-T Cell Therapy: Current Limitations and Potential Strategies”, Blood Cancer Journal 11, article 69 (April 6, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41408-021-00459-7.

22. Описание гипотетических механизмов нейродегенеративных заболеваний: “Alzheimer’s Disease”, Mayo Clinic, February 19, 2022, https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/alzheimers-disease/symptoms-causes/syc-20350447; “Parkinson’s Disease”, Mayo Clinic, July 8, 2022, https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/parkinsons-dis ease/symptoms-causes/syc-20376055.

23. “About Mental Health”, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, June 28, 2021, https://www.cdc.gov/mentalhealth/learn/index.htm.

24. Подробнее о недостатках популярных психиатрических лекарств: Melinda Wenner Moyer, “How Much Do Antidepressants Help, Really?”, New York Times, April 21, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/21/well/antidepressants-ssri-effectiveness.html; Harvard Health Publishing, “What Are the Real Risks of Antidepressants?”, Harvard Medical School, August 17, 2021, https://www.health.harvard.edu/newsletter_article/what-are-the-real-risks-of-antidepressants; Krishna C. Vadodaria et al., “Altered Serotonergic Circuitry in SSRI-Resistant Major Depressive Disorder Patient-Derived Neurons”, Molecular Psychiatry 24 (March 22, 2019): 808–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-019-0377-5.

25. Подробнее о внедрении моделирования in silico в сферу здравоохранения: Fleming, “How Artificial Intelligence Is Changing Drug Discovery”; Madhumita Murgia, “AI-Designed Drug to Enter Human Clinical Trial for First Time”, Financial Times, January 30, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/fe55190e-42bf-11ea-a43a-c4b328d 9061c; Osman N. Yogurtcu et al., “TCPro Simulates Immune System Response to Biotherapeutic Drugs”, US Food and Drug Administration, September 17, 2019, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/science-research-biologics/tcpro-simulates-immune-system-response-biotherapeutic-drugs; Tina Morrison, “How Simulation Can Transform Regulatory Pathways”, US Food and Drug Administration, August 14, 2018, https://www.fda.gov/science-research/about-science-research-fda/how-simulation-can-transform-regulatory-pathways; Anna Edney, “Computer-Simulated Tests Eyed at FDA to Cut Drug Approval Costs”, Bloomberg, July 7, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-07/drug-agency-looks-to-computer-simulations-to-cut-testing-costs; “Virtual Bodies for Real Drugs: In Silico Clinical Trials Are the Future”, The Medical Futurist, August 10, 2019, https://medicalfuturist.com/in-silico-trials-are-the-future; Pratik Shah et al., “Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Clinical Development: A Translational Perspective”, NPJ Digital Medicine 2, no. 69 (July 26, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-019-0148-3; Neil Savage, “Tapping into the Drug Discovery Potential of AI”, Biopharma Dealmakers 15, no. 2 (May 27, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1038/d43747-021-00045-7.

26. Ray Kurzweil, “AI-Powered Biotech Can Help Deploy a Vaccine in Record Time”, Wired, May 19, 2020, https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-ai-powered-biotech-can-help-deploy-a-vaccine-in-record-time; Aaron Dubrow, “AI Fast-Tracks Drug Discovery to Fight COVID-19”, Texas Advanced Computing Center, April 22, 2020, https://www.tacc.utexas.edu/-/ai-fast-tracks-drug-discovery-to-fight-covid-19; Thompson, “How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?”; Tina Morrison et al., “Advancing Regulatory Science with Computational Modeling for Medical Devices at the FDA ’s Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories”, Frontiers in Medicine 5, article 241 (September 25, 2018), https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2018.00241.

27. “The Drug Development Process: Step 3: Clinical Resarch”, US Food and Drug Administration.

28. Daniel Bastardo Blanco, “Our Cells Are Filled with ‘Junk DNA’—Here’s Why We Need It”, Discover, August 13, 2019, https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/our-cells-are-filled-with-junk-dna-heres-why-we-need-it.

29. Jian Zhou et al., “Whole-Genome Deep-Learning Analysis Identifies Contribution of Noncoding Mutations to Autism Risk”, Nature Genetics 51, no. 6 (May 27, 2019): 973–80, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-019-0420-0; Thomas Sumner, “New Causes of Autism Found in ‘Junk’ DNA”, Simons Foundation, May 27, 2019, https://www.simonsfounda tion.org/2019/05/27/autism-noncoding-mutations.

30. Sumner, “New Causes of Autism Found in ‘Junk’ DNA”.

31. Nancy Fliesler, “Using Multiple Data Streams and Artificial Intelligence to ‘Nowcast’ Local Flu Outbreaks”, Vector, Boston Children’s Hospital, January 14, 2019, https://web.archive.org/web/20210121214157/https://vector.childrenshospital.org/2019/01/local-fluprediction-argonet.

32. Fliesler, “Using Multiple Data Streams and Artificial Intelligence to ‘Nowcast’ Local Flu Outbreaks”.

33. Fliesler, “Using Multiple Data Streams and Artificial Intelligence to ‘Nowcast’ Local Flu Outbreaks”.

34. Fliesler, “Using Multiple Data Streams and Artificial Intelligence to ‘Nowcast’ Local Flu Outbreaks”; Fred S. Lu et al., “Improved State-Level Influenza Nowcasting in the United States Leveraging Internet-Based Data and Network Approaches”, Nature Communications 10, article 147 (January 11, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08082-0.

35. Подробнее о CheXNet и ее преемнике CheXpert: “CheXNet and Beyond”, Matthew Lungren, YouTube video, November 10, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqYte9UMJCg; Pranav Rajpurkar et al., “CheXNet: Radiologist-Level Pneumonia Detection on Chest X-Rays with Deep Learning”, Stanford Machine Learning Group working paper, November 14, 2017, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.05225v1.pdf; Jeremy Irvin et al., “CheXpert: A Large Chest Radiograph Dataset with Uncertainty Labels and Expert Comparison”, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 33, no. 1 (July 17, 2019): AAAI-10, IAAI-19, EAAI-20, https://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/AAAI/article/view/3834.

36. Huiying Liang et al., “Evaluation and Accurate Diagnoses of Pediatric Diseases Using Artificial Intelligence”, Nature Medicine 25, no. 3 (February 11, 2019): 433–38, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-018-0335-9.

37. Dimitrios Mathios et al., “Detection and Characterization of Lung Cancer Using Cell-Free DNA Fragmentomes”, Nature Communications 12, article 5060 (August 20, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24994-w.

38. Sophie Bushwick, “Algorithm That Detects Sepsis Cut Deaths by Nearly 20 Percent”, Scientific American, August 1, 2022, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/algorithm-that-detects-sepsis-cut-deaths-by-nearly-20-percent; Roy Adams et al., “Prospective, Multi-Site Study of Patient Outcomes After Implementation of the TREWS Machine Learning-Based Early Warning System for Sepsis”, Nature Medicine 28 (July 21, 2022): 1455–60, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01894-0; Katharine E. Henry et al., “Factors Driving Provider Adoption of the TREWS Machine Learning-Based Early Warning System and Its Effects on Sepsis Treatment Timing”, Nature Medicine 28 (July 21, 2022), 1447–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01895-z.

39. Lungren, “CheXNet and Beyond”; Rajpurkar et al., “CheXNet: Radiologist-Level Pneumonia Detection”; Irvin et al., “CheXpert: A Large Chest Radiograph Dataset with Uncertainty Labels and Expert Comparison”, AAAI-10, IAAI-19, EAAI-20; Thomas Davenport and Ravi Kalakota, “The Potential for Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare”, Future Healthcare Journal 6, no. 2 (June 2019): 94–98, https://doi.org/10.7861/futurehosp.6-2-94.

40. Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, “AI and Compute”, OpenAI, May 16, 2018, https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute.

41. Eliza Strickland, “Autonomous Robot Surgeon Bests Humans in World First”, IEEE Spectrum, May 4, 2016, https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/robotics/medical-robots/autonomous-robot-surgeon-bests-human-surgeons-in-world-first.

42. Alice Yan, “Chinese Robot Dentist Is First to Fit Implants in Patient’s Mouth Without Any Human Involvement”, South China Morning Post, September 21, 2017, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2112197/chinese-robot-dentist-first-fit-implants-patients-mouth-without-any-human.

43. Илон Маск рассказывает о технологии автоматического вживления электродов компании Neuralink: “Neuralink: Elon Musk’s Entire Brain Chip Presentation in 14 Minutes (Supercut)”, CNET, YouTube video, August 28, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= CLUWDLKAF1M.

44. Wallace P. Ritchie Jr., Robert S. Rhodes, and Thomas W. Biester, “Work Loads and Practice Patterns of General Surgeons in the United States, 1995–1997”, Annals of Surgery 230, no. 4 (October 1999): 533–43, https://doi.org/10.1097/00000658-199910000-00009.

45. Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988).

46. Peter Weibel, “Virtual Worlds: The Emperor’s New Bodies”, in Ars Electronica: Facing the Future, ed. Timothy Druckery (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1999), 215, https://monoskop.org/images/4/47/Ars_Electronica_Facing_the_Future_A_Survey_of_Two_Decades_1999.pdf.

47. “Neuron Firing Rates in Humans”, AI Impacts, April 14, 2015, https://aiimpacts.org/rate-of-neuron-firing; Suzana Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers: A Linearly Scaled-up Primate Brain”, Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 3, no. 31 (November 9, 2009), https://doi.org/10.3389/neuro.09.031.2009; David A. Drachman, “Do We Have Brain to Spare?”, Neurology 64, no. 12 (June 27, 2005), https://doi.org/10.1212/01.WNL.00001 66914.38327.BB; Antony Leather, “Intel Fires Back at AMD with Fastest Ever Processors: Mobile CPUs with up to 8 Cores and 5.3GHz Inbound”, Forbes, April 2, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/antonyleather/2020/04/02/intel-fires-back-at-amd-with-fastest-ever-processors-mobile-cpus-with-up-to-8-cores-and-53ghz-inbound/#210c5243643d.

48. Mladen Božanić and Saurabh Sinha, “Emerging Transistor Technologies Capable of Terahertz Amplification: A Way to Re-Engineer Terahertz Radar Sensors”, Sensors 19, no. 11 (May 29, 2019), https://doi.org/10.3390/s19112454; “Intel Core i9-10900K Processor”, Intel, accessed December 23, 2022, https://ark.intel.com/content/www/us/en/ark/products/199332/intel-core-i910900k-processor-20m-cache-up-to-5-30-ghz.html.

49. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Viking, 2005), 125; Moravec, Mind Children, 59.

50. “June 2022”, Top500.org, accessed October 20, 2022, https://www.top500.org/lists /top500/2022/06.

51. Статья, содержащая пересказ лекции Фейнмана от 29 декабря 1959 года: Richard Feynman, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom”, Engineering and Science 23, no. 5 (February 1960): 22–26, 30–36, http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/47/2/1960Bottom.pdf.

52. Feynman, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom”, 22–26, 30–36.

53. John von Neumann, Theory of Self-reproducing Automata (Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1966), https://archive.org/details/theoryofselfrepr00vonn_0/mode/2up; John G. Kemeny, “Man Viewed as a Machine”, Scientific American 192, no. 4 (April 1955): 58–67, in nearly complete form at https://dijkstrascry.com/sites/default/files/papers/JohnKemenyManViewedasaMachine.pdf.

54. Von Neumann, Theory of Self-reproducing Automata, 251–96, 377.

55. For Drexler’s original books, see K. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1986); K. Eric Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 1992).

56. Drexler, Engines of Creation, 18–19, 105–8, 247.

57. Drexler, Nanosystems, 343–66.

58. Drexler, Nanosystems, 354–55.

59. Ralph C. Merkle, et al., “Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints”, Journal of Mechanisms and Robotics, Vol. 10, no. 6, article 061006, September 17, 2018, arXiv:1801.03534v2 [cs.ET], March 25, 2019, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.03534.pdf.

60. «Молекулярно-механический логический элемент» по проекту Меркла состоит из 87 595 атомов углерода и 33 100 атомов водорода. Его объем составляет 27 нм × 32 нм × 7нм, то есть 6048 кубических нанометров. Это означает, что в одном литре поместится примерно 1,65 × 10²⁰ (165 квинтиллионов) логических элементов. При рабочей частоте в 100МГц они смогут выполнять максимум 10²⁸ логических операций в секунду на литр. Заметим, что это теоретический максимум без учета инженерных ограничений. Пока не ясно, насколько близко мы на практике сможем подобраться к этим значениям. См. Merkle et al., “Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints”, arXiv, 24–27; Drexler, Nanosystems, 370–71.

61. По данным Меркла и соавторов, на выполнение одной операции вышеописанный логический элемент будет тратить порядка 10^-26 джоулей энергии (на порядок больше, чем 10^-27 Дж – таковы будут затраты на одно поворотное соединение). Таким образом, на 10²⁸ операций в секунду у этого гипотетического литрового компьютера уйдет 100 ватт. См. Merkle et al., “Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints”, arXiv, 24–27.

62. Liqun Luo, “Why Is the Human Brain So Efficient?”, Nautilus, April 12, 2018, http://nautil.us/issue/59/connections/why-is-the-human-brain-so-efficient.

63. Ralph C. Merkle, “Design Considerations for an Assembler”, Nanotechnology 7, no. 3 (September 1996): 210–15, https://doi.org/10.1088/0957-4484/7/3/008, mirrored in similar version at http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/nano4/merklePaper.html.

64. Merkle, “Design Considerations for an Assembler”, 210–15; Ralph. C. Merkle, “Self Replicating Systems and Molecular Manufacturing”, Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 45, no. 12 (December 1992): 407–13, available in adapted version at http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepJBIS.html; Neil Jacobstein, “Foresight Guidelines for Responsible Nanotechnology Development”, Foresight Institute, April 2006, https://foresight.org/guidelines/current.php.

65. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “The Gray Goo Problem”, KurzweilAI.net, March 20, 2001, https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-gray-goo-problem; Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations”, Foresight Institute, April 2000, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Ecophagy.htm.

66. James Lewis, “Ultrafast DNA Robotic Arm: A Step Toward a Nanofactory?”, Foresight Institute, January 25, 2018, https://foresight.org/ultrafast-robotic-arm-step-toward-nanofactory; Kohji Tomita et al., “Self-Description for Construction and Execution in Graph Rewriting Automata”, in Advances in Artificial Life: 8th European Conference, ECAL 2005, Canterbury, UK, September 5–9, 2005, Proceedings, ed. Mathieu S. Capcarrere et al. (Heidelberg, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media, 2005), 705–14.

67. Подробнее об успешных попытках построить работающие наноразмерные машины и запчасти для них: Eric Drexler, “Big Nanotech: Building a New World with Atomic Precision”, Guardian, October 21, 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm; Mark Peplow, “The Tiniest Lego: A Tale of Nanoscale Motors, Rotors, Switches and Pumps”, Nature 525, no. 7567 (September 2, 2015): 18–21, https://doi.org/10.1038/525018a; Carlos Manzano et al., “Step-by-Step Rotation of a Molecule-Gear Mounted on an Atomic-Scale Axis”, Nature Materials 8, no. 6 (June 14, 2009): 576–79, https://doi.org/10.1038/nmat2467; Babak Kateb and John D. Heiss, The Textbook of Nanoneuroscience and Nanoneurosurgery (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013): 500–501, https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Textbook_of_Nanoneuroscience_and_Nan/rCbOBQAAQBAJ; Torben Jasper-Toennies et al., “Rotation of Ethoxy and Ethyl Moieties on a Molecular Platform on Au(111)”, ACS Nano 14, no. 4 (February 19, 2020): 3907–16, https://doi.org/10.1021/acsnano.0c00029; Kwanoh Kim et al., “Man-Made Rotary Nanomotors: A Review of Recent Development”, Nanoscale 8, no. 20 (May 19, 2016): 10471–90, https://doi.org/10.1039/c5nr08768f; The Optical Society, “Nanoscale Machines Convert Light into Work”, Phys.org, October 8, 2020, https://phys.org/news/2020-10-nanoscale-machines.html.

68. Дебаты Дрекслера и Смолли, мои комментарии к ним, записи двух бесед с Дрекслером и обзор последних исследований, открывающих путь к созданию молекулярных ассемблеров: Richard E. Smalley, “Of Chemistry, Love and Nanobots”, Scientific American, September 2001, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/of-chemistry-love-and-nanobots; Rudy Baum, “Nano technology: Drexler and Smalley Make the Case for and Against ‘Molecular Assemblers’”, Chemical & Engineering News 81, no. 48 (September 8, 2003): 37–42, https://web.archive.org/web/20230116122623/http://pubsapp.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html; Eric Drexler, “Transforming the Material Basis of Civilization | Eric Drexler | TEDxISTAlameda”, TEDx Talks, YouTube video, November 16, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9RiB_o7Szs; Eric Drexler, “Dr. Eric Drexler – The Path to Atomically Precise Manufacturing”, The Artificial Intelligence Channel, YouTube video, September 18, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAA-HWMaF9o; UT-Battelle, Productive Nanosystems: A Technology Roadmap, Battelle Memorial Institute and Foresight Nanotech Institute, 2007, https://foresight.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Nanotech_Roadmap_2007_main.pdf; James Lewis, “Atomically Precise Manufacturing as the Future of Nanotechnology”, Foresight Institute, March 8, 2015, https://foresight.org/atomically-precise-manu facturing-as-the-future-of-nanotechnology; Xiqiao Wang et al., “Atomic-Scale Control of Tunneling in Donor-Based Devices”, Communications Physics 3, article 82 (May 11, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1038/s42005-020-0343-1; “Paving the Way for Atomically Precise Manufacturing”, UT Dallas, YouTube video, February 9, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or3jYNZ6fn8; University of Texas at Dallas, “Microscopy Breakthrough Paves the Way for Atomically Precise Manufacturing”, Phys.org, February 12, 2018, https://phys.org/news/2018-02-microscopy-breakthrough-paves-atomically-precise.html; Kiel University, “Towards a Light Driven Molecular Assembler”, Phys.org, July 23, 2019, https://phys.org/news/2019-07-driven-molecular.html; Jonathan Wyrick et al., “Atom-by-Atom Fabrication of Single and Few Dopant Quantum Devices”, Advanced Functional Materials 29, no. 52 (August 14, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1002/adfm.201903475; Farid Tajaddodianfar et al., “On the Effect of Local Barrier Height in Scanning Tunneling Microscopy: Measurement Methods and Control Implications”, Review of Scientific Instruments 89, no. 1, article 013701 (January 2, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5003851.

69. Ray Kurzweil, “The Drexler-Smalley Debate on Molecular Assembly”, KurzweilAI.net, December 1, 2003, https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-drexler-smalley-debate-on-molecular-assembly.

70. Drexler, Nanosystems, 398–410.

71. Drexler, Nanosystems, 238–49, 458–68.

72. Drexler, Engines of Creation; Drexler, Nanosystems; Dexter Johnson, “Diamondoids on Verge of Key Application Breakthroughs”, IEEE Spectrum, March 31, 2017, https://spec trum.ieee.org/nanoclast/semiconductors/materials/diamondoids-on-verge-of-key-application-breakthroughs.

73. Neal Stephenson, The Diamond Age: Or, a Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer (New York: Bantam, 1995).

74. Matthew A. Gebbie et al., “Experimental Measurement of the Diamond Nucleation Landscape Reveals Classical and Nonclassical Features”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 33 (August 14, 2018): 8284–89, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803654115.

75. Hongyao Xie et al., “Large Thermal Conductivity Drops in the Diamondoid Lattice of CuFeS² by Discordant Atom Doping”, Journal of the American Chemical Society 141, no. 47 (November 2, 2019): 18900–909, https://doi.org/10.1021/jacs.9b10983; Shenggao Liu, Jeremy Dahl, and Robert Carlson, “Heteroatom-Containing Diamondoid Transistors”, U.S. Patent 7,402,835 (filed July 16, 2003; issued July 22, 2008), US Patent and Trademark Office, https://patents.google.com/patent/US7402835B2/en.

76. См., например, Robert A. Freitas Jr., “A Simple Tool for Positional Diamond Mechanosynthesis, and Its Method of Manufacture”, U.S. Patent 7,687,146 (filed February 11, 2005; issued March 30, 2010), US Patent and Trademark Office, https://patents.google.com/patent/US7687146B1/en; Samuel Stolz et al., “Molecular Motor Crossing the Frontier of Classical to Quantum Tunneling Motion”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 26 (June 15, 2020): 14838–42, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918654117; Haifei Zhan et al., “From Brittle to Ductile: A Structure Dependent Ductility of Diamond Nanothread”, Nanoscale 8, no. 21 (May 10, 2016): 11177–84, https://doi.org/10.1039 /C6NR02414Ad.

77. Подробности об этой разработке и ссылки на другие работы Меркла в области нанотехнологий можно найти в: Ralph C. Merkle, “A Proposed ‘Metabolism’ for a Hydrocarbon Assembler”, Nanotechnology 8, no. 4 (December 1997): 149–62, https://iopscience.iop.org/article /10.1088/0957-4484/8/4/001/meta, mirrored at http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/hydro CarbonMetabolism.html; “Papers by Ralph C. Merkle”, Merkle.com, accessed October 20, 2022, http://www.merkle.com/merkleDir/papers.html.

78. Merkle, “A Proposed ‘Metabolism’ for a Hydrocarbon Assembler”.

79. Об успехах в изучении графена, углеродных нанотрубок, наноцепей, а также о впечатляющем проекте МТИ по созданию компьютерного чипа с 14 000 транзисторов, целиком состоящего из углеродных нанотрубок: “The Graphene Times”, Nature Nanotechnology 14, no. 10, article 903 (October 3, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41565-019-0561-4; “Nova: Car bon Nanotubes”, Mangefox, YouTube video, January 28, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19nzPt62UPg; Elizabeth Gibney, “Biggest Carbon-Nanotube Chip Yet Says ‘Hello, World!’”, Nature, August 28, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-02576-7; Haifei Zhan et al., “The Best Features of Diamond Nanothread for Nanofibre Applications”, Nature Communications 8, article 14863 (March 17, 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038 /ncomms14863; Haifei Zhan et al., “High Density Mechanical Energy Storage with Carbon Nanothread Bundle”, Nature Communications 11, article 1905 (April 20, 2020), https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15807-7; Keigo Otsuka et al., “Deterministic Transfer of Optical-Quality Carbon Nanotubes for Atomically Defined Technology”, Nature Communications 12, article 3138 (May 25, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23413-4.

80. По-видимому, наиболее подробное исследование того, как можно осуществить механосинтез на базе алмазоидов, описано в статье Роберта Фрайтаса и Ральфа Меркла 2008 года о наборе реакций, необходимых для работы универсального наноассемблера. См. Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, “A Minimal Toolset for Positional Diamond Mechanosynthesis”, Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 5, no. 5 (May 2008): 760–862, https://doi.org/10.1166/jctn.2008.2531, mirrored at http://www.molecularassembler.com/Papers/MinToolset.pdf.

81. Masayuki Endo and Hiroshi Sugiyama, “DNA Origami Nanomachines”, Molecules 23, no. 7 (article 1766), July 18, 2018, https://doi.org/10.3390/molecules23071766; Fei Wang et al., “Programming Motions of DNA Origami Nanomachines”, Small 15, no. 26, article 1900013 (March 25, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1002/smll.201900013.

82. Suping Li et al., “A DNA Nanorobot Functions as a Cancer Therapeutic in Response to a Molecular Trigger In Vivo”, Nature Biotechnology 36, no. 3 (February 12, 2018): 258–64, https://doi.org/10.1038/nbt.4071; Stephanie Lauback et al., “Real-Time Magnetic Actuation of DNA Nanodevices via Modular Integration with Stiff Micro-Mevers”, Nature Communications 9, no. 1, article 1446 (April 13, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03601-5.

83. Liang Zhang, Vanesa Marcos, and David A. Leigh, “Molecular Machines with BioInspired Mechanisms”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 38 (February 26, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1712788115.

84. Christian E. Schafmeister, “Molecular Lego”, Scientific American, February 2007, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/molecular-lego.

85. Matthias Koch et al., “Spin Read-Out in Atomic Qubits in an All-Epitaxial Three-Dimensional Transistor”, Nature Nanotechnology 14, no. 2 (January 7, 2019): 137–40, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41565-018-0338-1.

86. Mukesh Tripathi et al., “Electron-Beam Manipulation of Silicon Dopants in Graphene”, Nano Letters 18, no. 8 (June 27, 2018): 5319–23, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.nanolett.8b02406.

87. John N. Randall et al., “Digital Atomic Scale Fabrication an Inverse Moore’s Law – A Path to Atomically Precise Manufacturing”, Micro and Nano Engineering 1 (November 2018): 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mne.2018.11.001.

88. Roshan Achal et al., “Lithography for Robust and Editable Atomic-Scale Silicon Devices and Memories”, Nature Communications 9, no. 1, article 2778 (July 23, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05171-y.

89. Chalmers University of Technology, “Graphene and Other Carbon Nanomaterials Can Replace Scarce Metals”, Phys.org, September 19, 2017, https://phys.org/news/2017-09-graphene-carbon-nanomaterials-scarce-metals.html; Rickard Arvisson and Björn A. Sandén, “Carbon Nanomaterials as Potential Substitutes for Scarce Metals”, Journal of Cleaner Production 156 (July 10, 2017): 253–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.04.048.

90. K. Eric Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013), 168–72.

91. Paul Sullivan, “A Battle over Diamonds: Made by Nature or in a Lab?”, New York Times, February 9, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/your-money/synthetic-diamond-jewelry.html.

92. Milton Esterow, “Art Experts Warn of a Surging Market in Fake Prints”, New York Times, January 24, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/arts/design/fake-art-prints.html; Kelly Crow, “Leonardo da Vinci Painting ‘Salvator Mundi’ Smashes Records with $450.3 Million Sale”, Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles /leonardo-da-vinci-painting-salvator-mundi-sells-for-450-3-million-1510794281.

93. Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever (Emmaus, PA: Rodale, 2009).

94. Больше информации о последних исследованиях в биогеронтологии, нацеленных на понимание и устранение механизмов старения: “Why Age? Should We End Aging Forever?”, Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell, YouTube video, October 20, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoJsr4IwCm4; “How to Cure Aging – During Your Lifetime?”, Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell, YouTube video, November 3, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjdpR-TY6QU; “Daphne Koller, Chief Computing Officer, Calico Labs”, CB Insights, YouTube video, January 18, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EIZ8wJYAEA; “Ray Kurzweil – Physical Immortality”, Aging Reversed, YouTube video, January 3, 2017, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=BUExzREe9oo; Peter H. Diamandis, “Nanorobots: Where We Are Today and Why Their Future Has Amazing Potential”, SingularityHub, May 16, 2016, https://singu larityhub.com/2016/05/16/nanorobots-where-we-are-today-and-why-their-future-has-amazing-potential.

95. Nicola Davis, “Human Lifespan Has Hit Its Natural Limit, Research Suggests”, Guardian, October 5, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/oct/05/human-lifespan-has-hit-its-natural-limit-research-suggests; Craig R. Whitney, “Jeanne Calment, World’s Elder, Dies at 122”, New York Times, August 5, 1997, https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/05/world/jeanne-calment-world-s-elder-dies-at-122.html.

96. “Actuarial Life Table”, US Social Security Administration, последняя проверка доступности 20 октября 2022 года, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html.

97. France Meslé and Jacques Vallin, “Causes of Death at Very Old Ages, Including for Supercentenarians”, in Exceptional Lifespans, ed. Heiner Maier et al. (Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2020): 72–82, https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-030-49970-9.pdf?pdf=button.

98. “Aubrey De Grey – Living to 1,000 Years Old”, Aging Reversed, YouTube video, May 26, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkMPZ8obByw; “One-on-One: An Investigative Interview with Aubrey de Grey—44th St. Gallen Symposium”, StGallenSymposium, YouTube video, May 8, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkBfT_EPBIo; “Aubrey de Grey, PhD: ‘The Science of Curing Aging’”, Talks at Google, YouTube video, January 4, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ARUQ5LoUo.

99. “A Reimagined Research Strategy for Aging”, SENS Research Foundation, accessed December 27, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20221118080039/https://www.sens.org/our-research/intro-to-sens-research.

100. “Longevity: Reaching Escape Velocity”, Foresight Institute, YouTube video, December 12, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4b19vZ57U4.

101. Richard Zijdeman and Filipa Ribeira da Silva, “Life Expectancy at Birth (Total)”, IISH Data Collection, V1 (2015), https://hdl.handle.net/10622/LKYT53.

102. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “The Life-Saving Future of Medicine”, Guardian, March 28, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/what-is-nano/nano-and-the-life-saving-future-of-medicine.

103. Jacqueline Krim, “Friction at the Nano-Scale”, Physics World, February 2, 2005, https://physicsworld.com/a/friction-at-the-nano-scale.

104. Rose Eveleth, “There Are 37.2 Trillion Cells in Your Body”, Smithsonian Magazine, October 24, 2013, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/there-are-372-trillion-cells-in-your-body-4941473.

105. Простым языком о том, как работают гормоны и иммунная система: “How the Immune System Actually Works – Immune”, Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell, YouTube video, August 10, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXfEK8G8CUI; “How Does Your Immune System Work? – Emma Bryce”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, January 8, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSRJfaAYkW4; “How Do Your Hormones Work? – Emma Bryce”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, June 21, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SPRPkLoKp8.

106. Простым языком о том, как работают легкие: “How Do Lungs Work? – Emma Bryce”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, November 24, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NUxvJS0k.

107. Простым языком о том, как работают почки: “How Do Your Kidneys Work? – Emma Bryce”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, February 9, 2015, https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=FN3MFhYPWWo.

108. Простым языком о том, как работает пищеварительная система: “How Your Digestive System Works – Emma Bryce”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, December 14, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og5xAdC8EUI.

109. Простым языком о том, зачем нужна и как работает поджелудочная железа: “What Does the Pancreas Do? – Emma Bryce”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, February 19, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dgoeYPoE-0.

110. George Dvorsky, “FDA Approves World’s First Automated Insulin Pump for Diabetics”, Gizmodo, September 29, 2016, https://gizmodo.com/fda-approves-worlds-first-automated-insulin-pump-for-di-1787227150.

111. Простым языком о том, какую роль играют гормоны в развитии диабета: “Role of Hormones in Diabetes”, Match Health, YouTube video, December 6, 2013, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=sPwoMm9cv1M; Matthew McPheeters, “What Is Diabetes Mellitus? | Endocrine System Diseases | NCLEX-RN”, Khan Academy Medicine, YouTube video, May 14, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulxyWZf7BWc.

112. Краткий рассказ без сложных терминов о взаимосвязи между сном и гормонами: Hormone Health Network, “Sleep and Circadian Rhythm”, Hormone.org, Endocrine Society, June 2019, https://www.hormone.org/your-health-and-hormones/sleep-and-circadian-rhythm.

113. Подробнее о рецидиве рака и раковых стволовых клетках: “Why Is It So Hard to Cure Cancer? – Kyuson Yun”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, October 10, 2017, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=h2rR77VsF5c; “Recurrent Cancer: When Cancer Comes Back”, National Cancer Institute, January 18, 2016, https://www.cancer.gov/types/recurrent-cancer; Kyle Davis, “Investigating Why Cancer Comes Back”, National Human Genome Research Institute, September 8, 2015, https://www.genome.gov/news/news-release/Investigating-why-cancer-comes-back.

114. Zuoren Yu et al., “Cancer Stem Cells”, International Journal of Biochemical Cell Biology 44, no. 12 (December 2012): 2144–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocel.2012.08.022.

115. “How Does Chemotherapy Work? – Hyunsoo Joshua No”, TED-Ed, YouTube video, December 5, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgWQCGX3MOk; “Why People with Cancer Are More Likely to Get Infections”, American Cancer Society, March 13, 2020, https://www.cancer.org/treatment/treatments-and-side-effects/physical-side-effects/low-blood-counts/infections/why-people-with-cancer-are-at-risk.html.

116. Nirali Shah and Terry J. Fry, “Mechanisms of Resistance to CAR T Cell Therapy”, Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology 16 (March 5, 2019): 372–85, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41571-019-0184-6; Robert Vander Velde et al., “Resistance to Targeted Therapies as a Multifactorial, Gradual Adaptation to Inhibitor Specific Selective Pressures”, Nature Communications 11, article 2393 (May 14, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16212-w.

117. Отличное простое объяснение процесса клеточного деления: Hank Green, “Mitosis: Splitting Up Is Complicated – Crash Course Biology #12”, CrashCourse, YouTube video, April 16, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0k-enzoeOM.

118. Краткое введение в CRISPR, один из самых перспективных подходов к редактированию генома на сегодняшний день: Brad Plumer et al., “A Simple Guide to CRISPR, One of the Biggest Science Stories of the Decade”, Vox, updated December 27, 2018, https://www.vox.com/2018/7/23/17594864/crispr-cas9-gene-editing.

119. Eveleth, “There Are 37.2 Trillion Cells in Your Body”.

120. Ознакомительное видео об этом процессе: “Regulation of Gene Expression: Operons, Epigenetics, and Transcription Factors”, Professor Dave Explains, YouTube video, October 15, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9jhg90A7Lw.

121. Bert M. Verheijen and Fred W. van Leeuwen, “Commentary: The Landscape of Transcription Errors in Eukaryotic Cells”, Frontiers in Genetics 8, article 219 (December 14, 2017), https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2017.00219.

122. Patricia Mroczek, “Nanoparticle Chomps Away Plaques That Cause Heart Attacks”, MSUToday, Michigan State University, January 27, 2020, https://msutoday.msu.edu/news /2020/nanoparticle-chomps-away-plaques-that-cause-heart-attacks; Alyssa M. Flores, Nature Nanotechnology 15, no. 2 (January 27, 2020): 154–61, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41565-019-0619-3; Ira Tabas and Andrew H. Lichtman, “Monocyte-Macrophages and T Cells in Atherosclerosis”, Immunity 47, no. 4 (October 17, 2017): 621–34, https://doi.org/10.1016 /j.immuni.2017.09.008.

123. American Stroke Association “Understanding Diagnosis and Treatment of Cryptogenic Stroke: A Health Care Professional Guide”, American Heart Association, 2019, https://web.archive.org/web/20211023144019/https://www.stroke.org/-/media/stroke-files/cryptogenic-professional-resource-files/crytopgenic-professional-guide-ucm-477051.pdf.

124. Занятное и несложное видео о фолдинге белков: “Protein Structure and Folding”, Amoeba Sisters, YouTube video, September 24, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= hok2hyED9go.

125. Максимальная (чисто теоретически) частота возбуждения биологических нейронов около 1000 Гц, в то время как наноразмерная механическая система Ральфа Меркла предположительно сможет достигать 100 МГц, то есть окажется в 100 000 раз быстрее. Предел прочности на разрыв у коллагеновых волокон находится в районе 90 МПа; многослойные углеродные нанотрубки в экспериментах выдерживали усилие примерно в 63 ГПа, а нанонити из алмазоида – 98 ГПа (при том что теоретический максимум для алмазоида приблизительно 100 ГПа). Все эти числа на три порядка превосходят величину прочности коллагена. См. “Neuron Firing Rates in Humans”, AI Impacts; Ralph C. Merkle et al., “Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints”, 24–27; Yehe Liu, Roberto Ballarini, and Steven J. Eppell, “Tension Tests on Mammalian Collagen Fibrils”, Interface Focus 6, no. 1, article 20150080 (February 6, 2016), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2015.0080; Min-Feng Yu et al., “Strength and Breaking Mechanism of Multiwalled Carbon Nanotubes Under Tensile Load”, Science 287, no. 5453 (January 28, 2000): 637–40, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5453.637; Amit Banerjee et al., “Ultralarge Elastic Deformation of Nanoscale Diamond”, Science 360, no. 6386 (April 20, 2018): 300–302, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar4165; Drexler, Nanosystems, 24–35, 142–43.

126. Robert A. Freitas, “Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell”, Artificial Cells, Blood Substitutes, and Biotechnology 26, no. 4 (1998): 411–30, https://doi.org /10.3109/10731199809117682.

127. Freitas, “Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology”, 426; Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Respirocytes: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology”, Foresight Institute/Institute for Molecular Manufacturing,” April 17, 1996, https://web.archive.org/web/20210509160649/https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respi rocytes.php.

128. Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers”; Drachman, “Do We Have Brain to Spare?”; Hervé Lemaître et al., “Normal Age-Related Brain Morphometric Changes: Non-uniformity Across Cortical Thickness, Surface Area and Grey Matter Volume?”, Neurobiology of Aging 33, no. 3 (March 2012): 617.e1–617.e9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neurobio laging.2010.07.013; Merkle et al., “Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints”, 24–27.

129. “Neuron Firing Rates in Humans”, AI Impacts; Merkle et al., “Mechanical Computing Systems Using Only Links and Rotary Joints”, 24–27; Drexler, Nanosystems, 370–71.

130. Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers”; Drachman, “Do We Have Brain to Spare?”; “Firing Behavior and Network Activity of Single Neurons in Human Epileptic Hypothalamic Hamartoma”, Frontiers in Neurology 2, no. 210 (December 27, 2013), https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2013.00210; Ernest L. Abel, Behavioral Teratogenesis and Behavioral Mutagenesis: A Primer in Abnormal Development (New York: Plenum Press, 1989), 113, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=gV0rBgAAQBAJ; Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap, technical report 2008-3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University (2008), 80, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf; Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

131. Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers”; Drachman, “Do We Have Brain to Spare?”; “Firing Behavior and Network Activity of Single Neurons in Human Epileptic Hypothalamic Hamartoma”; Abel, Behavioral Teratogenesis and Behavioral Mutagenesis; Sandberg and Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation, 80; see the appendix for the sources used for all the cost-of-computation calculations in this book.

Глава 7. Предстоящие трудности

1. Bill McKibben, “How Much Is Enough? The Environmental Movement as a Pivot Point in Human History”, Harvard Seminar on Environmental Values, October 18, 2000, 11, http://docshare04.docshare.tips/files/9552/95524564.pdf.

2. Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance (New York: Quill, 1999, 26; first published by William Morrow, 1974). В своей работе Пёрсиг объединил восточные и западные идеи и разработал философскую концепцию, известную как «Метафизика качества», которая изучает, как жизненный опыт людей порождает знания и идеи. Она стала одной из самых продаваемых философских книг всех времен. См. также Tim Adams, “The Interview: Robert Pirsig”, Guardian, November 19, 2006, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2006 /nov/19/fiction.

3. Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces”, Federation of American Scientists, March 2, 2022, https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces.

4. Hans M. Kristensen, “Alert Status of Nuclear Weapons”, Briefing to Short Course on Nuclear Weapon and Related Security Issues, George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, April 21, 2017, 2, https://uploads.fas.org/2014/05/Brief2017_GWU_2s.pdf.

5. Вы можете сами оценить последствия ядерной войны с помощью увлекательного онлайн-сервиса Nukemap, разработанного Алексом Веллерстейном и доступного по адресу: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap. См. также Kyle Mizokami, “335 Million Dead: If America Launched an All-Out Nuclear War”, National Interest, March 13, 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/335-million-dead-if-america-launched-all-out-nuclear-war-57262; Dylan Matthews, “40 Years Ago Today, One Man Saved Us from World-Ending Nuclear War”, Vox, September 26, 2023, https:// www.vox.com/2018/9/26/17905796/nuclear-war-1983-stanislav-petrov-soviet-union; Owen B. Toon et al., “Rapidly Expanding Nuclear Arsenals in Pakistan and India Portend Regional and Global Catastrophe”, Science Advances 5, no. 10 (October 2, 2019), https:// advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478.

6. Seth Baum, “The Risk of Nuclear Winter”, Federation of American Scientists, May 29, 2015, https://fas.org/pir-pubs/risk-nuclear-winter; Bryan Walsh, “What Could a Nuclear War Do to the Climate – and Humanity?”, Vox, August 17, 2022, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/17/23306861/nuclear-winter-war-climate-change-food-starvation-existential-risk-russia-united-states.

7. Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom, Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, technical report 2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University (2008): 1, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf.

8. Kristensen and Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces”; Arms Control Association, “Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance”, Arms Control Association, June 2023, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat.

9. Заслуживающий внимания обзор международных соглашений в отношении ядерного оружия: “U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreements at a Glance”, Arms Control Association, August 2019, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements.

10. Max Roser and Mohamed Nagdy, “Nuclear Weapons”, Our World in Data, 2019, https:// ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons; Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook”, Federation of American Scientists, 2019, https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia; Kristensen and Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces”.

11. Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under Water, October 10, 1963, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20480/volume-480-I-6964-English.pdf.

12. Полезная подборка международных законов, касающихся этой темы: “International Legal Agreements Relevant to Space Weapons”, Union of Concerned Scientists, February 11, 2004, https:// www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/space-weapons/international-legal-agreements.

13. Ученые осознали это несколько десятилетий назад. См., например, Martin E. Hellman, “Arms Race Can Only Lead to One End: If We Don’t Change Our Thinking, Someone Will Drop the Big One”, Houston Post, April 4, 1985, available in very similar form at https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/opinion/inevitability.html.

14. Кратко для получения четкого представления о том, как работает система взаимного гарантированного уничтожения, см. “Mutually Assured Destruction: When the Only Winning Move Is Not to Play”, Farnam Street, June 2017, https://fs.blog/2017/06/mutually-assured-destruction.

15. Подробнее о системах противоракетной обороны США: “Current U.S. Missile Defense Programs at a Glance”, Arms Control Association, August 2019, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/usmissiledefense.

16. Alan Robock and Owen Brian Toon, “Self-Assured Destruction: The Climate Impacts of Nuclear War”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 68, no. 5 (September 1, 2012): 66–74, https://thebulletin.org/2012/09/self-assured-destruction-the-climate-impacts-of-nuclear-war.

17. Valerie Insinna, “Russia’s Nuclear Underwater Drone Is Real and in the Nuclear Posture Review”, DefenseNews, January 12, 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/01/12/russias-nuclear-underwater-drone-is-real-and-in-the-nuclear-posture-review; Douglas Barrie and Henry Boyd, “Burevestnik: US Intelligence and Russia’s ‘Unique’ Cruise Missile”, International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 5, 2021, https://www.iiss.org/blogs /military-balance/2021/02/burevestnik-russia-cruise-missile.

18. Richard Stone, “‘National Pride Is at Stake.’ Russia, China, United States Race to Build Hypersonic Weapons”, Science, January 8, 2020, https://www.science.org/content/article/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons.

19. Joshua M. Pearce and David C. Denkenberger, “A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities”, Safety 4, no. 2 (2018): 25, https://www.mdpi.com/2313-576X/4/2/25.

20. “Safety Assistance System Warns of Dirty Bombs”, Fraunhofer, September 1, 2017, https://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2017/september/safety-assistance-system-warns-of-dirty-bombs-.html.

21. Jaganath Sankaran, “A Different Use for Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Weapons Command and Control”, War on the Rocks, April 25, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/a-different-use-for-artificial-intelligence-in-nuclear-weapons-command-and-control; Jill Hruby and M. Nina Miller, “Assessing and Managing the Benefits and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear-Weapon Systems”, Nuclear Threat Initiative, August 26, 2021, https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/assessing-and-managing-the-benefits-and-risks-of-artificial-intelligence-in-nuclear-weapon-systems.

22. Краткий рассказ о Черной смерти и других эпидемиях чумы: Jenny Howard, “Plague, Explained”, National Geographic, August 20, 2019, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/the-plague.

23. “Historical Estimates of World Population”, US Census Bureau, July 5, 2018, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html.

24. Elizabeth Pennisi, “Black Death Left a Mark on Human Genome”, Science, February 3, 2014, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/02/black-death-left-mark-human-genome.

25. В генетической терапии, например, ради благих целей часто используются модифицированные вирусы. Краткий обзор этой области: “Gene Therapy Inside Out”, US Food and Drug Administration, YouTube video, December 19, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbJasFgJkLg.

26. Обзор опасностей, связанных с биотерроризмом: R. Daniel Bressler and Chris Bakerlee, “‘Designer Bugs’: How the Next Pandemic Might Come from a Lab”, Vox, December 6, 2018, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/12/6/18127430/superbugs-biotech-pathogens-biorisk-pandemic.

27. Подробнее об асиломарской конференции и принятых положениях: M. J. Peterson, “Asilomar Conference on Laboratory Precautions When Conducting Recombinant DNA Research – Case Summary”, International Dimensions of Ethics Education in Science and Engineering Case Study Series, June 2010, https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1023&context=edethicsinscience.

28. Alan McHughen and Stuart Smyth, “US Regulatory System for Genetically Modified [Genetically Modified Organism (GMO), rDNA or Transgenic] Crop Cultivars”, Plant BiotechnologyJournal6, no. 1 (January 2008): 2–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467–7652.2007.00300.x.

29. Подробнее о работе Международной группы быстрого реагирования: Tasha Stehling-Ariza et al., “Establishment of CDC Global Rapid Response Team to Ensure Global Health Security”, Emerging Infectious Diseases 23, no. 13 (December 2017), https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article /23/13/17-0711_article; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Global Rapid Response Team Expands Scope to U.S. Response”, Updates from the Field 30 (Fall 2020), https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/healthprotection/fieldupdates/fall-2020/grrt-response-covid.html.

30. Подробности о деятельности НМОБИ и НИИИЗА США по борьбе с биотерроризмом можно узнать на веб-сайтах этих организаций: https://www.nicbr.mil и https://www.usamriid.army.mil.

31. Françoise Barré-Sinoussi et al., “Isolation of a T-Lymphotropic Retrovirus from a Patient at Risk for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)”, Science 220, no. 4599 (May 20, 1983): 868–71, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1690359; Jean K. Carr et al., “Full-Length Sequence and Mosaic Structure of a Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Isolate from Thailand”, Journal of Virology 70, no. 9 (August 31, 1996): 5935–43, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC190613; Kristen Philipkoski, “SARS Gene Sequence Unveiled”, Wired, April 15, 2003, https://www.wired.com/2003/04/sars-gene-sequence-unveiled; Cameron Walker, “Rapid Sequencing Method Can Identify New Viruses Within Hours”, Discover, December 11, 2013, https://web.archive.org/web/20201111180212; “Rapid Sequencing of RNA Virus Genomes”, Nanopore Technologies, 2018, https://nanoporetech.com/resource-centre/rapid-sequencing-rna-virus-genomes.

32. Darren J. Obbard et al., “The Evolution of RNAi as a Defence Against Viruses and Transposable Elements”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364, no. 1513 (99–115), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2592633.

33. Краткое объяснение принципа действия классических вакцин на базе антигена: “Understanding How Vaccines Work”, Centers for Disease Control, July 2018, https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/conversations/understanding-vacc-work.html.

34. Ray Kurzweil, “AI-Powered Biotech Can Help Deploy a Vaccine in Record Time”, Wired, May 19, 2020, https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-ai-powered-biotech-can-help-deploy-a-vaccine-in-record-time.

35. Asha Barbaschow, “Moderna Leveraging Its ‘AI Factory’ to Revolutionise the Way Diseases Are Treated”, ZDNet, May 17, 2021, https://www.zdnet.com/article/moderna-leveraging-its-ai-factory-to-revolutionise-the-way-diseases-are-treated.

36. Barbaschow, “Moderna Leveraging Its ‘AI Factory’”; “Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine”, US Food and Drug Administration, December 18, 2020, https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine.

37. Philip Ball, “The Lightning-Fast Quest for COVID Vaccines – and What It Means for Other Diseases”, Nature 589, no. 7840 (December 18, 2020): 16–18, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03626-1.

38. Доводы за и против этой гипотезы хорошо представлены в следующих материалах: Amy Maxmen and Smriti Mallapaty, “The COVID Lab-Leak Hypothesis: What Scientists Do and Don’t Know”, Nature 594, no. 7863 (June 8, 2021): 313–15, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3; Jon Cohen, “Call of the Wild”, Science 373, no. 6559 (September 2, 2021): 1072–77, https://www.science.org/content/article/why-many-scientists-say-unlikely-sars-cov-2-originated-lab-leak.

39. James Pearson and Ju-Min Park, “North Korea Overcomes Poverty, Sanctions with Cut-Price Nukes”, Reuters, January 11, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-money-idUSKCN0UP1G820160111.

40. Lord Lyell, “Chemical and Biological Weapons: The Poor Man’s Bomb”, draft general report, Science and Technology Committee (96) 8, North Atlantic Assembly, October 4, 1996, https://irp.fas.org/threat/an253stc.htm.

41. United Nations Secretary-General, “Chemical and Bacteriological (Biological) Weapons and the Effects of Their Possible Use: Report of the Secretary-General”, United Nations, August 1969; discussed in Gregory Koblentz, “Pathogens as Weapons: The International Security Implications of Biological Warfare”, International Security 28, no. 3 (Winter 2003/ 2004): 88, https://doi.org/10.1162/016228803773100084.

42. Здравый и содержательный обзор потенциальных опасностей нанотехнологий: Louis A. Del Monte, Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2017).

43. K. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1986), 172.

44. Ralph C. Merkle, “Self Replicating Systems and Low Cost Manufacturing”, Zyvex.com, accessed March 5, 2023, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNATO.html.

45. Йинон М. Бар-Он, Роб Филлипс и Рон Майло подсчитали, что все живые существа на планете, вместе взятые, содержат 550 гигатонн углерода (не считая подземных запасов в виде залежей угля, которые тоже образовались из живых организмов). Итак, у нас есть 5,5 × 10¹⁷ граммов углерода. Учитывая, что молярная масса углерода равна 12,011, можно вычислить количество вещества по формуле 5,5 × 10¹⁷ / 12,011 = 4,6 × 10¹⁶ моль. Зная эту величину, мы можем найти количество атомов углерода во всей биомассе на планете: (4,6 × 10¹⁶) × (6,022 × 10²³) (число Авогадро) = 2,8 × 10⁴⁰ атомов. На самом деле органического углерода может быть намного больше, если учесть его количество в атмосфере и почве, а также залежи углеводородов под землей, но нельзя точно сказать, до какой части этих запасов смогут добраться нанороботы в случае, если сценарий «серой слизи» будет реализован. См. Yinon M. Bar-On et al., “The Biomass Distribution on Earth”, PNAS 115, no. 25 (June 19, 2018): 6506–11, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711842115.

46. По мнению эксперта по нанотехнологиям Роба Фрайтаса, самовоспроизводящийся робот будет состоять приблизительно из 70 миллионов атомов углерода. Это пока предположение, но за неимением лучшей оценки можно считать эту величину ориентиром при обсуждении рассматриваемого сценария. См. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations”, Foresight Institute, April 2000, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Ecophagy.htm.

47. Эта оценка выведена в предположении, что углерод распределен более-менее равномерно и непрерывно. В реальности многое будет зависеть от конкретных условий на месте. Кое-где запасы углерода будут исчерпаны меньшим числом поколений, в других зонах потребуется больше нанороботов, чтобы поглотить весь углерод, и этот процесс займет несколько больше времени.

48. Freitas, “Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators”.

49. Freitas, “Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators”.

50. Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines (Austin, TX: Landes Bioscience, 2004), http://www.molecularassembler.com/KSRM/4.11.3.3.htm.

51. Ознакомиться с обновленными руководящими принципами и некоторой полезной информацией о них можно в: Neil Jacobstein, “Foresight Guidelines for Responsible Nanotechnology Development”, Foresight Institute, 2006, http://www.imm.org/policy/guidelines.

52. Больше выразительных терминов типа «серой и голубой слизи», которыми названы различные явления в сфере нанотехнологий, можно найти в: Chris Phoenix, “Goo vs. Paste”, Nanotechnology Now, September 2002, http://www.nanotech-now.com/goo.htm.

53. Freitas, “Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators”.

54. Bill Joy, “Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us”, Wired, April 1, 2000, https://www.wired.com/2000/04/joy-2.

55. World Health Organization, “WHO Coronavirus Dashboard”, World Health Organization, accessed October 16, 2023, https://covid19.who.int.

56. Miles Brundage et al., The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation (Oxford, UK: Future of Humanity Institute, February 2018), https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/3d82daa4-97fe-4096-9c6b-376b92c619de/downloads/MaliciousUseofAI.pdf?ver=1553030594217.

57. Evan Hubinger, “Clarifying Inner Alignment Terminology”, AI Alignment Forum, November 9, 2020, https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology; Paul Christiano, “Current Work in AI Alignment”, Effective Altruism, accessed March 5, 2023, https://www.effectivealtruism.org/articles/paul-christiano-current-work-in-ai-alignment.

58. Hubinger, “Clarifying Inner Alignment Terminology”; Christiano, “Current Work in AI Alignment”.

59. Более-менее подробное объяснение концепции обучения через имитацию: Beth Barnes, “Imitative Generalisation (AKA ‘Learning the Prior’)”, AI Alignment Forum, January 9, 2021, https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/JKj5Krff5oKMb8TjT/imitative-generalisation-aka-learning-the-prior-1.

60. Geoffrey Irving and Dario Amodei, “AI Safety via Debate”, OpenAI, May 3, 2018, https://openai.com/blog/debate.

61. Важная серия заметок с объяснением концепции итерационного усиления от ее основного автора: Paul Christiano, “Iterated Amplification”, AI Alignment Forum, October 29, 2018, https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/EmDuGeRw749sD3GKd.

62. Подробнее о технических сложностях обеспечения безопасности работы с ИИ: Dario Amodei et al., “Concrete Problems in AI Safety”, arXiv:1606.06565v2 [cs.AI], July 25, 2016, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf.

63. Асиломарские принципы в сфере ИИ, а также постоянно обновляемый список подписантов: “Asilomar AI Principles”, Future of Life Institute, 2019, https://future oflife.org/ai-principles.

64. Винт Серф, один из создателей интернета, написал важную статью о роли агентства DARPA в создании Всемирной сети. См. Vint Cerf, “A Brief History of the Internet and Related Networks”, Internet Society, последняя проверка доступности 5 марта 2023 года, https://www.internetsociety.org/internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet-related-networks.

65. “Asilomar AI Principles”, Future of Life Institute.

66. “Lethal Autonomous Weapons Pledge”, Future of Life Institute, 2019, https://futureoflife.org/lethal-autonomous-weapons-pledge.

67. Kelley M. Sayler, “Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems” (report IF11150, Congressional Research Service, updated November 14, 2022), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11150.

68. Department of Defense Directive 3000.09—Autonomy in Weapon Systems, US Department of Defense, November 21, 2012 (effective January 25, 2023), https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/DD/issuances/dodd/300009p.pdf.

69. Erico Guizzo and Evan Ackerman, “Do We Want Robot Warriors to Decide Who Lives or Dies?”, IEEE Spectrum, May 31, 2016, https://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies.

70. Guizzo and Ackerman, “Do We Want Robot Warriors to Decide Who Lives or Dies?”.

71. Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, “Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy”, US Department of State, February 16, 2023, https://www.state.gov/political-declaration-on-responsible-military-use-of-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomy.

72. Brian M. Carney, “Air Combat by Remote Control”, Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2008, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121055519404984109.

73. “Supporters of a Ban on Killer Robots”, Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, updated May 18, 2021, https://web.archive.org/web/20210518133318/https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/en dorsers.

74. Brian Stauffer, “Stopping Killer Robots: Country Positions on Banning Fully Autonomous Weapons and Retaining Human Control”, Human Rights Watch, August 10, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/report/2020/08/10/stopping-killer-robots/country-positions-banning-fully-autonomous-weapons-and.

75. Для лучшего понимания проблемы непрозрачности работы ИИ можно рассмотреть аналогичную ситуацию в математике, а именно: разницу между нахождением решения задачи и проверкой, что предоставленное решение верно. В некоторых случаях человеку не составит труда убедиться, что ответ, предоставленный машиной, действительно правильный. Например, если программе дана команда найти наибольшее нечетное число, не превосходящее 1 000 000, то несложно увидеть, что 999 999 удовлетворяет заданным требованиям. С другой стороны, если мы попросим компьютер найти наибольшее простое число, не превосходящее 1 000 000, нам очень сложно будет убедиться, что 999 983 и вправду простое. Аналогично, если программа дает ответ на основе алгоритма, содержащего четко сформулированные программистами критерии, можно легко «заглянуть под капот» и узнать, какие конкретно факторы повлияли на решение. Например, ИИ, который оценивает ход игры го на основании заданных правил, может сразу сказать оператору, почему выбранный ход ему кажется наилучшим. Но в случае нейросетевого подхода наподобие глубокого обучения ответ «почему», как правило, недоступен не только оператору, но и самому ИИ. По-видимому, универсального метода для получения понятной человеку мотивировки решения нейросети не существует. Подробнее о так называемой «проблеме черного ящика» в сфере ИИ: Will Knight, “The Dark Secret at the Heart of AI”, MIT Technology Review, April 11, 2017, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai.

76. Paul Christiano, “Eliciting Latent Knowledge”, AI Alignment, Medium, February 25, 2022, https://ai-alignment.com/eliciting-latent-knowledge-f977478608fc.

77. John-Clark Levin and Matthijs M. Maas, “Roadmap to a Roadmap: How Could We Tell When AGI Is a ‘Manhattan Project’ Away?”, arXiv:2008.04701 [cs.CY], August 6, 2020, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.04701.pdf.

78. “The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1–2 November 2023”, UK Government, November 1, 2023, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023.

79. Что касается долгосрочной тенденции к снижению уровня насилия в мире, в прекрасной книге моего друга Стивена Пинкера можно найти множество интересных соображений, основывающихся на анализе данных. См. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature (New York: Viking, 2011).

80. Хороший обзор антипрогрессивных настроений, подпитываемых страхом перед опасностями, которые несут новые технологии: Lawrence Lessig, “Stamping Out Good Science”, Wired, July 1, 2004, https://www.wired.com/2004/07/stamping-out-good-science.

81. Walter Suza, “I Fight Anti-GMO Fears in Africa to Combat Hunger”, The Conversation, February 7, 2019, https://theconversation.com/i-fight-anti-gmo-fears-in-africa-to-combat-hunger-109632; Editorial Board, “There’s No Choice: We Must Grow GM Crops Now”, Guardian, March 16, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/16/gm-crops-world-food-famine-starvation.

82. Обзор характерных возражений: Joël de Rosnay, “Artificial Intelligence: Transhumanism Is Narcissistic. We Must Strive for Hyperhumanism”, Crossroads to the Future, April 26, 2015, https://web.archive.org/web/20230322182945/https://www.crossroads-to-the-future.com/articles/artificial-intelligence-transhumanism-is-narcissistic-we-must-strive-for-hyperhumanism; Wesley J. Smith, “Jeffrey Epstein, a Narcissistic Transhumanist”, National Review, August 1, 2019, https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/jeffrey-epstein-a-narcissistic-transhumanist; Sarah Spiekermann, “Why Transhumanism Will Be a Blight on Humanity and Why It Must Be Opposed”, The Privacy Surgeon, July 6, 2017, https://web.archive.org/web/20180212062523/http://www.privacysurgeon.org/blog/incision/why-transhumanism-will-be-a-blight-on-humanity-and-why-it-must-be-opposed.

83. В 2021 году мировое потребление энергии составило 595,15 эксаджоулей, или 165 320 тераватт-часов, что эквивалентно круглогодичной выработке 18,8 тераватта. Для сравнения, поток солнечной энергии, достигающий нашей планеты, равен примерно 173 000–175 000 ТВт. По оценкам Сандийских национальных лабораторий поверхности Земли достигает поток в 89 300 ТВт, из которых 58 300 ТВт можно преобразовать в электричество с помощью солнечных панелей. 7500 ТВт, в свою очередь, можно получить на хорошо освещенных участках планеты, применяя технологии 2006 года. Построив солнечные электростанции, обеспечивающие получение всего лишь четверти процента этой доступной мощности, мы покроем все наши потребности в энергии на сегодняшний день, причем не только электрической, но и вырабатываемой благодаря сжиганию ископаемого топлива. См. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 (London: BP, 2022), https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf, 9; Jeff Tsao et al., “Solar FAQs”, US Department of Energy (working paper SAND 2006-2818P, Sandia National Laboratories 2006), 9, https://web.archive.org/web/20200424084337/https://www.sandia.gov/~jytsao/Solar%20FAQs.pdf.

84. Два отличных обзора мнений ведущих мировых футурологов об экзистенциальных рисках, то есть вероятности событий, которые могут привести к полному вымиранию человечества: Sebastian Farquhar et al., Existential Risk: Diplomacy and Governance, Global Priorities Project, 2017, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-2017-01-23.pdf; Nick Bostrom, “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, Journal of Evolution and Technology 9, no. 1 (2002), https:// www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html.