1. John Fernald, Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper 20248, issue date June 2014, available at NBER, www.nber.org/papers/w20248.

2. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, Has the Business Cycle Changed, and Why? NBER Macroeconomics Annual 17 (2002): 159–230, available at National Bureau of Economic Research, www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11075/c11075.pdf.

3. Amanda Robb, Anatomy of a Fake News Scandal, Rolling Stone, November 16, 2017, www.rollingstone.com/feature/anatomy-of-a-fake-news-scandal-125877.

4. Barack Obama, 2004 Democratic National Convention Speech, PBS NewsHour, July 27, 2004, www.pbs.org/newshour/show/barack-obamas-keynote-address-at-the-2004-democratic-national-convention.

5. J. Bradford DeLong, This Time, It Is Not Different: The Persistent Concerns of Financial Macroeconomics, in Rethinking the Financial Crisis, ed. Alan Blinder, Andrew Lo, and Robert Solow, New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2012.

6. Warren Buffett, Berkshire-Hathaway chairman's letter, February 28, 2002, Berkshire-Hathaway, www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html.

7. Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers, Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper 1950, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1 (1986): 15–78, available at NBER, www.nber.org/papers/w1950.

8. Примерный консенсус представлен: Ben Bernanke, Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis? Princeton University, December 1999, www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf; Kenneth Rogoff, Comment on Krugman, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1998): 194–199, www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1998/06/1998b_bpea_krugman_dominquez_rogoff.pdf.

9. Raghuram Rajan, Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? in The Greenspan Era: Lesson for the Future, Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2005, 313–369, www.kansascityfed.org/documents/3326/PDF-Rajan2005.pdf. Самой известной «Кассандрой» был Пол Кругман. См. его эссе It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 199, no. 2 (1998): 137–187; и его книгу The Return of Depression Economics, New York: Norton, 1999.

10. What Should Economists and Policymakers Learn from the Financial Crisis? London School of Economics, March 25, 2013, www.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?id=1856.

11. What Should Economists and Policymakers Learn…?

12. Carol Loomis, Robert Rubin on the Job He Never Wanted, Fortune, November 26, 2007, available at Boston University Economics Department, www.bu.edu/econ/files/2011/01/Loomis.pdf.

13. См. например, Chris Giles, Harvard President Warns on Global Imbalances, Financial Times, January 28, 2006, www.ft.com/content/f925a9e0-9035-11da-9e7e-0000779e2340; Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, The Unsustainable U. S. Current Account Position Revisited, in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007, 339–375, available at National Bureau of Economic Research, www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c0127/c0127.pdf.

14. Выступление на Форуме Центра исследований цен на ценные бумаги (CRSP), Центр Гличера, Чикагский университет, цитируется по изданию John Lippert, Friedman Would Be Roiled as Chicago Disciples Rue Repudiation, Bloomberg, December 23, 2008, available at John Lippert on the Chicago School, Brad DeLong's Egregious Moderation, blog, December 30, 2008.

15. Brad Setser, Bernanke's Global Savings Glut, Council on Foreign Relations, May 21, 2005, www.cfr.org/blog/bernankes-global-savings-glut.

16. Я считаю лучшим обзором Barry J. Eichengreen, Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses – and Misuses – of History, New York: Oxford University Press, 2015.

17. John Stuart Mill, Essays on Some Unsettled Questions in Political Economy, London: John W. Parker, 1844 [1829].

18. Nick Rowe, Money Stocks and Flows, Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, September 11, 2016, https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2016/09/money-stocks-and-flows.html.

19. Hyman Minsky, Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1986; Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, New York: Basic Books, 1978.

20. J. Bradford DeLong, John Stewart Mill vs. the European Central Bank, Project Syndicate, July 29, 2010, www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/john-stewart-mill-vs – the-european-central-bank; Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, The Safe Assets Shortage Conundrum, Journal of Economic Perspectives 31, no. 3 (Summer 2017): 29–46, available at American Economic Association, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.31.3.29.

21. Donald Kohn, Financial Markets and Central Banking, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November 28, 2007, www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20071128a.htm.

22. Мой взгляд на развитие Великой рецессии см. J. Bradford DeLong, Battered but not and Beaten, GitHub, October 29, 2010, https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/2010-10-29-battered-and-beaten.pdf.

23. Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, London: Henry S. King, 1873.

24. Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next One, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, October 15, 2015, www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/10-15-15pf.pdf.

25. Эти аббревиатуры означают the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Term-Asset Backed Security Loan Facility, the Home Affordable Modification Program, and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

26. Gore vs. Kemp: The 1996 Vice-Presidential Debate, YouTube, posted by PBS NewsHour, September 26, 2020, www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZCcSTz1qLo.

27. Lawrence Summers, The Age of Secular Stagnation, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2016, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-02-15/age-secular-stagnation.

28. См. Olivier J. Blanchard, Public Debt and Low Interest Rates, American Economic Association, January 4, 2019, www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/2019/aea-presidential-address-public-debt-and-low-interest-rates.

29. Barack Obama, Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address, White House, President Barack Obama, January 27, 2010, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-state-union-address.

30. John Maynard Keynes, How to Avoid a Slump, The Times, January 12–14, 1937, reprinted in John Maynard Keynes, Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 21, Activities, 1931–1939: World Crises and Policies in Britain and America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982, 390.

31. Ben Bernanke, The Near– and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy, August 26, 2011, archived at Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research (FRASER), https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/statements-speeches-ben-s-bernanke-453/near-longer-term-prospects-us-economy-9116; Cf. J. Bradford DeLong, Ben Bernanke's Dream World, Project Syndicate, August 30, 2011, www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ben-bernanke-s-dream-world.

32. Josh Bivens, The Reinhart and Rogoff Magical 90 Percent Threshold Loses Its Magic? Economic Policy Institute, April 16, 2013, www.epi.org/blog/reinhart-rogoff-magical-90-percent-threshold.

33. Ben Bernanke, Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis? Princeton University, December 1999, 14–15, www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf.

34. J. Bradford DeLong, Understanding the Lesser Depression (incomplete draft), Grasping Reality, August 2011, https://delong.typepad.com/delong_long_form/2011/09/understanding-the-lesser-depression-incomplete-draft.html.

35. Adam Tooze, Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World, New York: Penguin, 2018.

36. Franklin Delano Roosevelt Speeches: Oglethorpe University Address. The New Deal, May 22, 1932, Pepperdine School of Public Policy, https:// publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/academics/research/faculty-research/new-deal/roosevelt-speeches/fr052232.htm.

37. Geoffrey Ward, A First-Class Temperament: The Emergence of Franklin Roosevelt, 1905–1928, New York: Vintage, 2014, xv; Randy Roberts, FDR in the House of Mirrors, Reviews in American History 18, no. 1 (March 1990): 82–88.

38. Obama, 2010 State of the Union Address.

39. Cliff Asness et al., Open Letter to Ben Bernanke, Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2010, www.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-12460.

40. Leopold von Ranke, Preface: Histories of the Latin and Germanic Nations from 1494–1514, excerpted in Fritz Stern, The Varieties of History, Cleveland, OH: Meridian Books, 1956, 57; Max Weber, From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology, ed. and trans. C. Wright Mills and Hans Heinrich Gerth, New York: Oxford University Press, 1946, 95.